Can The Neocons Survive 'The New Phase' Of Their War On Russia?

Sep 21, 2023

Just Monday we were discussing the “new phase” of the Neocon’s war on Russia. That phrase was coined by Doug Macgregor in an interview with Glenn Diesen, in which Macgregor stated that Ukraine is no longer capable of offensive action, and that the “new phase” he foresaw would feature American involvement at an even deeper level. What Macgregor had in mind was this. The Neocons are desperate to get Russia to accept a “frozen conflict”, i.e., defeat and abandonment of the goals of the Special Military Operation (SMO). Their scheme for accomplishing that pie in the sky goal is to use long (or longish) range strike weapons to inflict damage on Russia proper (mostly in Crimea?), while pressuring Zelensky to forget our past aid guarantees, forget “as long as it takes”, and reach out to the Russians. Among all the difficulties of this scheme it’s hard to disagree with Zelensky’s publicly expressed opinion: The Russians will certainly recognize this as an admission of defeat by NATO and its Ukraine proxy—and will laugh it off.

The impracticality of it is also demonstrated by events last night. “Ukraine”—which is to say, NATO personnel directing NATO supplied missiles using US ISR assets—launched a huge missile/drone strike at Crimea. Russia’s world leading air defenses handled it all, which doesn’t bode well for the campaign:

Rybar Force
@rybar_force
Nighttime drone raid on Crimea At night, after a missile attack on Crimea, Ukrainian formations carried out a mass drone attack on the peninsula. Air defenses worked for more than an hour and a half, and the roar in the sky practically did not subside. The AFU attacked in waves: two groups of drones took off from Bilhorod-Dnistrovsky and headed towards the Saki airfield and Sevastopol, and two more groups flew from Kherson Region to Tarkhankut.
The Ministry of Defense announced the destruction of 19 drones in the NW and W of Crimea, as well as near Sevastopol. However, eyewitnesses report a larger number of targets shot down by air defense and suppressed by electronic warfare from Tarkhankut to Ivanovka and Razdolnensky District. These reports are indirectly confirmed by the Russian MoD's morning report, which claimed 75 drones destroyed in the past 24 hours - the highest number over the whole SMO. Nonetheless, Russian air defense, electronic warfare and border service rifle groups successfully repelled the attack. Statements that the airfield in Novofedorovka was damaged are false, since there were no fires or detonations that would have been visible if targets were hit.

9:25 AM · Sep 21, 2023

Back in DC, there appears to be a full scale civil war breaking out behind the scenes. The political wing of the Ruling Class is increasingly desperate to be rid of the grifting Biden Crime Family—a readily foreseeable eventuality, given that this wing has an election that they want to win. On the other hand the Permanent War wing is increasingly engaging in finger pointing and blame assignment, featuring anonymous CIA analysts maintaining “we told you so” to the Neocons and their DIA lapdogs. The bottom line here is pretty much the same as Macgregor expressed it. The CIA has recruited David Ignatius and Seymour Hersch to state for public consumption that the Neocons and their hapless frontman Zhou have no clothes. As Hersch puts it:

“The war is over. Russia has won. There is no Ukrainian offensive anymore, but the White House and the American media have to keep the lie going.
“The truth is if the Ukrainian army is ordered to continue the offensive, the army would mutiny. The soldiers aren’t willing to die any more, but this doesn’t fit the B.S. that is being authored by the Biden White House.”

But how long can this continue? Will the house of cards collapse if the Russians finally go on the offensive?

Some time ago, during the summer, we discussed the thesis put forward by Michael Vlahos, that the Ukrainian army was reaching the breaking point. It seems clear, now, that Deep State insiders know this is true, and the only option left is to try to gaslight the Russians into acting against their interests. Rational people know that won’t work.

An interesting sidelight to all of the above is that the Neocons appear to have recruited the Polish government to assist them in the campaign to get Zelensky to reach out to Russia (I say “Russia”, because I doubt Putin would speak to Zelensky). We discussed this yesterday. Now, in the background is a legitimate political problem for the Polish government. Ukraine is underselling Polish farmers with their cheap grain exports. The core of support for the Polish ruling party, Law and Justice (PiS), is the rural population, so naturally they need to show their supporters that they’re looking out for their interests. Another factor is the unpopularity of the millions upon millions of Ukrainians who have flooded into Poland—which has led to a dramatic drop in Polish support for Ukraine. All of this playing out against the backdrop of the approaching Polish elections. Just yesterday we read about the Polish president stating that Poland had no more weapons to send to Ukraine. Today, the party leader weighed in:

Rybar Force
@rybar_force
Kaczyński stated: "Poland will continue to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia, but there was no clause in our agreement that we would liquidate Polish agriculture due to the protection of Ukraine".
The PiS government has clearly found an excellent topic to divert attention from the corruption scandal and the migration issue. The authorities' rhetoric has focused entirely on national security and domestic policy.
10:08 AM · Sep 21, 2023

More ominously for Ukraine, however, was the suggestion by Polish president Andrzej Duda that Poland could block all aid to Ukraine that flows through Poland. He also likened Ukraine to a “drowning man”.

Duda got upset that Zelensky wanted to sue Warsaw for blockading Ukrainian grain and cancelled their meeting on the sidelines of the UN general assembly. More than that he compared Ukraine with a dangerous drowning man who could pull you down into depths with him.
Duda made it known to Zelenskiy, who is also in New York, that if the Ukrainian authorities continue the confrontation with Warsaw, then Poland can block the transit of military equipment, weapons, ammunition and everything else to Ukraine.

Now, probably the lion’s share of all aid to Ukraine does, in fact, flow through Poland. More specifically, it flows through the city of Rzeszów, near the Ukraine border. The US has a major military presence in Rzeszów, where our largest command and control center is located. Rzeszów is now the epicenter of US military operations directing the war on Russia:

Putin's war turned this little Polish airport upside down. It rose to the challenge.

Rzeszów’s airport, guarded by Patriot batteries, is now a heavy weapons hub. It’s also a hub for medical evacuations from Ukraine, for NATO personnel. Every time Russia hits a command center in Ukraine you’re likely to hear also about Medevac flights to Rzeszów.

All that being the case, who thinks the Poles threatened to cut off the flow of aid to Ukraine all on their own? Me neither. It seems pretty clear that the Poles are providing a thin cover for the US, as it pressures Zelensky to knuckle under: ‘Hey, sorry, it was the Poles who cut off your aid—nothing we can do about it!’

This is all a dangerous game for NATO, too. Other NATO countries, looking at Poland, will begin to ask, Why should Poland be allowed to look after its own interests but not us? This seems a clear indication of how desperate things are starting to look. And Russia is looking on with interest.

The Neocons and the Deep State are putting up a brave front. They’re trying to pressure Russia in Syria and Armenia. But Russia has played the North Korea card—undoubtedly with Chinese approval. My guess is that that cancels out any number of Neocon cards. The French have been forced to pull out of Niger—the strategic resources of the Sahel region are far more important to NATO and the EU then anything that Armenia can offer. No doubt there will be bumpy stretches ahead, but right now the future is looking bleaker for the Neocons. Oh, and Speaker Kev is having trouble drumming up more aid money for Ukraine. I presume that will happen, but going into 2024 this could become a big issue. I hope Trump gets his act together on that, instead of blathering about doing a deal in one day.

On the strictly military equipment front nothing is looking great, either. We know about the recruitment shortfalls and the preparedness issues. Who knew that the F-35 has to be abandoned by its pilot in “bad weather conditions.” Yeah, that’s the story I saw. But then there’s the hypersonic dilemma:

US Army's Hypersonic Missile Hit With Fielding Delay As China And Russia Lead Global Arms Race

Compare that with the first two items at this blog, which details that Russia now has cruise missiles that can hit anywhere in the northern hemisphere from inside Russian air space. Well, that’s not actually news, but the fact that Russia has adapted these missiles to lauch from multiple additional platforms is a major development.

Who’s idea was this war, anyway? Not too bright. Meanwhile, Blinken still claims to be intent on pivoting to war on China, once boy genius gaslights Putin into backing down from victory. Yeah.

Putin has his own ideas on increasing pressure: