That’s the topic that’s addressed by Zoltan Pozsar and Tom Luongo. It all plays into some of our recent discussions—none more so than the discussion of Luongo’s predictions for 2023 (Big Win For Kev? Maybe). I cautiously differed with Tom regarding the war predictions in his 10 point scenario. This morning Tom sounds a bit more optimistic that Powell can pull this out, as compared to Pozsar. Tom thinks (cautiously, because this is all predictive) that Powell will stick the interest rate rises out, while Pozsar believes Powell and the Fed will buckle and pivot—turn on the QE to fund war. That, in my belief, is what McConnell’s Great Betrayal was very much about—another attempt to force Powell’s hand, with WW3 very much in mind.
Powell has his hands full just trying to ease us down into a mild Depression. As for WWIII, which has apparently already started, where are the flags flying and the bands playing? This will be the first major war which may come to a close through lack of interest. What are today's ball scores? More shocking to me is an article by Debra Heine on January 6 in American Greatness. They now give out awards in the White House for those who participate in election fraud. How advanced our society has become when shoplifting and armed robbery are acceptable, and election fraud is laudatory. Sorry if I seem to treat the confrontation with Russia lightly, but the coming economic upheaval, now unavoidable, will be our most immediate concern. It goes without saying we are no longer a nation of laws.
Hello all! Hoping the New Year is treating you well.
"it appears that the Eurasian Multipolar front has come out ahead everywhere they’ve engaged." This specifically but the whole post stimulated my concern and thought about the persistence of Biden/Obama group with pursuing Iran and that debacle. If it's come kind of hedge against Eurasian Multipolar war consequences, wouldn't the consequences of the Middle East's resulting mess, while perhaps a bit more isolated, be a terrible outcome?
I don't think these are isolate, coincidental events. Confusing to me is using Russia to negotiate the Iran deal.
I think I have a headache and it's nothing like what may be the eventual outcome of the 'Biden' administration's program.
Dang, I feel I'm being so negative! I wish I didn't have cause - but sadly we all do. (WRH-Weiser)
Twitters de-Censorship is huge. It’s astonishing to read the tweets now, that were previously banned. Michael Flynn was just allowed back. The Covid Vax sudden death heart issues is trending and being discussed.
While the post didn't directly speak to Musks Twitter issue, it appears that may be an 'item of the decade'. Berenson noted cooperation of Pfizer and the White House with Twitter for censorship. I suspect it's just 'scratching the surface' so far. (WRH-Idaho)
I agree with nearly all the points above. However, one strange non-sequitur is the words of the Russian security minister. I would have thought that if the Russians were worried about fighting all Nato, they would get the Ukrainian boil lanced asap rather than going slow. Sure, taking their time does mean more cracks appearing in the Western facade, and further degrading of Ukie/Nato equipment, but it also gives the neocons more time to try something really stupid and dangerous.
I saw a tweet about that earlier today--before phys therapy. Powell says it diplomatically--we won't act unless Congress passes laws, which isn't about to happen now. Jamie Dimon, late last year, was completely UNdiplomatic while testifying to Congress. He said the Woke agenda is flat out crazy as a basis for economic decisions. Luongo says Dimon and the NY Boys own McCarthy. If so, climatistas are totally under the bus.
We watched The Menu this weekend as well. It was intense and certainly demonstrates the horrific changes in our society. What struck us the most is how no one tried to leave. Certainly mirrors the number of people who blindly followed "The Science".
Taking down Davos = starving them and the EU of money. The Fed has done this by draining liquidity out of the offshore Dollar markets, dissuading investment in the Euro currency and European debt via higher interest rates and larger credit spreads, and by now using SOFR (U.S. controlled) rather than LIBOR (Brit controlled), as the means of determining the interest rate at which major global banks lend to one another for short-term loans. This has put Europe in a position where they either have to try to support the Euro or try to support credit spreads; they do not have the financial wherewithal to do both.
Martyanov today--Gates and Rice parroted the Neocon CW back then, just as Zhou was doing in the video linked by Forbes:
the article in WaPo by Robert Gates and Condoleezza Rice titled Time Is Not on Ukraine’s Side. As is the case with many policy "pieces" in the United States it is written by people who fucked it up big time one way or another in their distinguished careers. Robert Gates, being a smart man, had his own delusions on the matters he was dealing with during his tenure as the head of CIA, Secretary of the State and SecDef. In the end, I remember his public speaking in 1996-97 (IIRC) at the Seattle's Madison Mayflower Hotel conference where he didn't understand that his threats to choke financially Yeltsin's Russia were a highly desirable act for those forces in Russia which, in the end, came to power due to US and NATO criminal idea to gang-bang Serbia in 1999.
They didn't. As part of the Deep State brotherhood, they just wanted someone who could be manipulated. Biden's incompetence only matters if elections matter. They no longer do.
Robert, I suggest that you do a search at the top of Mark's blog home page for "theory of." That will give you a list of blog entries that explain well the "macro" view of Luongo's geopolitical views from Mark's perspective (which is a very good one). After that, take a look at the blog entries under https://tomluongo.me/ for the last few years.
The Euro and the European banks have been in large part parasitical to U.S. monetary policy, the U.S. Dollar, and its backing based on the strength of the U.S. economy. In short we have financially supported Europe and its societal policies and have been expected to continue to do so by them interminably. The Fed by its actions (including replacing LIBOR with SOFR) has indicated that it wishes to exert sole influence over the monetary policy of the U.S., irrespective of any influences of the secondary currency and credit markets of the EU. Economic control is directly linked to political control and so the Fed acting in such a way is a means of extricating the U.S. from the political control of Europe - the Europe of the old colonialist financial powers and desired world domination to which Luongo often refers.
Still not convinced that Powell is the hero that Tom thinks he is. If he's doing good for the economy, it's not because he's some kind of peacenik; it's because he still has some sane economic bones in his body.
You may be right, and maybe even probably are, but if Davos is the villians' current means of getting what they want, then taking down Davos puts a stop to that, and even makes them take steps back just to reorganize and put some other plan into action. Which is always years in the working out. And God remains on His throne regardless of what they plan. Psalm 2 is one of my favorites.
My understanding is Luongo contends that the power the EU banks and their handlers have is derived through off shore banking. What Powel is doing (has done) is draing dollars from tjese off shore banks, thus depriving them of power. By 'power', he means these entities have for decades used these trillions to buy everything imaginable, including politicians.
A lot of money is made through shorts and longs on physical assets.
There has been a huge financialization, where for example physical gold was outnumbered by paper gold 100 to 1 at one point.
Precious metals are controlled through warehouses, that only allow x through put.
In the west there has been a focus on financial products, and physical production was outsourced to China. This was great for the environment in Europe.
The US was supporting Europe by giving them control of us interest rates through libor. That ended.
Now the us is increasing interest rates, and Europe is hurting.
And eith the increase in interest rates, money becomes more expensive.
And a lot of the value of a currency is based on trust. The seizure of Russian central bank assets destroyed that, plus the rampant inflation in the West. Germany 10%.
Countries that export actual physical products should do well as trades go outside the current systems that give a basically a tax to the West through financialization and use of their currencies.
It is complicated, and I've listened to all of Luongo's podcasts for the past five or six months.
But remember that the US Dollar is the global reserve currency. That means that when country A buys something from country B, the transaction is executed in dollars and those dollars go into country B's central bank. Country B now has dollars to play with, and ... forgive me my tenuous grasp ... those dollars get played and played and played through various instruments. The zero interest rates mean that those dollars cost nothing to play with, they're just tossed back and forth, fractionalized, derivativized, etc, without consequence.
By raising interest rates (and detaching the US banking system from the British LIBOR) this money now becomes expensive to play with.
Europe basically has no money of its own anymore and depends to a large degree on its dollar playground to attract investment capital. But with dollars starting to get expensive, investment has to flow to places where markets are real (or more real than Europe). This, combined with turning off the spigot of cheap Russian energy - is putting incredible strain on Europe's fake economy - a strain that the EU/Davos intended to leverage for a Great Reset arising from a managed catastrophe, but they're not ready. This is ahead of schedule and could very well crush them.
I don't think they see it as our money. Or, rather, they see anything that we own as potentially theirs.
So, no. They don't care. And Powell doesn't care about your savings account or your house. He cares about the viability of US banking. Once he takes down Davos, he will return to hoovering your assets.
Key to understanding US democracy--Who owns whom? It's a new concept: Democracy for the few. Huh. Actually sounds like Oligarchy. Go figure.
Tom Luongo (Give Deflation a Chance!)
@TFL1728
If they can't win by taking over the Fed from within they will try to take the Fed over from the outside.
Guess what? @WEF you lost the House. You won't finish destroying the US.
Who do you think owns AOC? Davos
Who do you think owns McCarthy now? NY Boys
And from this ^ perspective, it makes sense why Trump backed McCarthy. ..
Powell has his hands full just trying to ease us down into a mild Depression. As for WWIII, which has apparently already started, where are the flags flying and the bands playing? This will be the first major war which may come to a close through lack of interest. What are today's ball scores? More shocking to me is an article by Debra Heine on January 6 in American Greatness. They now give out awards in the White House for those who participate in election fraud. How advanced our society has become when shoplifting and armed robbery are acceptable, and election fraud is laudatory. Sorry if I seem to treat the confrontation with Russia lightly, but the coming economic upheaval, now unavoidable, will be our most immediate concern. It goes without saying we are no longer a nation of laws.
Hello all! Hoping the New Year is treating you well.
"it appears that the Eurasian Multipolar front has come out ahead everywhere they’ve engaged." This specifically but the whole post stimulated my concern and thought about the persistence of Biden/Obama group with pursuing Iran and that debacle. If it's come kind of hedge against Eurasian Multipolar war consequences, wouldn't the consequences of the Middle East's resulting mess, while perhaps a bit more isolated, be a terrible outcome?
I don't think these are isolate, coincidental events. Confusing to me is using Russia to negotiate the Iran deal.
I think I have a headache and it's nothing like what may be the eventual outcome of the 'Biden' administration's program.
Dang, I feel I'm being so negative! I wish I didn't have cause - but sadly we all do. (WRH-Weiser)
Twitters de-Censorship is huge. It’s astonishing to read the tweets now, that were previously banned. Michael Flynn was just allowed back. The Covid Vax sudden death heart issues is trending and being discussed.
Hey there Ray and Mark,
While the post didn't directly speak to Musks Twitter issue, it appears that may be an 'item of the decade'. Berenson noted cooperation of Pfizer and the White House with Twitter for censorship. I suspect it's just 'scratching the surface' so far. (WRH-Idaho)
So much there ...
Scott Ritter is back, too.
I agree with nearly all the points above. However, one strange non-sequitur is the words of the Russian security minister. I would have thought that if the Russians were worried about fighting all Nato, they would get the Ukrainian boil lanced asap rather than going slow. Sure, taking their time does mean more cracks appearing in the Western facade, and further degrading of Ukie/Nato equipment, but it also gives the neocons more time to try something really stupid and dangerous.
I saw a tweet about that earlier today--before phys therapy. Powell says it diplomatically--we won't act unless Congress passes laws, which isn't about to happen now. Jamie Dimon, late last year, was completely UNdiplomatic while testifying to Congress. He said the Woke agenda is flat out crazy as a basis for economic decisions. Luongo says Dimon and the NY Boys own McCarthy. If so, climatistas are totally under the bus.
That's what I'm betting on.
I’m betting on Syria getting very hot for the US.
Nothing would come as less of a surprise.
We watched The Menu this weekend as well. It was intense and certainly demonstrates the horrific changes in our society. What struck us the most is how no one tried to leave. Certainly mirrors the number of people who blindly followed "The Science".
Here is a video where Tom Luongo explains the conflict between the US Fed and the EU Central Bankers / "Davos Crowd". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDOWJjUTuTY
Taking down Davos = starving them and the EU of money. The Fed has done this by draining liquidity out of the offshore Dollar markets, dissuading investment in the Euro currency and European debt via higher interest rates and larger credit spreads, and by now using SOFR (U.S. controlled) rather than LIBOR (Brit controlled), as the means of determining the interest rate at which major global banks lend to one another for short-term loans. This has put Europe in a position where they either have to try to support the Euro or try to support credit spreads; they do not have the financial wherewithal to do both.
Gates commented Biden has been wrong on every foreign policy decision.
Then again, which has Gates been right on--from a long term perspective?
Martyanov today--Gates and Rice parroted the Neocon CW back then, just as Zhou was doing in the video linked by Forbes:
the article in WaPo by Robert Gates and Condoleezza Rice titled Time Is Not on Ukraine’s Side. As is the case with many policy "pieces" in the United States it is written by people who fucked it up big time one way or another in their distinguished careers. Robert Gates, being a smart man, had his own delusions on the matters he was dealing with during his tenure as the head of CIA, Secretary of the State and SecDef. In the end, I remember his public speaking in 1996-97 (IIRC) at the Seattle's Madison Mayflower Hotel conference where he didn't understand that his threats to choke financially Yeltsin's Russia were a highly desirable act for those forces in Russia which, in the end, came to power due to US and NATO criminal idea to gang-bang Serbia in 1999.
That's one thing that I can never forgive Barr and McConnell for--they figured a moron like Zhou was good enough for America.
They didn't. As part of the Deep State brotherhood, they just wanted someone who could be manipulated. Biden's incompetence only matters if elections matter. They no longer do.
Robert, I suggest that you do a search at the top of Mark's blog home page for "theory of." That will give you a list of blog entries that explain well the "macro" view of Luongo's geopolitical views from Mark's perspective (which is a very good one). After that, take a look at the blog entries under https://tomluongo.me/ for the last few years.
The Euro and the European banks have been in large part parasitical to U.S. monetary policy, the U.S. Dollar, and its backing based on the strength of the U.S. economy. In short we have financially supported Europe and its societal policies and have been expected to continue to do so by them interminably. The Fed by its actions (including replacing LIBOR with SOFR) has indicated that it wishes to exert sole influence over the monetary policy of the U.S., irrespective of any influences of the secondary currency and credit markets of the EU. Economic control is directly linked to political control and so the Fed acting in such a way is a means of extricating the U.S. from the political control of Europe - the Europe of the old colonialist financial powers and desired world domination to which Luongo often refers.
"I suggest that you do a search at the top of Mark's blog home page"
Oh my gosh! I didn't know that's how to do it. Now I can search all those imported posts! Thanks!
Still not convinced that Powell is the hero that Tom thinks he is. If he's doing good for the economy, it's not because he's some kind of peacenik; it's because he still has some sane economic bones in his body.
Tom doesn't think he's a hero - he says repeatedly that the Fed is not our friend, but 'the enemy of our enemy...'
And that is just the point: Powell is sane. Davos is not. As far as Davos goes, we are in a war over reality.
If Powell helps bring down Davos, I will gladly clean his shoes. With my hair.
If Powell only targets Savos it would be great, but would dall short, IMO. Think Rothschild and Bilderbergs as the real, bonafide villains.
You may be right, and maybe even probably are, but if Davos is the villians' current means of getting what they want, then taking down Davos puts a stop to that, and even makes them take steps back just to reorganize and put some other plan into action. Which is always years in the working out. And God remains on His throne regardless of what they plan. Psalm 2 is one of my favorites.
My understanding is Luongo contends that the power the EU banks and their handlers have is derived through off shore banking. What Powel is doing (has done) is draing dollars from tjese off shore banks, thus depriving them of power. By 'power', he means these entities have for decades used these trillions to buy everything imaginable, including politicians.
But thats my take, on fat thumb mobile.
Dave, thanks for the help. I've got so many things to catch up on ...
Mark, I thank you also for all the work you put into your posts. You keep me updated on more subjects than I ever could myself.
You're welcome!
A lot of money is made through shorts and longs on physical assets.
There has been a huge financialization, where for example physical gold was outnumbered by paper gold 100 to 1 at one point.
Precious metals are controlled through warehouses, that only allow x through put.
In the west there has been a focus on financial products, and physical production was outsourced to China. This was great for the environment in Europe.
The US was supporting Europe by giving them control of us interest rates through libor. That ended.
Now the us is increasing interest rates, and Europe is hurting.
And eith the increase in interest rates, money becomes more expensive.
And a lot of the value of a currency is based on trust. The seizure of Russian central bank assets destroyed that, plus the rampant inflation in the West. Germany 10%.
Countries that export actual physical products should do well as trades go outside the current systems that give a basically a tax to the West through financialization and use of their currencies.
It is complicated, and I've listened to all of Luongo's podcasts for the past five or six months.
But remember that the US Dollar is the global reserve currency. That means that when country A buys something from country B, the transaction is executed in dollars and those dollars go into country B's central bank. Country B now has dollars to play with, and ... forgive me my tenuous grasp ... those dollars get played and played and played through various instruments. The zero interest rates mean that those dollars cost nothing to play with, they're just tossed back and forth, fractionalized, derivativized, etc, without consequence.
By raising interest rates (and detaching the US banking system from the British LIBOR) this money now becomes expensive to play with.
Europe basically has no money of its own anymore and depends to a large degree on its dollar playground to attract investment capital. But with dollars starting to get expensive, investment has to flow to places where markets are real (or more real than Europe). This, combined with turning off the spigot of cheap Russian energy - is putting incredible strain on Europe's fake economy - a strain that the EU/Davos intended to leverage for a Great Reset arising from a managed catastrophe, but they're not ready. This is ahead of schedule and could very well crush them.
Mister, thanks for the Great understandable explanations.
I don't think they see it as our money. Or, rather, they see anything that we own as potentially theirs.
So, no. They don't care. And Powell doesn't care about your savings account or your house. He cares about the viability of US banking. Once he takes down Davos, he will return to hoovering your assets.
But that is tomorrow's war.