Building To War

Since the Congressional pledge of allegiance to the genocidal Zionist Project amid the national disgrace of a war criminal welcomed to address Congress, events have been happening quickly. Israel has bombed Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, and now has assassinated Hamas’ chief negotiator, Ismail Haniyeh, while Haniyeh was on a diplomatic visit to Iran. That’s just in case you thought that Israel is in any way interested in negotiations with anyone. It may be worthwhile to review events in the Middle East since October, 2023.

Netanyahu was facing an increasingly difficult political dilemma, with the possibility of losing an election and facing corruption charges looming large. Fortuitously or not, Israeli intel learned of a Hamas scheme to take Israeli prisoners to force an exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Somehow the Hamas raid was allowed to exit the Gaza concentration camp and stage a raid on Israeli occupation forces. Netanyahu took immediate advantage of what looks suspiciously like an Israeli enabled Hamas action to stage a state of existential warfare. In reality, it was the beginning of Netanyahu’s long held plan to create a Greater Israel. Think of it as comprising three stages: 1) Eliminate Gaza, forcing its inhabitants into Egypt; 2) Expand the Jewish takeover of the West Bank, with the same ultimate object in view—forcing the Palestinian residents to flee to other Arab countries; 3) Establish a security zone under Israeli control in southern Lebanon, up to the Litani River, by defeating Hezbollah. Ideally, this would be followed by a military accounting with Iran, with US involvement.

From the start nothing went according to plan—except a staggeringly inhuman genocide against the residents of Gaza. The Israeli occupation forces have shown an inability to establish military control over Gaza and to destroy Hamas as an effective fighting force. That, despite massive US involvement, both in supplying munitions as well as key intelligence assistance. The Israeli genocide would have collapsed long ago without that US involvement. The general consensus is that Israel is in no position to pivot to attacking Hezbollah, despite months of threats to do that. In the meantime Israel’s northern defenses are being systematically degraded and something like 100k Israeli settlers have been forced to leave the area. All this while the Israeli economy is in a deep depression caused by 3/4 of a year of high intensity warfare and the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea.

All the US support has not been enough to prevent Israel from falling into an increasingly tight spot. Thus Netanyahu now must realize that, while his grand plan for an apocalyptic birth of Greater Israel was always going to require US involvement, that day is coming sooner rather than later. But this comes at a difficult time. A contentious election is approaching in the US. Support for US wars on Russia and China are not widely favored. Even support for Israel is eroding—the Israel Lobby’s grip on Dem reps in Congress and even in the Senate is slipping. Major wars are probably the last thing American politicians want.

And yet. Jewish money continues to be the oil that keeps US politics humming. For this reason it may be that Netanyahu views this time as ripe for dragging the US into a major regional war in the Middle East—a war that could easily go global. The reasoning would be that in the likely scenario that, if Israel touches off a major war in which its existence appears threatened, then US politicians who want to keep the flow of Jewish money coming into their campaign coffers will fall all over one another in competition for that money. By launching the US into a war for Israel.

To me, this would explain Netanyahu’s repeated refusals to negotiate any sort of end to the war on Gazan civilians as well as the repeated and escalating acts of war against neighboring countries. Netanyahu has made no bones about it—Israel’s war on the Middle East requires the active and full support of “the free world”, i.e., the Anglo-Zionist empire. Alastair Crooke explains this dynamic in an article on a supposed Kama Sutra foreign policy. Note these fourt points that form the basis for what is developing: 1) The entry of the US must be hidden from the public—until it happens. That’s the easy part, since Americans pay little attention to the Empire’s overseas activity. 2) The war has evolved—Israel got itself into a jam. 3) The only way out of this jam is, paradoxically, to double down. 4) As always, the solution is seen as the resort to massive air strikes—a strategy that has repeatedly failed but to which Neocons are addicted. The very definition of insanity.

Just to be clear, an international crisis precisely is that which Netanyahu intends to begin to build out during his Washington visit. Of course, the address of Netanyahu’s ‘grand theme’ will be pursued quietly, away from the public gaze. Speaker Mike Johnson is convening a private gathering with Netanyahu alongside some of the most influential Republican mega-donors and political power players.

Netanyahu is on record that 7th October has evolved to become a war on Israel from all points of the compass, and that Israel needs the support and practical assistance of the “free world” … “at a time when it is more viciously demonized than ever”.

Whilst Hezbollah is being confronted daily by the IDF, it has manifestly neither been dismantled nor deterred. And that dictates that Israel cannot live with ‘terrorist armies’, openly dedicated to Israel’s destruction encamped at, and near, its borders, Netanyahu complains.

This constitutes ‘the imminent crisis’: The prospective Israeli military operation in Lebanon to push Hezbollah back from the border. Reportedly, the U.S. already has committed to limited support for this military objective.

But Netanyahu also insists that Israel needs the support and practical assistance of the ‘free world’ ‘to counter the regime at the heart of the existential threat – Iran’. What if Iran intervenes in Lebanon in response to a massive Israeli assault? Netanyahu casts this as the ‘barbarians’ coming for western civilisation – coming too for America as much as Israel.

The recent Israeli attack on Hodeida port in Yemen – at least in part – can be seen as an Israeli teaser clip to show the western world that Israel is able to confront adversaries at long distance (1,600 kms) showcasing its own in-flight re-fuelling capabilities for a large phalanx of aircraft. The raid inflicted heavy damage on the port. The message was clear: If Israel can do this to Yemen, it can (theoretically) strike at Iran, too.

Of course, hitting out at Iran is entirely a different proposition. And that’s why Netanyahu is seeking U.S. support.

There is a photograph of Netanyahu and his wife aboard the Wing of Zion (the new Israeli State aircraft) with a MAGA-style baseball cap on the desk beside him, only it is blue, not red, and is emblazoned with two words: “Total Victory”.

“Total Victory” plainly is Israel ‘winning together, with the U.S., in confronting Iran’s axis of evil’: Is the U.S. aboard? Or are U.S. foreign policy circles so distracted by the extraordinary succession events cascading out in the U.S. and Ukraine that the élites cannot, at the same time, attend to Bibi’s “crossroads of history”? We shall see.

This explains the Israeli attacks that appear to be designed embroil the US in the Israeli war not only on Lebanon but, as we see from the attack yesterday in Iran, with Iran as well. The idea here may be that, once involved, the US will find it impossible to go only half way.

Now, briefly, with regard to the transparent Israeli gaslighting that preceded the attack on Beirut, from naked capitalism:

Israel Assassinates Hamas Negotiator, Ismail Haniyeh, in Iran, Leading to Condemnation Across Muslim World; Israel Attempts Assassination of Hezbollah Leader in Beirut; Settler Brownshirt Rampage Against IDF Wins Knesset Backing

Israel’s justification is strained. Hezbollah took credit for attacking a military base in the Golan Heights, which by the way is disputed territory; Israel has occupied it since. Israel claimed that Hezbollah hit a schoolyard, which killed 12 children, and that legitimates the strike into Beirut.

First, Hezbollah does not target civilians. They have better things to do with their rockets. Second, Hezbollah pointed out if it had targeted the schoolyard, there would be a crater, as opposed to shrapnel. And there was no crater.

So the far more likely explanation is that an Israeli air defense weapon hit one of the Hezbollah missiles and it was the fallout that struck the schoolyard.

Third, it was Syrian children that died. Since when does Israel harbor such concern for non-Jews?

One has to wonder what madness has overtaken Israel’s government and much of its society, to think that attacking Hezbollah and Iran are national-security advancing strategies. The IDF resistance and no doubt numerous and pointed private warnings don’t appear to have penetrated the Zionist sense of entitlement.

Netanyahu’s intentions seem clear, but there are major risks involved. The biggest risk is that the US military is simply not ready for total war. And our highest command has warned Israel:

Killing a top Hamas official in Iran is clearly intended to drag Iran into the conflict in an open manner, since as many experts have pointed out, Israel sees no way out of the mess it has gotten itself into absent the US coming to its rescue. Yet it seems highly unlikely that head of the Joint Chiefs Charles Brown was misleading Israel when he warned that the US really could not do much to help, particularly given that that sort of message would go over badly among the many bought and paid for AIPAC stooges in the Beltway.

No doubt Netanyahu is gambling on his control of US politicians (which is no longer complete) to carry the day for total war. However, forcing a war may also force the hands of Russia and China in support of their regional partners—including Iran and Syria. Iran is vowing a “severe revenge”. Russia also issued a strong statement.

In the meantime the US military—with little public reaction—continues to talk up war with China, at the same time that Russia is carrying the day in Ukraine, going from strength to strength while the US military is in a state of low preparedness for a major war.

Here are two commentators speculating on Russia’s war plans:

Will Schryver: What’s Next?

Summary

I believe the Russian winter offensive will seek to destroy the remaining AFU forces east of the Dnieper, in both the Donbass and Kharkov regions. To do so, I expect Russian forces to move in force south from Belgorod and north from Zaporizhzhia.

In other words, I expect the Russians to effect a pincer movement to cut off AFU forces in eastern Ukraine, and to block their escape routes to and across the Dnieper River.

Once that is accomplished, I expect them to advance westward to Transnistria and the Danube.

Big Serge: Where might Russia commit forces on an offensive? Let's do a quick parsing of the situation and examine the possibilities.

Let's contemplate big arrow scenarios. There are four broad possibilities, so let's consider them in turn. The first (1) is for an operation aimed southward on the west bank of the Oskil river. This is one that I find appealing. (8/N)