The news today on the Pentagon leaks consists of claims that the FBI led investigation is making progress and that the chief suspect is a “gun enthusiast” who supposedly shared the documents in a gaming chatroom. You can read about this at Zerohedge:
Biden Says Feds 'Getting Close' To Finding Leaker As "Young Gamers" On Discord Theory Emerges
The fact is that there is little support for any of this, and especially not for the WaPo propagated narrative that a “gun enthusiast” in his 20s who “worked at a military base” shared the docs on a Discord chatroom.
I have to say that I’m skeptical. Yesterday I listened to Tony Shaffer discussing the leaks with Andrew Napolitano. I have no brief for Shaffer in general, but he certainly has the sort of background that demands that his views be considered seriously. According to Shaffer, documents of the sort under discussion would be highly restricted and would have received “eyes only” handling. As a result, Shaffer maintains that the number of persons with access could be as few as 15. A 20 something “gun enthusiast” who “worked at a military base” would likely not have been among that number. That sounds reasonable to me.
Regarding the actual conflict in Ukraine, there have been a number of informative reports that have a bearing on what we should expect in the coming months. I won’t get too far into the weeds here— Simplicius the Thinker’s latest SitRep will do that for you. Instead I’ll highlight some reports of developments that are likely to make a significant difference and aren’t too speculative.
A lot of these reports focus on one of the major revelations/confirmations in the Pentagon leaks—the near collapse of the Ukrainian air defense (AD) system. Larry Johnson today points to the leak docs to support this assessment:
To put it in layman’s terms, Ukaine no longer has an Air Defense capabililty that can shoot down Russian missiles and combat aircraft flying above 20,000 feet. This turned out to be a prescient assessment. During the past three weeks, the Russians have been using more aerial delivered bombs launched by combat aircraft and have scaled back the use of missiles. And no, that does not mean Russia ran out of missiles, it is simply more cost effect and more lethal to drop 500 kilo and 1500 kilo bombs on Ukrainian positions. This fact also helps explain why Ukrainian casualties have gone up.
This, of course, fits in with the recent reporting of increased Russian aircraft activity. Regarding these “aeriel delivered bombs,” the really bad news for Ukraine and its allies is that these bombs are “glide bombs”, which are not only very large but are also very accurate and can be launched from a distance of 60km and from altitudes above 20k feet. The Russians have been building up their stockpiles of these and even larger such bombs, apparently in anticipation of this neutralization of Ukrainian AD capabilities. These bombs, unlike artillery, will make short work of reinforced concrete fortifications that the Ukrainians have relied upon in urban areas.
Also on the smart bomb front, it has turned out that the J-DAMs that the US has been providing to Ukraine have had serious problems, as reported by Politico:
Russia jamming U.S. smart bombs in Ukraine, leaked docs say
A separate technical problem, since fixed, had been causing the munitions to fail.
There are actually two stories here. The first is that the JDAMs that have been delivered have proven defective—at least in “some” cases. The other story is that Russia is jamming the GPS guidance systems that these bombs use.
American-made smart bombs are falling victim to Russian electronic jamming in Ukraine, causing them to miss their targets, according to leaked documents and confirmed by a Defense Department official.
In some cases, the weapons were also failing to detonate due to a technical issue, which Ukrainian troops have since addressed.
This confirms reports, which we have followed from the beginning of the conflict, of highly effective Russian EW capabilities. Simplicius embeds a video that we previously featured, of Dr. Philip Karber’s presentation on Russian capabilities which he delivered at West Point back in 2018: Dr. Phillip Karber on the Russian Way of War.
In related reporting, Simplicius highlights this:
A new report from B. Chance Saltzman, Chief of Space Operations for the U.S. Space Force, claims that Russia is interfering with U.S. satellites.
According to a top general in the U.S. Space Force, Russia has taken to using space weapons in its war against Ukraine. Russian forces have been jamming GPS signals from American satellites that are used by Ukrainian troops.
That appears to be confirmation for the Politico report.
Simplicius also highlights some Western assessments of Wagner PMC’s combat performance. Western reporting likes to characterize Wagner as a mercenary outfit largely composed of ex-cons, but the reality is that they are mostly highly experienced and trained ex-regulars who serve on a contract basis. They correspond in that respect with Western formations of the same type, but appear to be far more capable in conventional warfare. I’ll quote at length here, because I believe this will be of interest to readers. Simplicius, after discussing the continued advance of Wagner in and around Bakhmut, quotes a source:
This comes on the heels of many new, frank admissions by the U.S., such as a sudden newfound respect and fear of Wagner group:
US military experts are concerned about the effectiveness of the Wagner PMCs – a source in the US Defense Ministry said.
As DC Weekly writes experts of the Ministry of Defense conducted an in-depth analysis of the activities of the Wagner PMCs and came to the conclusion that no American, British or French similar structure can compare with their units.
Insiders in the Ministry of Defense are concerned about the Wagner PMCs, because it is the most highly organized and combat-ready PMCs in the world, surpassing even the American Blackwater PMCs, the British Aegis Defense Service PMCs, the French Salamandre PMCs," writes the author of the publication Peter Carroll.
The author notes that, among other things, the mentioned Western PMCs have never encountered operations and tasks that the Wagner PMCs successfully performs.
Thanks to the highest level of training and equipment, the Russians operate at a level previously unattainable for private military companies.
An unnamed Pentagon official involved in this type of operation in Afghanistan said: "Their effectiveness is absolutely staggering. If we had used similar strategies in Afghanistan, we would not have created the mess we left behind in the Middle East."
According to many expert estimates, the Wagner fighters perform a number of tasks of increased complexity and risk. These are not only traditional tasks for all PMCs, such as the protection of diplomatic missions and civilian operations.
These are, in general, the most complex combat operations in their implementation: ground attacks, control of artillery, aviation weapons and the use of air defense systems.
As the author notes, the fighters of the Wagner PMCs perform reconnaissance tasks, information collection and data analysis, which were later used to make strategic decisions during missions.
This further explains why the Russians take such great care to minimize casualties among such a highly skilled force.
Finally, also from Simplicius’ lengthy SitRep, Simplicius quotes a nine part twitter thread that claims to detail what the Russians have learned from their claimed recovery of the MQ-9 Reaper drone from the Black Sea:
Cicke
@Cicke69
#RussianArmy has reportedly been able to recover valuable components of the downed #USA MQ-9 #Reaper #UAV in the Black Sea
/1
I'm debating the 'Putin is a criminal madman bent on restoring imperial Russia through territorial expansion' case vs. 'Russia was justifiably provoked for decades before it started its SMO in Ukraine' case with an 'American Patriot' friend. Can anyone point me to a good and comprehensive written analysis of the 'Russia was justifiably provoked' case? Thanks.
This caught leader is typical intelligence patsy... total bs.
https://www.youtube.com/live/Gh9CxQ2C0qI?feature=share