Briefly Noted: The French Gambit

Readers will likely be aware of the tag team visit of Le Petit Roi Macron and Ursula the Lionhearted to Beijing. It turned out to be a shambles, with Xi clearly irked by Macron and Ursula snubbed and subjected to indignities (passport checks, etc.) at every turn. On the other hand, the US and its vassal states in the collective West were predictably outraged at Macron’s seeming attempt to channel de Gaulle vision of a leadership role and “strategic autonomy” for France in world affairs. On the other hand, Macron was undoubtedly voicing the concerns of at least some other EU countries—Germany?—when he spoke of Europe wishing to avoid getting caught up in crises that “are not ours.” Since he went on to discuss Ukraine and Taiwan with Xi as well as “de-dollarization” the response of the Zhou regime wasn’t long in coming:

Jim Rickards

@JamesGRickards

Ditching the dollar is not just a developing market thing. Macron says it's time for Europe to do the same. Says it's time for Europe to reject the "extraterritoriality of the U.S. dollar." The U.S. Treasury will be the last to know their time has passed.

zerohedge.com

Macron Says Europe Should Reduce Dependence On US Dollar, Seek 'Strategic Autonomy'

Some in Europe have complained about “weaponization” of the dollar by Washington...

Dollar hegemony—its “extraterritoriality”—is what makes it well nigh impossible for Europe to avoid getting drawn into the geopolitical strategems of the American Empire and it running dog Anglosphere lackies, particularly its ambition to reduce Russia and China to abject submission.

And so today we read that the US is dispatching top Treasury operatives to Europe to demand that the US sanctions line be toed—fully implemented.

US Will Threaten Europe To Implement Sanctions On Russia

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via AntiWar.com,

Two officials from the Treasury Department will visit European allies to demand trade with Russia ends...

The White House plans to send a clear message to its European partners in the economic war against Russia, "you are either with us or against us." Two US Treasury officials will visit European and Central Asian partners next month to demand all sanctions on Russia be implemented.

Yeah, right—a “clear message” to “partners”. Since when do partners issue ultimatums to other partners? You’re either with us or against us.

Treasury officials Liz Rosenberg and Brian Nelson will meet with leaders of financial institutions in Switzerland, Italy and Germany. The AP reports the officials will have a simple message, "1. Continue to provide Moscow with material support or 2. Keep doing business with countries that represent 50 percent of the global economy."

Rosenberg and Nelson will provide their European counterparts with intelligence on alleged sanctions evaders. If those countries fail to crack down on those still doing business with Russia, then Washington is threatening to issue "penalties." It is unclear how far the Joe Biden administration is willing to punish NATO allies for violating sanctions.

The policy echoes President George W. Bush’s doctrine that countries must either actively align with Washington in its Middle East wars, or else be judged as working "with the terrorists."

It is unclear how Europe will respond to the Joe Biden administration’s threats.

The problems with this approach are clear. The US claim that the collective West represents “50 percent” of the global economy is based on the highly suspect GDP measure. Full implementation of sanctions against Russia—and maybe later against China—will crush the German economy, among others in the EU. Moreover, since it’s the US that defines the extent of sanctions, the hypocrisy involved is pretty glaring—the US simply exempts itself from sanctions that would be inconvenient. Then again, there’s the case of Japan, which has also received exceptions. One can easily imagine that the Germans and French are chafing at a sanctions regime under which they will end up having to knuckle under to the diktats of the US, UK, Poland, and the Baltics.

Interestingly, while Macron dutifully delivered a message to Xi from the US regarding Taiwan and Ukraine, Xi made no attempt to hide his exasperation with “warnings” from the Zhou regime. That has been the whole point of China’s refusal to communicate with Zhou, and delivering “warnings” via third parties isn’t going to change China’s attitude. On the other hand, Macron later met privately with Xi and, according to Politico.eu, Macron was far more accommodating on the issues of both Taiwan and Ukraine. Accommodating enough that the French government had to require Politico to tone down Macron’s remarks.

My guess is that the changes in the dynamics of the world order—kinetic military as well as monetary and economic dynamics—have already gone too far for the US to continue to issue ultimatums to NATO nations of the stature of Germany and France. These countries are economically dependent on China and are not interested in the US determination to subjugate China through a probable combination of military and economic warfare. They can see the end game approaching in Ukraine. And when that happens, the idea of a war on China will go up in flames.

In the meantime, the drama will continue. For a time.