Briefly Noted: Russia's Nuclear Message
There has been a bit of a buzz on the interwebs—not so much on the MSM as far as I can tell—about the Russian warnings to the UK and FR. We alluded to all this yesterday. Briefly, Russia announced that its Southern Command would be conducting practice for the use of tactical nukes “in Ukraine and elsewhere”. This was part of a warning that if Ukraine uses UK and FR missiles to strike Russia, then Russia will consider that an act of war by UK and FR. Seems fair enough.
In addition, as also noted yesterday, Russia announced that the appearance of F-16s—which are nuclear capable—in the skies over Ukraine, regardless of their configuration, would be treated as if they are carrying nuclear weapons. To my mind that means something very much like this: We will treat the appearance of F-16s as the prelude to a nuclear attack on Russia and will respond accordingly.
FAFO continues... Russia will interpret the presence of F-16 aircraft in Ukraine, regardless of their configuration, as potential carriers of nuclear weapons, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. The ministry further stated that Russia retains the right to respond symmetrically if American-made ground-based INF missiles surface, irrespective of the location. The term "INF missile" refers to Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) missiles. These were ground-launched ballistic or cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (approximately 310 to 3,417 miles). The INF Treaty, signed between the United States and the Soviet Union in 1987, aimed to eliminate these missiles and their launchers. The treaty was a significant arms control agreement during the Cold War era, and it helped reduce the risk of nuclear war in Europe by removing a class of weapons that could reach targets relatively quickly. However, in 2019, the United States withdrew from the INF Treaty, citing alleged Russian violations and concerns about China's growing missile capabilities. This withdrawal has raised concerns about the potential for a new arms race and increased tensions between major powers.
In an effort to get the import of this message across, the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the UK and FR bozos stationed in Moscow. Here is Megatron’s version:
Russia has officially warned UK and France that it will target their military bases.
The Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov yesterday summoned the ambassadors of Britain and France and officially informed them that if Ukraine fired long-range missiles, provided by these two countries, on Russian territory, Russia would consider this a declaration of war and targets British and French military bases around the world.
Previously, the UK Secretary of Foreign Affairs, David Cameron, said that Ukraine received permission from the UK for this type of attack.
Yesterday, according to the British media, China hacked their Ministry of Defense and all the downloaded information is already available to Russia. http://t.me/megatron_ron
Doug Macgregor’s version is in even starker terms:
Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavarov summoned British and French Ambassadors to the Kremlin to warn them that an attack on Russian territory with their long range weapons may prompt a Russian response against UK & French bases.
Russian General Staff is also reportedly considering plans for nuclear strike on Ukraine's training base Selidovo, which has many foreign soldiers and instructors.
Looking at the map Selidovo is not far from Donetsk City.
The Russians can easily use Iskander Missiles with conventional warheads to destroy any facility in that town. However, It seems Moscow’s patience with Biden and the DC Clown Show is at an end.
Macron clearly pushed too far and we did nothing to him.
Bottom Line: Moscow will no longer tolerate strikes on its territory.
Moscow is also unwilling to pretend that we and other NATO members are not co-belligerents. In sum, Washington’s proxy war in Ukraine on Russia’s doorsteps must end.
Given that Ukrainian Forces are defeated and collapsing, it would be wise to suspend further military aid and tell Kiev to ask for a ceasefire.
Failure to do so could precipitate a European war with Russia for which the US Armed Forces are not prepared.
5:45 PM · May 6, 2024
Is the starkness of Macgregor’s warning warranted? Or was the Russian rhetoric intended merely to get Russia past Putin’s May 7 inauguration without a major incident? In defense of Macgregor’s assessment it is a fact that Putin never seems to bluff. Further, it is well known that Russia has been gearing up its defense industry to an extent that has stunned the collective West—as well as leaving the West in the dust. The West appears to have done nothing in preparation for a showdown except to run down what military assets it still retains, while the US sails around the Middle East getting its own bluff called by the Houthis. I would not want to bet against Macgregor’s assessment that Putin and the Stavka have concluded that they are now prepared for all eventualities.
The Russians are now calling every US/NATO bluff. As are the Iranians and the Chinese. The empire is playing a dead-man's hand.
MoA adds his two cents at the end of a pretty thorough post:
No western force is currently configured and equipped to defeat a near peer competitor force. Twenty-five years of 'war on terror' have left those armies in a very sorry state. At least during the first year of an expanded war their troops would have no chance to survive. The Russian forces, by now a well oiled machine with plenty of excellent weapons, would defeat them within one or two weeks. What then?
Since February 2022 Russia's old and new president Vladimir Putin has warned against all interventions:
Let me emphasise once again: if anyone intends to intervene from the outside and create a strategic threat to Russia that is unacceptable to us, they should know that our retaliatory strikes will be lightning-fast. We have the tools we need for this, the likes of which no one else can claim at this point. We will not just brag; we will use them if necessary. And I want everyone to know this; we have made all the decisions on this matter.
Here’s a Russian perspective which is, well, perhaps more measured:
Rybar Force @rybar_force
 Regarding nuclear exercises, underground resistance, and stressing the population
Yesterday's statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding exercises involving the use of tactical nuclear weapons, as well as the summoning of the British and French ambassadors, should be viewed somewhat differently than the rest. This is part of the mirror measures to raise the stakes in the conflict, which all sides are now taking.
We should also add the actual confirmation of support for a widespread partisan movement throughout Ukraine: work on its formation has been underway since the start of the SMO, but not long ago the relevant structures were given the green light to significantly scale up the entire partisan network.
Could they [the Russians] have done it earlier? Yes. But they decided to act consistently, tying the events to the new presidential term (they need to start on a bright note), as well as gradually raising the stakes.
6:29 AM · May 7, 2024
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It is certainly impossible to say that exercises with the use of tactical nuclear weapons open a kind of Pandora's box. This is, first of all, a logical continuation of the measures that have been awaited for quite some time both in Russia and in the world. At the same time, we admit the possibility of limited use of tactical nuclear weapons against some targets as part of the ongoing hostilities, as a further raising of the stakes. This option cannot be ruled out.
Ultimately, all this, in addition to the mirror raising of the stakes, will lead to the main goal - stressing the Western population.
Let's be honest: in this case, the West and the globalists will be able to derive their own benefit from the situation, because they will get a population that is frightened by the possibility of nuclear escalation. It is easier to control the stressed population.
I’m not sure I’m persuaded by Rybar. It seems to me that most in the West are largely turned inward and are in denial regarding the possibility that chickens abroad could come home to roost. On the other hand, the military establishment may be getting stressed. We shall see.
I think it was The Duran commented the French President Macron has seen the need to project a tough guy image since his party is trailing in the Eu elections. The picture of him boxing, threats of French troops to Russia, etc.
Various corners of the internet are reading a lot (way too much, IMO) into Patriarch Kirill's inaugural blessing today (below) as some sort of spiritual green light to unleash holy hell on the Ukes and their allies. This is the problem--relations have deteriorated below even the Sovietologists-reading-tea-leaves levels of the Cold War, such that wild speculation exists where, if we had any diplomats left at this point, we could just #$#%ing talk to the Russians. Their leadership has been very clear in all of this to anyone willing to listen.
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(Blessing as reported in The Guardian (yeah, I know...)):
In a subsequent blessing held in a church, the Russian Patriarch Kirill compared Putin to the legendary medieval prince Alexander Nevsky, saying that he “did not spare his enemies, but he became famous as a saint.
“The head of state must sometimes make fateful and formidable decisions,” he said. “And if such a decision is not made, the consequences can be extremely dangerous for the people and the state. But these decisions are almost always connected with victims.”