Brief Update: Lebanon, Syria

We’re starting to get a bit clearer picture of what’s going on in Syria. The terrorist offensive is being heavily supported by Turkey—captured HTS terrorists claim that some of their officers are actually Turkish army officers. The HTS has been trained and equipped by a consortium of Anglo-Zionist allied military and intel services—US, Israel, Turkey and others. The HTS force committed to the offensive itself is large—about 15K—and well equipped with NATO tanks and other weaponry.

On the other side are Russia, Syria, and Iran—with Hezbollah in the wings, as well. Russian strikes are reported to have inflicted heavy losses and there are no reports of lost attack aircraft—suggesting that Turkish support for HTS has limits. Syria’s military is rushing forces to the front, to some effect.

For an overall view of what’s going on I highly recommend Desperate Escalations in Middle East & Ukraine - Alastair Crooke, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen. Crooke’s view is that Turkey is hoping to establish a “buffer zone” along its border against the Kurds in Syria, but also to cut Iranian supply links across Syria to Hezbollah. While this last objective plays well with US and Israeli aims, Erdogan’s main aim is to limit Iranian influence in the Arab Sunni world, which has been increasing. The hope on Erdogan’s part is that the new Trump 2.0 regime will look favorably on Turkey’s role in this, and to that end Erdogan has also revived the idea of Turkey purchasing the F-35.

Initial indications are that Erdogan will emerge the loser. The Arab world appears unimpressed. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have spoken out in support of Syria—confirming their rapprochement with the Assad government. That also bodes ill for any Trump attempt to revive the failed “Abraham Accords.” The Anglo-Zionist consortium is not winning over the Arab world with this renewal of war. Obviously, this may take some time to play out fully.

Crooke also offered his view on what was behind Israel’s agreement to a truce in Lebanon.

First, Israel suffered very heavy casualties in Lebanon—both in killed and wounded/disabled—as well as heavy equipment losses. The IOF is burned out and needed a break badly, after accomplishing next to nothing on the ground.

Second, anger and resentment within Israeli society was threatening the collapse of Netanyahu’s coalition. The anger is occasioned by the fact that Ashkenazi Jews are being required to send their sons to die and be disabled, while the Orthodox are still exempt from military service.

Third, Netanyahu is aware that Trump wants an end to these wars. Netanyahu hopes that the ceasefire will win favor with Trump early on, and that he can parley that later into the ultimate goal: US war on Iran.