Brief Ukraine Update; Disarray In Poland?
This update may be brief, but the implications may be important for the months ahead. It appears that the Russians are taking limited offensive actions, targeted at creating local cauldrons that cause maximum damage to the Ukrainian force structure. That will presumably create gaps in the lines or cause a thinning out of the lines—to be exploited as opportunity offers.
We’ve seen this going on in the Kupyanks direction, not far from Kharkov—the Russians have trapped a large concentration of Ukrainian forces on the east side of a river, with the bridges behind them blown. Now it appears that Russia has launched a serious offensive to surround Avdiivka, which is one of the major locations from which the Ukrainians have been bombarding the civilian population of Donetsk. Now:
Russian troops broke through near Avdiivka. The offensive is underway
Battle for Avdiivka: Looming encirclement of Ukrainian garrison 12 pm, October 10
Early in the morning, Russian troops began massive fire training on the Ukrainian fortification in Avdiivka. The number of shells fired in one day was truly unique. Both artillery and FAB-1500s from the UMPK were used.
FAB-1500s are 1500 lb. glide bombs that can be launched from a distance and strike with more precision. They are far more powerful than most missiles and certainly than any artillery.
After the artillery preparation, the Russian assault squads also launched an attack from the south from the direction of Spartak. According to preliminary information, the Russian Armed Forces occupied a section of the E50 road south of the fortified area.
It is reported that Russian paratroopers launched an attack from the direction of Krasnohorivka in the direction of the railroad. As a result, the Russian Armed Forces have surged towards Berdychy - fighting is taking place on the approaches to it.
For now, the configuration of the front at the site is covered with a fog. It is possible that the Russian army fighters broke through the defense near the railway line and, bypassing Petrovske, reached Berdychi. The AFU has problems with communication between units.
Given the lack of clear coordination between the AFU units, the attack was a surprise for them. However, in the near future reinforcements may be transferred to stabilize the front, so it is important to consolidate the achieved success. After Berdychy, it would be most logical for the Russian forces to knock the AFU out of the hills adjacent to the northwest. They offer a view of the Orlovka-Lastochkino line, which, with simultaneous movement from the south (Opytne - Vodyane), will create big problems for the enemy at Avdiivka.
#RussianArmy has started a huge attack in the front of Avdivka/Авдіївка this morning preceded by intensive bombardment during the last few days. Let us remember that the city is a very important bastion for the #UkrainianArmy as it allows it to maintain a continuous bombardment on the city of Donetsk, which has been a headache for the Donetsk People's Republic during these almost ten years of conflict. The capture of Avdivka would mean an end to this almost daily shelling. However, the battle will not be easy for the Russian army, as it requires a considerable number of troops to carry out the enveloping movement that forces the Ukrainian withdrawal from this place. Direct assaults are useless in the face of the enormous amount of fortifications present within the locality, so we will witness fighting on the outskirts from the north, south and east after the arrival of numerous reinforcements to the region in recent weeks, reinforcements that had hardly taken place previously in an axis where the Russian forces, and more specifically the Republican militias have been in a minority with respect to the Ukrainian side. To see Wagner's troops in this front will allow us to know if it is the second Bakhmut that was so much predicted.
Now, here’s an interesting development with regard to the upcoming Polish elections:
The commanders of the Polish army have tendered their resignations. The resignations were submitted by General Raimund Andrzejczak, the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army, and General Tomasz Piotrowski, the Commander of the Operational Staff. Both commanders' resignations were delivered to the Presidential Chancellery yesterday. A spokesperson for the Operational Command confirmed that General Piotrowski had indeed submitted his resignation notice. Not want to stay for the disaster?
I frankly don’t know whether this is a purge or a vote of no confidence in the government’s policy of war on Russia. Either way, it seems to me to be a very bad look going into the elections—it shows disarray in the defense establishment at a time when NATO can ill afford turmoil of this sort in a frontline state. There is speculation that the resignations were timed to harm the ruling Law and Justice Party’s (PiS) electoral chances. PiS will almost certainly finish first, but this could increase the chances that it will be forced into a coalition with Ukraine-skeptical parties. The military has great prestige as an historic institution in Poland, and especially in the conservative constituencies:
2 top Polish military commanders resign in a spat with the defense minister
The resignations have provoked questions about the state of Poland’s military under the current conservative government at a time of war in neighboring Ukraine.
Polish media have long reported on growing tensions between the two commanders and Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak.
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Poland will hold an election on Sunday, with voters deciding whether the incumbent conservative and euroskeptic government should stay in office for another four years in an unprecedented third term, or whether the pro-European opposition should take power.
It seems very unlikely that the pro-EU parties will be able to form a government. The real issue is whether PiS will be forced into a coalition.
Some political observers suggested that the resignations were timed to coincide with the election.
“It is a symbolic decision. They decided to take this step just before the elections to show that they do not have confidence in this political class,” Jacek Czaputowicz, the former foreign minister in the current government, said on news portal Onet.pl.
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Opposition leader Donald Tusk said that he received information that 10 other top generals were resigning. The military command denied the claim.
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Media reports, including the Rzeczpospolita daily, said the two generals objected to the armed forces being used in the government’s election campaign.
Rzeczpospolita (The Republic) is considered the “paper of record” in Poland and is classed as “center right”.
All of this turmoil in Poland follows closely on the recent elections in Slovakia. The Slovak government was turned out and the new government has halted military aid to Ukraine.
Mark, why are you covering this? Ukraine is so yesterday. Do try and keep up with the current thing!
Since the US was clearly behind the coup in Ukraine in 2014 and a reported (and ignored by the “press”) 14,000 ethnic Russians killed in Donbas and other areas of eastern Ukraine from 2014 to 2022, and Putin’s response was ubiquitously labeled an unprovoked invasion, will these same people call an invasion of Gaza an unprovoked attack or will they once again prove themselves total hypocrites?