Brief Afternoon Iran Update 4/8/25

This morning I described the differing accounts between Trump’s version of the projected talks with Iran on Saturday and Iran’s own account.

Trump will need to climb down from his maximalist demands and will need to approach direct talks gradually by proving good faith through indirect talks, but Iran will make a concession that will also please Russia and China.

This afternoon we have some specifics—I highly recommend the entire article:

Iran demands US ‘goodwill gesture’ before possible direct talks – Reuters

Trump said on Monday that “very high-level talks” would be direct, but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has stated they would remain indirect.

A regional diplomat told Reuters, citing Iranian officials, that for direct talks to happen there must be a “goodwill gesture.”

The US should “lift some sanctions or unfreeze some money,” the diplomat reportedly said.

Washington has imposed extensive sanctions on Tehran over the country’s nuclear program, targeting its economy, financial system, and energy sector.

In 2015, Iran signed UN-backed agreement – known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – to curb its nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump withdrew the US from the deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions.

Since returning to office in January, Trump has reinstated his “maximum pressure” policy, accusing Iran of seeking to develop a nuclear bomb and imposing fresh sanctions on the country’s oil sector.

Tehran denies pursuing nuclear weapons, maintaining its nuclear activities are peaceful. It has repeatedly criticized the US sanctions as illegal and unjustified.

In an opinion peace published by the Washington Post on Tuesday, Araqchi called Iran’s preference for indirect negotiations a “strategic choice,” citing “serious doubts” about US intentions, worsened by threats to resume “maximum pressure” tactics before talks.

I guess we’ll find out who wants negotiations more—Trump or Iran. Trump has previously demanded face to face negotiations. Iran has rejected direct negotiations, but now says it could be flexible—for a price. Trump is finding out that negotiating via bluster with seasoned veterans like Russia and Iran isn’t so easy.

Gilbert Doctorow has a very interesting interview with RT regarding the likelihood of a U.S. attack on Iran. Doctorow believes the likelihood is low for two reasons: 1) Unlike Libya, Iran has powerful friends (Russia and China), and 2) Trump can’t risk a possible multi-front war (to varying degrees, but possibly including a reunification of Taiwan to China) at the same time that he’s conducting an economic revolution. Doctorow regards the movement of military hardware to be mostly posturing.

Another good, and brief (13:07), video is Danny Davis with Steve Jermy:

What's Trump Doing in Yemen?

Lastly, the rumors of a coming major Russian big arrow pincer offensive keep building. I suspect this will factor into the Iran situation as well. Attacking Iran while walking away from Ukraine won’t be a good look.