Big Serge has a fascinating substack out today in which he discusses two distinctly different types of modern warfare, working from the Franco - Prussian war of 1870 and the analysis of its Prussian protagonist, Helmut von Moltke (the elder). Serge then applies his insights to the conflict in Ukraine. I will attempt to expand on his discussion somewhat. First, here is the substack:
Ukraine blew up the Kakhovka Dam and has been shelling civilians in Donetsk for a decade while Russia has barely touched Ukraine’s infrastructure, Russian oil and gas is still flowing to Ukraine.
Seems like Russia is still hoping for a popular revolt against the regime.
Israel's ability to generate and win a People's War also relies on a unified home front. For the time being, that seems to be the case, but for how long? As this war drags on, it is very likely that Israel will fracture even further.
The West seems to be in the denial stage, where they are hyping the situation is a stalemate and hope for a Korean DMZ type ceasefire. And the U.S. and West have held back giving the Ukrainian’s the weapons they need to win. And Russian casualties are a bit higher than Ukraine, but they can sustain it since Russia is 3x the size. So a ceasefire would allow Ukraine re-arm, and get admitted to NATO. And Russia has turned its military on a dime, so it’s not our fault Russia is doing so well. And just give a few more years and the West can rebuild its ammo stock.
Looks like General Nuland and Lieutenant Blinken planned a quick and easy “cabinet war” for Ukraine to take down Russia, starting with orchestrating economic sanctions…when that failed, and peace talks were skuttled, a full-on “people’s war” was launched, with Col Z leading the charge. The rest…brutal war of attrition by Russia which our Neocons have no answer to…Putin has come out the victor in a war he never wanted. Now he is imagining the future…will have to listen to the Duran fellows for more details!
He has to take Odessa. Without it, Ukraine is truly a landlocked rump state, US/Nato forces in Romania will be hamstrung, and any dream of the UK et al having a presence in the Black Sea will be over
Interesting point. A lot of people characterize our Civil War as "the first modern war". I didn't know about Sheridan visiting Germany, but I'm sure all Euro nations followed events in North America closely.
LOL details re those plants. However I've gotta be very skeptical re Bryen's narrative that somehow Russia turned its military around on a dime in 2022. That sort of thing just doesn't happen in the real world.
Interesting how he compares the past to current situation with Putin.
Also S.Hersh has an article out today. 90% I disagree with him. I absolutely cannot see how Putin would agree on Ukraine being in NATO. Maybe it’s just me....
Yeah, me too. Bryen, in the article Ray links to (below) says that's flat out "impossible." I agree. Bryen also cites a very recent statement by Lavrov saying he sees no peace floaters "from Kyiv or its masters [i.e., US]." Note that he says Kyiv, a city, not Ukraine, a country. That's another sign that Russia no longer even considers Ukraine as presently constituted to be a sovereign nation.
Gotta agree with you on the ludicrous idea that Putin would be ok with a Ukrainian NATO membership! Not no, but HELL NO. More neocon wishful thinking. Putin is absolutely going to squeeze this situation for all it’s worth and has no interest in anything that provides a face saving exit for the US. This situation will not have a happy ending for the neocons.
That seems the most likely possibility. US is trying to float proposals through unofficial channels hoping the Russians will respond. They won't. They require the US to make official overtures.
BTW, I am glad that you and Ray could decipher my typo. When I saw it, I thought for a minute that I was talking about Hillary Clinton (how her shins would enter into things, I am not sure).
Ukraine blew up the Kakhovka Dam and has been shelling civilians in Donetsk for a decade while Russia has barely touched Ukraine’s infrastructure, Russian oil and gas is still flowing to Ukraine.
Seems like Russia is still hoping for a popular revolt against the regime.
Israel's ability to generate and win a People's War also relies on a unified home front. For the time being, that seems to be the case, but for how long? As this war drags on, it is very likely that Israel will fracture even further.
4 stages of grief
Shock
Anger
Denial
Acceptance
The West seems to be in the denial stage, where they are hyping the situation is a stalemate and hope for a Korean DMZ type ceasefire. And the U.S. and West have held back giving the Ukrainian’s the weapons they need to win. And Russian casualties are a bit higher than Ukraine, but they can sustain it since Russia is 3x the size. So a ceasefire would allow Ukraine re-arm, and get admitted to NATO. And Russia has turned its military on a dime, so it’s not our fault Russia is doing so well. And just give a few more years and the West can rebuild its ammo stock.
5 steps
1. Disbelief
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance
Thanks!
And there is no set order, and stages can be experienced simultaneously.
Yes, people can vacillate between 1 and 4 for quite some time until they have to accept reality.
I think the NeoCohens are like you said, experiencing 1 through 4 all at the same time right now.
In fact, I think Putin could throw a Victory Parade in Kiev and they would still think there's a chance they could win.
Ray, if this is referring to the neocons, you forgot the 5th Stage: move on to the next project.
And declare total victory complete with a parade while the media gaslight America
Looks like General Nuland and Lieutenant Blinken planned a quick and easy “cabinet war” for Ukraine to take down Russia, starting with orchestrating economic sanctions…when that failed, and peace talks were skuttled, a full-on “people’s war” was launched, with Col Z leading the charge. The rest…brutal war of attrition by Russia which our Neocons have no answer to…Putin has come out the victor in a war he never wanted. Now he is imagining the future…will have to listen to the Duran fellows for more details!
2nd Lieutenant Blinken, Lieutenant gives him too much credit.
Right!
Yeah, U R right, Mark.
Also I just can’t see how The Vlad won’t take Odessa. I mean just look up the history of the city.
He has to take Odessa. Without it, Ukraine is truly a landlocked rump state, US/Nato forces in Romania will be hamstrung, and any dream of the UK et al having a presence in the Black Sea will be over
Mercouris assumes so, too, as do I.
Can you guys read S. Hersh’s story? Perhaps I can copy/paste it.
There is no fricking way The Ruskies would agree on it. Highly doubt.
Don't c/p. I think the consensus is: nfw.
Do you think Moltke was influenced by the tactical & strategic events of the American Civil War? We know Sheridan visited Germany in 1870.
Interesting point. A lot of people characterize our Civil War as "the first modern war". I didn't know about Sheridan visiting Germany, but I'm sure all Euro nations followed events in North America closely.
Fascinating details on U.S. 155 shell manufacturing:
https://weapons.substack.com/p/risking-natos-future-for-expansion
LOL details re those plants. However I've gotta be very skeptical re Bryen's narrative that somehow Russia turned its military around on a dime in 2022. That sort of thing just doesn't happen in the real world.
Agree on the turning the military around, it’s b.s.
It’s justifying the original decisions to set up this trap for Russia of an Afghan 2.0
It’s just those dastardly Russians turned it’s military on a dime, totally not our fault.
Interesting how he compares the past to current situation with Putin.
Also S.Hersh has an article out today. 90% I disagree with him. I absolutely cannot see how Putin would agree on Ukraine being in NATO. Maybe it’s just me....
If Putin agreed to that, he would be out of office faster than lightning.
Yeah, me too. Bryen, in the article Ray links to (below) says that's flat out "impossible." I agree. Bryen also cites a very recent statement by Lavrov saying he sees no peace floaters "from Kyiv or its masters [i.e., US]." Note that he says Kyiv, a city, not Ukraine, a country. That's another sign that Russia no longer even considers Ukraine as presently constituted to be a sovereign nation.
Gotta agree with you on the ludicrous idea that Putin would be ok with a Ukrainian NATO membership! Not no, but HELL NO. More neocon wishful thinking. Putin is absolutely going to squeeze this situation for all it’s worth and has no interest in anything that provides a face saving exit for the US. This situation will not have a happy ending for the neocons.
Analysis of S Hersh article, his article seems to be behind a paywall:
https://weapons.substack.com/p/is-the-hersh-story-on-secret-ukraine
Her shins a mouthpiece for someone. It sounds like he succeeded in delivering a message to Moscow, if that was even needed.
That seems the most likely possibility. US is trying to float proposals through unofficial channels hoping the Russians will respond. They won't. They require the US to make official overtures.
Seriously, is this high school?
BTW, I am glad that you and Ray could decipher my typo. When I saw it, I thought for a minute that I was talking about Hillary Clinton (how her shins would enter into things, I am not sure).
Please don't bring up Hillary's shins, Jeff. Just don't! :)
Agree 100%
You're welcome!