Battle Damage Assessments

Before we get to the BDA stuff, just a heads up that Trump continues to win on the lega front at home. The SCOTUS has put a brake on “universal” or nation wide injunctions. It appears there’s a tiny loophole, but there should be a dramatic decrease in these abuses. There was also a SCOTUS ruling that upholds parental rights to shield children from perverts in the schools. Maybe more later.

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I say “battle” in the title above rather than “war”, because very few people think that the Anglo-Zionist war on Iran is actually over. It’s in abeyance, and Israel will be seeking to gin it up again. In the meantime, Israel has tried to strictly censor—i.e., cover up—the damage that it suffered, but details are starting to seep out. Larry Johnson covers that today. You can read his post, but for my purposes I’ll simply paste in his cool map, which explains the significance of each target. Israel wants the world to think that Iran was simply targeting civilians, but that is very far from the truth—and this picture helps make that clear:

Israel Suffered Extensive Damage

Will Schryver, for his part, emphasizes how unprepared the US and Israel were for the Iranian missile onslaught, which proved largely unstoppable. Trump allowed Mossad and its agents in the administration (many appointed by Trump) talk him into the fantasy that Israel could collapse the Iranian regime. This led to Trump essentially bribing Iran—with promises of sanctions relief—to allow a ceasefire to get us out of the unwinnable war that sane people had predicted:

Will Schryver @imetatronink

20h

 Not only the Israelis are "shocked and awed" by what Iran did, but the Americans are, too.

That's why they felt compelled to seek an exit at any cost — even a staged strike / counterstrike whereby everyone could then claim victory.

But the scoreboard is plain to see.

Why would Iran agree to this, when it was close to destroying Israel’s air defenses? Two reasons, perhaps. Sanctions relief is important for Iran’s economy. Also, the imbalance of Iran’s defenses—lack of a modern air force as part of its air defenses hampered its offensive actions—was allowing damaging Israeli stand off strikes. With the ceasefire in place for a time, Iran is off in pursuit of fixes to its air defense shortcoming. That includes Chinese J-10CE fighters, due to the slow pace of Russian deliveries of Su-35s (h/t to the commenter who pointed that out to me a few weeks ago), but could also include upgrades to their radar capabilities, etc. The Chinese, who are not engaged in a hot war like the Russians are, are well positioned to rapidly upgrade Iran’s capabilities. Here’s a link to an article that explains the dynamics of all this—as well as explaining why you shouldn’t necessarily trust the views of a former marine tank repair tech on modern air defense:

Could Modern Su-35 or J-10C Fighters Have Saved Iran? Ex-U.S. Marine Analyst Triggers Debate

Will Schryver also linked to Israeli Channel 13, and I’ve inserted a complete transcript. The admissions are important and relate to LJ’s map, above:

Suppressed News. @SuppressedNws

JUST IN: CH13's Raviv Drucker:

“We have to say that there's a bit of an Iranian aspect to the way we report the missile hits to our side. I'm not talking about the Weizmann Institute, but there were a lot of missile hits in IDF bases, in strategic sites that we still don't report about to this day. And there's a clear reason for that, which everyone at home understands. But alongside that clear reason it created a situation where people don't realize how precise the Iranians were and how much damage they caused in many places.”

From B.M.

3:40 PM · Jun 26, 2025

Lastly, another transcript—this time Max Blumenthal discussing with Glenn Diesen the status of the ceasefire, what led to it and what to look forward to. Read this in the context of Trump’s “diplomatic” posturing about new initiatives in the Middle East.

Max: The Israelis have said that this phase [of the war] is not over and that they intend to go back in, in some capacity—probably within the realm of the gray zone where they have some deniability. But the ceasefire that Trump orchestrated—which he thought would be some kind of diplomatic master stroke—will not hold.

Glenn: Well you did call the strike. I remember before we went to Iran last month I asked you when the strike would come, if it would come when we were there. I remember you suggesting it would come later. But I guess to a large extent it was predictable, given that Israel saw an opportunity to weaken if not knock out Iran--even though I think that was a bit overly optimistic on Israel's side. You mentioned that Trump wanted to get Netanyahu off his back and mollify the Israelis. Do you see this as being the reason behind the strike? Attacking the nuclear facilities and also allowing Iran to then retaliate against the US military base in Qatar, in in order for the conflict to come to a natural end? Why did Trump go through all of this? Was it seen as a mistake to start a war to begin with, or did Trump give a green light to Israel to begin with, to start this war with Iran?

Max: Well, definitely, Trump greenlit the Israeli attack.

Glenn: But he thought it was going to be a knockout blow, or what? Did he change his mind thereafter? How did this work?

Max: He may not have understood how he would be drawn into a much larger conflict. My understanding of Trump's thinking is, first of all, I think the paradoxical component here is that Trump--and I would assume Rubio, Secretary of State--saw Iran correctly as the adult in the room that could be counted on to retaliate in a sort of symbolic way in order to restore its dignity and demonstrate some deterrence against the US, without going too far. Iran demonstrated that with the attack on the Al Udeid base, giving warning to Qatar. Then Qatar came in as the diplomatic negotiator. This has been confirmed by the Emir's diplomats--that Trump called them and said, we want you to initiate a ceasefire now. They did so. And what Trump thought what he was going to do was give each side the ability to claim victory-- including himself, the US--through his kind of porn themed Operation Midnight Hammer, where Iran just got demolished and then he would call it a day.

Steve Bannon--Trump's former chief of staff who's been one of the chief critics of Trump falling into the Israeli trap--has said this is a one-off: 'We're not going back.' This is what Trump thinks. This is the dynamic he believes he has engineered, and he believes he has control. ... So Trump thinks that by engineering this ceasefire and giving each side the ability to claim victory he has possibly won a Nobel Prize, and that's what he really wants. Trump didn't want to be a war president. I don't think he personally supported striking Iran, and he certainly doesn't support an open-ended conflict with a regional power like Iran that would plunge his presidency into complete chaos and ruin. He's mentally lazy. He wants to be liked. He wants to be liked by everyone, including the Iranians, including the Ukrainians, including the Russians. He wants to be seen as a historic world leader, but he doesn't realize that while Iran has been the adult in the room there is a psychotic stepchild that's been in the attic, coming out every once in a while to cause destruction in the house. And that's Israel. And Israel is not going to allow this ceasefire to stand. They've said so, and they will do everything they can to prevent Iran from recovering its air defenses and its deterrence. Israel did do significant damage to Iran's anti ballistic missile launchers. They claim they destroyed 50%. I doubt it's that high, but we saw video which confirms these weren't decoys ... And this led Iran to launch more kind of hit and run attacks, where you would see shorter volleys than the ones that initially Iran responded with during True Promise 3. They also did significant damage to Iran's air defenses, but Iran will be able to repair it all and possibly--through Iranian cooperation with China, as we saw with Pakistan--actually significantly improve its radar and anti-aircraft defense systems. That's what I assume is taking place as Iran's defense minister meets with Chinese and Russian counterparts.

So Israel's in a race against time, but Donald Trump has opened a Pandora's box. He doesn't quite understand what he's done, but I think that later on in his final term this will come back to haunt him.

Glenn’s question here is interesting, because this is exactly what we’re seeing now. Contrary to the claims of Trump and his minions about “obliteration,” the Israelis are adamantly maintaining that the key Iranian capabilities were not destroyed.

Glenn: But in order for Israel to end the ceasefire and restart the war--not only restart it, but pull America into this, because it does appear Israel would need the assistance of the United States in terms of the weaponry and well also its fighting power--wouldn't Israel first need to crush the claim of Trump that the nuclear facilities were completely demolished? Because if you accept the premise that they were demolished, then the reason for the war is over. As JD Vance said--in an awkwardness--'we're not at war with Iran, we're at war with their nuclear program.' Now let's say we buy into that argument, then they would first have to destroy that position before they're able to pull America back into this.

Max: Yeah, and I think it's important to watch JD Vance, because my understanding is that he was the key figure in the administration in making this a one-off strike and engineering the ceasefire. He really wants it to stick. He wants this to be his legacy, because he will inherit the mantle of Trump. And you're right. This attack on Trump--which is based on real intelligence, unlike Russia Gate--for not destroying Fordow and not eliminating the stockpile, as Iran moves to prevent IAEA inspectors from entering, because they have clearly collaborated with the Israelis and the Americans, Raphael Gy's performance has been odious he's colluded to make this war possible and Iran potentially leaving the NPT--it will put more pressure on Donald Trump to go back in.

So, I want to kind of mock the Trump administration for launching this strike and failing, but at the same time I kind of want [Trump’s] narrative to stick, because it means Iran will be left alone and there can be international cooperation again. But that's not where Israel wants to go. And we can actually hear it from Israeli pundits. One Israeli pundit on Israel channel 24 just launched into a rant about 3 days ago, declaring that Trump had failed and that the only way is to blow it up from the inside, and that what they've done is disastrous because it's going to be that much harder to get the Trump administration and the US to attack again.