Alexander Mercouris gave a very shrewd analysis yesterday of what’s going on with the US decision to provide ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. The US had long said it wouldn’t provide these long range missiles (~103 or 190 mile range depending on variant), but now …
The number of traitors within the Russian elite has been calculated. The percentage of officials and major businessmen who are ready to make concessions to the United States and Europe in exchange for the lifting of sanctions has been announced. Retired FSB General Alexander Mikhailov explained which way the wind blows.
The simple truth that the neocons don't understand the US intel and the military is apparently not telling them is that Russia has escalation dominance. End of story.
1. Increases pressure on Russia to sue for peace by threatening deployment.
2. Gives Ukraine ability to stop coming Russia offensive, and stop uneven Ukrainian losses to Russia (10 to 1 perhaps).
3. Enable Ukraine to retake Crimea by punching through Russian Lines.
4. Carrot / trade to get Ukraine to agree with peace with Russia.
5. Keep narrative of wonder weapons will enable a Ukraine victory.
My 2 cents:
Not much different than the threat from the storm shadows, about the same range. Ok, storm shadow is air to ground, vs ground to ground. Russia missile defenses adapted. As well as dispersing targets. If deployed, there will be minimal impact on the battlefield.
I would imagine Ukraine had a similar ground to ground missile left over Soviet Era equipment. Russia has historically had more ground to ground missiles models and quantity than the U.S. The US substituted air power. What happened to the Ukrainian missiles?
Fresh off her big trip to Ukraine, Victoria Nuland says one "axis" of current US strategy is to “put some of Russia's most precious assets at risk." This as strikes on Russian territory have increased sharply, and the US will reportedly be sending long-range ballistic missiles
Gosh, I have a hard time understanding how this latest greatest domino theory - the one that begins by toppling Russia - isn't going exactly according to plan. I mean the last domino theory, where Afghanistan then Iraq and then the whole Middle East would fall, went so well. Didn't it?
Just the threat will bring those cowardly Russians begging for peace!
This will give Ukraine a breather till after the 2024 election to create their fourth army using refugees deported by Germany and Poland, since Russia destroyed the first three.
The difference between the Afghanistan War and the Ukraine war is huge. The seemingly weekly announcements of $5 billion here, $20 billion there being sent to Ukraine (recall the bad press vis a vis the paltry amounts being given to the Maui residents?-- can you say BAD optics). VERY different war strategies and very very different economy. People are noticing look at the polls. You are comparing apples to oranges. Plus the formidable Russian military versus guys in sandals with Kalishinokovs 😳 not quite a hyper sonic missile 😳😳
The anger is there, but rallies & protests have been squashed by the resident admin's response to Jan 6. Plus an ongoing narrative that anyone who doesn't support the war is pro Russian & against "democracy." I think the general public is more stymied by how to protest without winding up on an intelligence/FBI domestic terrorist list or in a dreadful gulag indefinitely w/no hope of bail or a fair speedy trial.
"Whether anything helps Americans is not of concern to either party." You also posted "both political parties are corrupt and have been since the 1800s" That may be, but now is different. It is now open. The curtain has been pulled back. We no longer count. They intend staying in power no matter what we think. As in 2020, no entity exists that will true the vote. Furthermore, they assume we are sheep. Serfs. I hold this is a mistake on their part. Nothing could be further from the truth. The American public is mostly aware of the corruption, and totally turned off. Biden commands respect? From who? The people who are using him? I read today "A CBS News/YouGov poll found that 48% of adults under the age of 30 support sending U.S. troops to defend Ukraine." Who believes CBS? Or the media in general? It is possible for the foreseeable future they manage to stay in power. It is also highly possible they believe they have full control over us and all the resources of this Country. They don't. We are on to them. They have Artificial Intelligence on their side. We have American ingenuity, and an ability to adapt. We understand them. They will never understand us.
They have AI, but we have ingenuity and adaptability. That kinda sounds like, Russians have battlefield superiority, but Ukrainians have courage and elan vital.
What happens next is not so clear to anybody, but my guess is they make a mess of everything, and this time the American public will not be there to bail them out. We will be busy living our lives and ensuring the well being of those near and dear to us.
Interesting post:
The number of traitors within the Russian elite has been calculated. The percentage of officials and major businessmen who are ready to make concessions to the United States and Europe in exchange for the lifting of sanctions has been announced. Retired FSB General Alexander Mikhailov explained which way the wind blows.
https://open.substack.com/pub/slavlandchronicles/p/tsargrad-about-30-of-russias-elites?r=rd4dp&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Looks like the joke, as Kundera so aptly put it, is up - except this time, it’s on us.
Since a bunch of comments have drifted to the effect/non-effect of American apathy on the war, here's my worry on that self-obsession - https://mikehampton.substack.com/p/united-93-crashed-into-me-yesterday-9-11
The simple truth that the neocons don't understand the US intel and the military is apparently not telling them is that Russia has escalation dominance. End of story.
ATACMS Potential US Goals:
1. Increases pressure on Russia to sue for peace by threatening deployment.
2. Gives Ukraine ability to stop coming Russia offensive, and stop uneven Ukrainian losses to Russia (10 to 1 perhaps).
3. Enable Ukraine to retake Crimea by punching through Russian Lines.
4. Carrot / trade to get Ukraine to agree with peace with Russia.
5. Keep narrative of wonder weapons will enable a Ukraine victory.
My 2 cents:
Not much different than the threat from the storm shadows, about the same range. Ok, storm shadow is air to ground, vs ground to ground. Russia missile defenses adapted. As well as dispersing targets. If deployed, there will be minimal impact on the battlefield.
I would imagine Ukraine had a similar ground to ground missile left over Soviet Era equipment. Russia has historically had more ground to ground missiles models and quantity than the U.S. The US substituted air power. What happened to the Ukrainian missiles?
I didn't vote for this. Did you?
Michael Tracey
@mtracey
Fresh off her big trip to Ukraine, Victoria Nuland says one "axis" of current US strategy is to “put some of Russia's most precious assets at risk." This as strikes on Russian territory have increased sharply, and the US will reportedly be sending long-range ballistic missiles
Gosh, I have a hard time understanding how this latest greatest domino theory - the one that begins by toppling Russia - isn't going exactly according to plan. I mean the last domino theory, where Afghanistan then Iraq and then the whole Middle East would fall, went so well. Didn't it?
ATACMS Is out of production, waiting for a new design to be approved. My guess is US only has a maximum 2500 left.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS
Hah. So what number would suffice the saber rattling and the big bluff? 150?
Neocon Dreams:
Just the threat will bring those cowardly Russians begging for peace!
This will give Ukraine a breather till after the 2024 election to create their fourth army using refugees deported by Germany and Poland, since Russia destroyed the first three.
Ah, to be an “ally” of the American Empire. “Let’s you and him fight.”
If I were Putin I'd wait for the moment that would inflict the most damage to the NeoCon/Biden Admin.
That moment, if it presents itself would be after Biden secures the nomination, let's say March 2024.
Then go all out on Zelensky and Co.
Take'm out and hang around the Uniparty's neck until the election.
Trump wins in a landslide
I couldn't have said it better 👏🤣
As Mercouris would add, “anyway, we’ll just have to wait and see.”
The difference between the Afghanistan War and the Ukraine war is huge. The seemingly weekly announcements of $5 billion here, $20 billion there being sent to Ukraine (recall the bad press vis a vis the paltry amounts being given to the Maui residents?-- can you say BAD optics). VERY different war strategies and very very different economy. People are noticing look at the polls. You are comparing apples to oranges. Plus the formidable Russian military versus guys in sandals with Kalishinokovs 😳 not quite a hyper sonic missile 😳😳
The anger is there, but rallies & protests have been squashed by the resident admin's response to Jan 6. Plus an ongoing narrative that anyone who doesn't support the war is pro Russian & against "democracy." I think the general public is more stymied by how to protest without winding up on an intelligence/FBI domestic terrorist list or in a dreadful gulag indefinitely w/no hope of bail or a fair speedy trial.
"Whether anything helps Americans is not of concern to either party." You also posted "both political parties are corrupt and have been since the 1800s" That may be, but now is different. It is now open. The curtain has been pulled back. We no longer count. They intend staying in power no matter what we think. As in 2020, no entity exists that will true the vote. Furthermore, they assume we are sheep. Serfs. I hold this is a mistake on their part. Nothing could be further from the truth. The American public is mostly aware of the corruption, and totally turned off. Biden commands respect? From who? The people who are using him? I read today "A CBS News/YouGov poll found that 48% of adults under the age of 30 support sending U.S. troops to defend Ukraine." Who believes CBS? Or the media in general? It is possible for the foreseeable future they manage to stay in power. It is also highly possible they believe they have full control over us and all the resources of this Country. They don't. We are on to them. They have Artificial Intelligence on their side. We have American ingenuity, and an ability to adapt. We understand them. They will never understand us.
They have AI, but we have ingenuity and adaptability. That kinda sounds like, Russians have battlefield superiority, but Ukrainians have courage and elan vital.
@perle
I absolutely agree with you that the curtain has been pulled back...like never before.
But what happens next is not so clear to me...
What happens next is not so clear to anybody, but my guess is they make a mess of everything, and this time the American public will not be there to bail them out. We will be busy living our lives and ensuring the well being of those near and dear to us.
That is their plan. We are smarter and more resourceful than them. Those dependent on them will yes suffer.
New party……..The GNP, oh not Gross National Product, but that’s an important focus of a G[b]rand New Party.