As Long As It Takes--Middle East Edition

“As long as it takes” never seems to mean what it sounds like. The American Empire and its NATO vassals are walking it back in Ukraine, grudgingly, but now we’ve opened a new “as long as it takes” front—Yemen. It’s off to an inauspicious start, with Zhou openly admitting that the Houthis aren’t deterred by our bombing and missile attacks. The attacks on commercial shipping connected to Israel, the US, and the UK continue. Nevertheless, despite the lack of effect, Zhou says the bombing will continue.

Will Schryver @imetatronink

The US declares its intent to play whack-a-mole with the Yemenis "for as long as it takes".

Stupid is as stupid does.

#TheBigAttrition accelerates.

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OSINTdefender @sentdefender

The Biden Administration has reportedly now Agreed with U.S. Defense Officials of the need for a Large-Scale Sustained Military Operation against the Houthi Terrorist Group in Western Yemen, following 10 Days of Missile and Airstrikes which have Failed to End the Houthi’s Attacks on Commercial Shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden; Officials have stated that they do not expect for the Operation to Drag-On for Years like previous Wars in Iraq or Afghanistan, but that they will not have a End Date set for the Operation.

9:20 PM · Jan 20, 2024

They don’t expect the operation to “drag on” but have no end date to offer. Where have heard that before? It’s a bad thing when you start out with no end in sight, while still engaged elsewhere. Especially when your opponents have escalation dominance. Word is that the Houthis are planning what they’re calling Al Aqsa Triangle:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

Reports from Yemen that the Houthis plan to close all three waterways in the Middle East.

According to an exclusive Yemeni source, Ansarullah is considering implementing a plan they call the 'Al-Aqsa Triangle', by closing all three of the Middle East's major waterways: Bab Al-Mandab, Strait of Hormuz, and the Suez Canal.

This will stop the oil and gas feeding Israel from Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. @Middle_East_Spectator

9:13 AM · Jan 20, 2024

There are many problems with this naval operation, but a very basic one is the lack of munitions for anything except a short term operation—possibly a very short term operation. That makes a mockery of the whole concept of “as long as it takes,” which becomes, “as long as it takes but not that long.”

Will Schryver explains why the long term could end up being so short. He’s talking here about the missile attacks on our bases in the deserts of Syraq, but it also applies to our naval war near Yemen:

Not Ready for the Big Leagues

Our major bases, like Al Asad (which came under a major missile attack over the last few days) are “protected” by Patriot systems. On the way to church this morning I did a bit of mental math and came up with an estimate that as many as 100 Patriot missiles may have been expended against just that one attack—there have been over 140 attacks so far against various bases in the region. Our total Patriot inventory is under 5000, and our manufacturing capacity for these expensive missiles is only about 500/yr. With similar numbers in mind, Schryver calculates:

To adequately cover even one of these large airbases against missile strikes of just 100-200 units of high-performance drones, cruise-missiles, ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles — plus numerous decoys — would easily require an entire Patriot battalion.

Even with a 100% interception rate, a pair of 100-missile strike packages over the course of a day would still compel a PAC-3 burn rate of at least 300 missiles, given that, as a general rule, two PAC-3 missiles are launched at every incoming target.

But of course, the interception rate would be considerably lower than 100%.

What that last sentence means is that, given that something like 12 missiles out of the 50 or so missiles that were fired at Al Asad actually made it through the Patriot defense screen, it’s reasonable to believe that those 12 missiles that made it through drew more than the baseline “two per” Patriots. What does this imply?

In an attempt to cover just three large airbases against a series of salvos of 100+ missiles of various types, the entire US stockpile of PAC-3 interceptors could very conceivably be exhausted in little more than a week or two.

Current annual production could easily be consumed in little more than a day or two.

In other words, “as long as it takes” could become “Hey, we’re outta here!” in quite short order. Does this sound sensible to you? Especially when we’re also putting ourselves in harms way against major military powers that have none of those munitions constraints? That’s what Schryver means when he says, #TheBigAttrition accelerates. This could happen virtually overnight, depending …

While this is going on it seems that the US is putting out feelers of some sort or another to Iran, using Saudi Arabia as an intermediary:

Iran & US Use Saudi Arabia To Swap Messages, Seek To Cool Gaza Tensions

If you read that article closely you’ll soon realize that “cooling Gaza tensions” doesn’t mean what you might think. What it seems to mean is that the US is attempting to bluff and bluster its way to conning Iran into allowing the Israeli genocide to go on … and on. And the Iranians are supposed to order Hezbollah and Yemen to stand down. Here’s the reason behind this message diplomacy:

The Wall Street Journal:

"Israel is failing to destroy Hamas in Gaza"

"US intelligence agencies estimate Israel has killed 20% to 30% of Hamas's fighters, falling short of their target to destroy them completely.

“They estimate Hamas has months of ammunition left, causing Biden to pressure Netanyahu to change his approach."

The US knows time isn’t on Israel’s side, and the Iranians know that, too. And the Iranians are supposed to order Hezbollah and Yemen to stand down? Judging from the reactions of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hezbollah in Iraq, Iran isn’t falling for the con and isn’t impressed by the threats. Here’s how all this plays out:

Another Iranian insider told MEE that Washington used Saudi channels to inform Tehran that it was about to strike Yemen's Houthis, who have been staging attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea to disrupt Israeli supplies and commerce.

The message urged Iran to restrain its allied groups during the US strike. It also indicated that the strikes on the Houthis would not initially be too strong, but if Tehran reacted forcefully then a fierce US response would follow. US and UK forces carried out a first round of air strikes on the Yemeni group on January 12.

That day, during a tour of a coffee shop in Allentown, Pennsylvania, US President Joe Biden said: "I've already delivered the message to Iran. They know not to do anything. We will make sure we respond to the Houthis if they continue this outrageous behavior along with our allies."

At a guess, I’d say that the Iranians are the ones conducting a successful con. Hapless Zhou as chess player, versus some of the best chess players in the world? It all sounds like a setup for a major defeat. Or another major defeat—following on Ukraine.

As usual with the Neocons in charge, the US is scrambling while others control the center of the chess board.

I’ll end this with a quote from another very recent Schryver substack article:

An Epoch of Great Changes Is upon Us

And, as I have argued in crescendo over the past several years, the long-pervasive belief in American military supremacy is a myth; a mirage; a fallacious narrative fashioned from fables and Hollywood films.

The US military has not won a war since WW2. They have mercilessly bombed the crap out of many smaller, weaker countries, killed millions of people, and yet never once achieved strategic victory.

…

And now, here in 2024, the US military has never been in a more weakened state relative to any of its potential great power adversaries — namely, Russia, China, and Iran.

As I repeat often, I am convinced the failed US/NATO proxy war against Russia in Ukraine will produce the following results:

— It will greatly accelerate the decline of the American Empire.

— NATO will cease to be a credible military/political alliance.

— The EU will cease to be a credible monetary/political alliance.

And, as the broken hegemon rapidly recedes, political, economic, and social chaos is certain to engulf much of the world as the major and minor players on the planet scramble to secure their respective spheres of influence and establish new centers of global and regional power.

That sounds like a very reasonable assessment in view of the facts that we can discern.

Oh, by the way—here’s a thoughtful assessment touching on a recent post:

Did the FBI Plant Pipe Bombs in DC on Jan. 6?
Hot Air ^ | January 21, 2024 | Jazz Shaw

Conclusion:

None of this adds up. The newly released video is damning, at least in my opinion. If that was a real attempt at a bombing, the response from the CHP and the Secret Service should have been immediate and overwhelming. If law enforcement has a better explanation, they aren’t telling the public what it is. Something stinks to high heaven here and the House GOP has one more huge item on their plate to investigate now.