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Really interesting thread on the IMF and WB take on where things are at in the macroeconomics scene (problems and concerns from their perspective):

https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1581626808856121346

Shocking that they think Ukraine is winning! Doesn't inspire confidence in their perspective....

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Energy crisis, financial crisis, political crisis, health crisis, nuclear crisis, etc. Here’s another looming crisis that gets precious little attention: dramatic food shortages (including in the U.S.) and mass starvation around the world.

Here’s a video from an agriculture observer worth listening to. The stats he cites regarding crop failures alone are downright frightening. Most of us are completely oblivious about what’s coming.

https://youtu.be/iiSYRKDUcss

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Oct 16, 2022·edited Oct 16, 2022

Swag:

The Fed is trying to prevent a major financial institution collapse right before the midterms.

UK backtracked / chickened out, kicking the can further down the road, so they avoided an immediate financial meltdown after the deliberate financial attack on the government plan.

There is/will be a huge amount of financial unwinding / deleveraging. If done too fast, it will be a fire sale and huge financial destruction. This gets back to the theory of too big to fail.

The recent hints the us wants an Ukraine peace deal, means the Biden Administration is getting a clue they are losing the economic and physical Ukraine/ Russia war.

I don’t see the Biden Administration changing course on fossil fuels. Climate change is a cult / religion.

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OT, but this essay reflects a lot of my thinking about where we are in Ukraine. Recommended.

https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/complications-of-the-ukraine-war/

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Pretty good as far as it goes, but it seems he pulls his punches. He knows as well as anyone the entrenched ideologues within the US government who have consciously and consistently pushed this policy from the Clintons to the present.

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Yes, he could have gone further. As I said to a friend earlier today,

If anything, I am more dubious of American actions, and American explanation for actions, than Caldwell because I may trust the US government and press even less than he does.

Like many Americans, I believe that the Bush Administration’s justification for its invasion of Iraq, that its leader, Saddam Hussein, possessed illegal ‘weapons of mass destruction, was a lie. I believe the Obama Administration’s explanation for the assassination of American diplomats in Benghazi, was a lie. I believe that the FBI and DOJ explanations for the investigation of Donald Trump based on Russian Collusion was a lie. I believe that the Democrat Congress’ and Biden Administration’s attempt to frame citizen protests over 2020 election irregularities as an “insurrection” is a lie. There are many, many more examples.

I am also cynical about our true motivations. They cannot be altruistic apple pie American motivations (freedom, democracy, etc). They are the base motivations of maintaining global power and greed...at whatever cost.

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And don't forget Serbia. That, in a sense, was the inaugural war for the Rules Based Order.

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Removed (Banned)Oct 16, 2022
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All true.

Maybe he recycled some older stuff into the article. Its gotta be tough writing new stuff all the time! :-)

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What a lot of folks forget is that when you keep kicking the can down the road, sooner or later you run out of road. I feel pretty certain that there’s a “Road Ends” sign in everyone’s future. Probably make 08 look like a Sunday picnic.

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Sheds much light on what's going on in LA politics:

More Leaked Conversations at the Cal Labor Offices Show the DSA-LA Takeover of Los Angeles Continues Apace

https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2022/10/15/more-leaked-conversations-at-the-cal-labor-offices-show-the-dsa-la-takeover-of-los-angeles-continues-apace-n643655

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Thanks for posting the Martyanov video. Permit me a few comments.

A word about who I am. I have never worn a uniform a day in my life and claim no particular expertise. I'm an old wargamer from way back. The Old Wargamer spent a lot of time back in days playing Decisive Action, which is a professional level wargame used at the Army Command and Staff College. NASAMS is a good system for what it does, but let me say a word about what I would be doing if this was a game and I was playing Red.

In this scenario, Blue isn't clubbing baby seals anymore. Red has some serious hardware and will shoot back. Now what was normally done in Decisive Action was that in order to get the best use out of your air (Fixed or rotary wing) you had to do SEAD. (Suppression of enemy air defenses.) Some artillery had to be assigned to that task. (Red, in the scenario we are playing, has artillery) Now, the flyboys have antiradar missiles and countermeasures, but you had to get the artillery involved if you wanted to get actual close air support. So when the radar of an enemy SAM unit went active, or a missile got launched, you had, usually an MLRS type artillery unit detailed to SEAD that would open up on the offending SAM unit. I point out that Red, in this scenario, has MLRS and surface to surface missiles that far outrange the NASAMS.

The Old Wargamer does not know how NASAMS will perform in combat, but he suspects that, as in the game, Red artillery and SSMs will be detailed to be on the lookout for it.

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Thanks, interesting.

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Removed (Banned)Oct 16, 2022
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And a very recent Rasmussen poll appears to indicate that lots of people have caught on to that. Finally.

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Removed (Banned)Oct 16, 2022
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I get it, but these are all preliminaries or confirmations of preliminaries that have been ongoing for a while. I can't spend my limited time simply transcribing preliminaries, although I appreciate such updates in the comments.

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Yeah, in his speech the other day Putin said there 33k already attached to units. They give them 5-10 days reintro to basics then respecialty for up to 2 weeks. So they're close to ready.

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Oct 16, 2022·edited Oct 16, 2022

2020: global “pandemic,” total economic lockdown, deep-state coup d’etat, BLM riots, cold civil war…

2023: hold my beer.

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