H/T to Friend George for this one. Analysis like this has been around for years, especially since the 2006 Hezbollah War. Myths die hard: Delusional, or prophetic? One IDF general warned a massacre would happen Most dismissed retired IDF general Yitzhak Brick’s warning earlier this year of a Hamas invasion. Now Netanyahu wants his advice on how to win.
The Izzies are but a microcosm of what US/NATO has become: MIL leadership best suited for political office, empty MIL hardware shelves, crappy hardware (Poster children Patriot System, F-35) and zero critical thinking to figure out how to fix their current mess as exemplified by UA.
I think in lieu of any "ground attack" these basic "incursions" for a few hours will exist and continue for quite some time. Everyone expects ground attack. Israel has to think differently about this. Incursions would be better alternative for less prepared ground forces. May keep Hezbollah out of the picture too.
Read a substack a couple of days ago by someone named N.S. Lyon. Talked about over-reliance on technology and the beauty of simplicity. Went in depth on how Hamas defeated Israeli fence defense tech. Quite enlightening. Smart bombs and grenade dropping drones are cool but, wizbang tech, billion dollar airplanes and high tech super soldiers are unsustainable. Men with bayonet equipped rifles, artillery, plenty of ammo and sustainment win wars.
and men equipped with jihadist fervor and passion to kill civilians anywhere and everywhere based on ideology wins the day and the empathy of the world versus those with high-tech weapons targeting military / command control structures looking to minimize civilian casualties. Seems apparent high stakes grievances on both sides lead to best choice of action.
Key weaknesses were relying on wireless and no reserve force in case of failure. Hamas throughly understood Israeli system and effectively targeted it. Israel is lucky Hamas did not use more fighters for the incursion.
Is it the case, across many institutions, that only those retired can speak freely about obvious problems? MacGregor does not seem to care what people think. He speaks his mind and tells it as he sees it. The same with retired IDF General Brick. We see this with retired professors emeritus when it comes to the global warming/climate change/new scary name for weather thing. They speak out in opposition and are able to because they do not need grants to earn a living. It seems that those in a position, through courage, ethical compulsion, inherent independence of mind, etc. who go against the grain are uncommon. Perhaps the rarity of this is another indicator of the deep institutional rot that we think we smell. What sort of person is attracted to and thrives in our major institutions?
Doug McGregor made it onto GB News last night to dispense a dose of reality. It was refreshing to us but I doubt the presenter, Neil Oliver, has long to go now before he's dumped.
Hopefully Israel is conducting a rapid debrief of those involved in fighting the Hamas attack particularly in terms of the combat effectiveness of the military and security forces involved. Maybe they have and this is one reason for waiting. Are they just waiting and blocking any further Hamas attacks or are they training? Waiting and preparing for a multi-front war might be prudent. Bomb tunnel entrances when they are found. Try to get hostages back. But mainly take time to think before committing troops to major engagements. A small move into Gaza could be a feint to try and draw out Hezbollah. There are attacks along the border with Lebanon. If Netanyahu knows that the IDF is not ready for ground war he will delay it as long as possible. The distraction of insane domestic politics has a heavy cost. Loss of cohesion per Steghorn21. Recall the soldier yelling at Netanyahu at a speech. Sounds like insubordination in time of war. Per MacGregor emoting rather than thinking. Are the Israelis emoting in terms of how they think of each other rather than having unified seriousness of purpose? Are we doing that here with our colonial military not ready for great power deterrence much less war?
My guess is Israel is testing right now, with small scale operations.
Plus the politics, both US and Israeli, May be against a large scale operation.
It’s been suggested that Israel is basically conducting a siege of Gaza, hoping this degrades Hamas ability.
Or perhaps Israel is bleeding Hamas, hoping for a political solution that frees the hostages.
My guess Israel does not have the ability currently without large scale casualties to conquer Gaza, and the high casualties would be politically poison to any political party / politician that backs it, with the Israeli adverseness to casualties.
Might one consider how much Israel relies on support from the USA in the form of military and economic aid? If you have an older brother who will reliably come to your aid you can pick fights you can’t win knowing you have someone watching your back or coming to your aid. This enables a softness and dependency that may weaken your resolve and create the inadequacy we see today in their armed forces.
but it's been that way for decades. Nothing changes. Sovereign nation right to self-defense will always rule the day. How support is generated and alignment maintained in the long term is critical. Don't think Germany isn't willing to send 155mm howitzer shells to Israel versus Ukraine. EU and US will be the "older brother" if things get worse. However, I doubt attacking Iran is being considered as an option. Ain't gonna happen. Scales tipped in the wrong direction.
Excellent feline observation. We see this now with the massive US build up in the eastern Med. The Israeli neocons can breathe a bit easier knowing that the US is either going to deter or even attack their greatest enemy, Iran.
Excellent info. Brick sounds a bit like Col MacGregor. Israel is in trouble. It has not only lost its much vaunted military reputation, but also its internal cohesion. I wonder if they'll now consider going in with the US/Nato on some crazy-assed military adventure against Syria to draw attention away from what is happening to them?
We all wonder what's next. I think you are right the need to distract attention away from the areas of weakness to hide the dysfunction and this is cause for great distress among those who are not fooled by the machinations of our elites.
Off the front page yes, but not off the money trail, that's what so incredibly sad. I get the feeling the Zhou regime is constantly playing the three card monty game on us.
... no win here ... full agreement. an optimum strategy in no-win situations is to 'not play'. the hostage situation (I do not make light of the killings as bad enough) makes that exceptionally difficult, and we are past 'not playing'. My prayer is to the Lord for a miracle for wisdom, peace; the alternate strategies are to not escalate and to seek to change the structure of the problem: the Western political leadership is at a century-mark of weakness, our cultural gifts spilled onto the floor, the MIIC in harmful neo-con fantasy land. The only thing I am sure of is that today's players and relational structure will not be in place tomorrow. Change is upon us
The Izzies are but a microcosm of what US/NATO has become: MIL leadership best suited for political office, empty MIL hardware shelves, crappy hardware (Poster children Patriot System, F-35) and zero critical thinking to figure out how to fix their current mess as exemplified by UA.
I think in lieu of any "ground attack" these basic "incursions" for a few hours will exist and continue for quite some time. Everyone expects ground attack. Israel has to think differently about this. Incursions would be better alternative for less prepared ground forces. May keep Hezbollah out of the picture too.
Read a substack a couple of days ago by someone named N.S. Lyon. Talked about over-reliance on technology and the beauty of simplicity. Went in depth on how Hamas defeated Israeli fence defense tech. Quite enlightening. Smart bombs and grenade dropping drones are cool but, wizbang tech, billion dollar airplanes and high tech super soldiers are unsustainable. Men with bayonet equipped rifles, artillery, plenty of ammo and sustainment win wars.
and men equipped with jihadist fervor and passion to kill civilians anywhere and everywhere based on ideology wins the day and the empathy of the world versus those with high-tech weapons targeting military / command control structures looking to minimize civilian casualties. Seems apparent high stakes grievances on both sides lead to best choice of action.
Thanks - fascinating read.
Key weaknesses were relying on wireless and no reserve force in case of failure. Hamas throughly understood Israeli system and effectively targeted it. Israel is lucky Hamas did not use more fighters for the incursion.
https://open.substack.com/pub/theupheaval/p/hard-lessons-from-israels-high-tech
He has another one today,?The Greatness of Simplicity. Very good.
As do tribesmen with rocks and slingshots, if sufficiently motivated.
Timothy Zhan has a Sci Fi book of soldiers using slingshots to fight aliens with more technology. Black Collar. Fun read.
Is it the case, across many institutions, that only those retired can speak freely about obvious problems? MacGregor does not seem to care what people think. He speaks his mind and tells it as he sees it. The same with retired IDF General Brick. We see this with retired professors emeritus when it comes to the global warming/climate change/new scary name for weather thing. They speak out in opposition and are able to because they do not need grants to earn a living. It seems that those in a position, through courage, ethical compulsion, inherent independence of mind, etc. who go against the grain are uncommon. Perhaps the rarity of this is another indicator of the deep institutional rot that we think we smell. What sort of person is attracted to and thrives in our major institutions?
Doug McGregor made it onto GB News last night to dispense a dose of reality. It was refreshing to us but I doubt the presenter, Neil Oliver, has long to go now before he's dumped.
Hopefully Israel is conducting a rapid debrief of those involved in fighting the Hamas attack particularly in terms of the combat effectiveness of the military and security forces involved. Maybe they have and this is one reason for waiting. Are they just waiting and blocking any further Hamas attacks or are they training? Waiting and preparing for a multi-front war might be prudent. Bomb tunnel entrances when they are found. Try to get hostages back. But mainly take time to think before committing troops to major engagements. A small move into Gaza could be a feint to try and draw out Hezbollah. There are attacks along the border with Lebanon. If Netanyahu knows that the IDF is not ready for ground war he will delay it as long as possible. The distraction of insane domestic politics has a heavy cost. Loss of cohesion per Steghorn21. Recall the soldier yelling at Netanyahu at a speech. Sounds like insubordination in time of war. Per MacGregor emoting rather than thinking. Are the Israelis emoting in terms of how they think of each other rather than having unified seriousness of purpose? Are we doing that here with our colonial military not ready for great power deterrence much less war?
My guess is Israel is testing right now, with small scale operations.
Plus the politics, both US and Israeli, May be against a large scale operation.
It’s been suggested that Israel is basically conducting a siege of Gaza, hoping this degrades Hamas ability.
Or perhaps Israel is bleeding Hamas, hoping for a political solution that frees the hostages.
My guess Israel does not have the ability currently without large scale casualties to conquer Gaza, and the high casualties would be politically poison to any political party / politician that backs it, with the Israeli adverseness to casualties.
"hoping for a political solution that frees the hostages"?
https://news.sky.com/story/israel-hamas-war-all-civilian-hostages-could-be-freed-from-gaza-in-days-if-fighting-paused-qatari-negotiators-say-12993168
All good points.
To me, the big question is: why, today, are we defaulting to war?
Its literally insane.
Might one consider how much Israel relies on support from the USA in the form of military and economic aid? If you have an older brother who will reliably come to your aid you can pick fights you can’t win knowing you have someone watching your back or coming to your aid. This enables a softness and dependency that may weaken your resolve and create the inadequacy we see today in their armed forces.
but it's been that way for decades. Nothing changes. Sovereign nation right to self-defense will always rule the day. How support is generated and alignment maintained in the long term is critical. Don't think Germany isn't willing to send 155mm howitzer shells to Israel versus Ukraine. EU and US will be the "older brother" if things get worse. However, I doubt attacking Iran is being considered as an option. Ain't gonna happen. Scales tipped in the wrong direction.
Excellent feline observation. We see this now with the massive US build up in the eastern Med. The Israeli neocons can breathe a bit easier knowing that the US is either going to deter or even attack their greatest enemy, Iran.
Excellent info. Brick sounds a bit like Col MacGregor. Israel is in trouble. It has not only lost its much vaunted military reputation, but also its internal cohesion. I wonder if they'll now consider going in with the US/Nato on some crazy-assed military adventure against Syria to draw attention away from what is happening to them?
We all wonder what's next. I think you are right the need to distract attention away from the areas of weakness to hide the dysfunction and this is cause for great distress among those who are not fooled by the machinations of our elites.
The distraction has worked so far. Look how Israel/Gaza pushed Ukraine off the front page.
Off the front page yes, but not off the money trail, that's what so incredibly sad. I get the feeling the Zhou regime is constantly playing the three card monty game on us.
Let's hope what the new Speaker has to say about this. His first big test.
... no win here ... full agreement. an optimum strategy in no-win situations is to 'not play'. the hostage situation (I do not make light of the killings as bad enough) makes that exceptionally difficult, and we are past 'not playing'. My prayer is to the Lord for a miracle for wisdom, peace; the alternate strategies are to not escalate and to seek to change the structure of the problem: the Western political leadership is at a century-mark of weakness, our cultural gifts spilled onto the floor, the MIIC in harmful neo-con fantasy land. The only thing I am sure of is that today's players and relational structure will not be in place tomorrow. Change is upon us