An Inflection Point In The War On Russia Is Approaching
The signs are pretty unmistakable. The collective West realizes it’s in over its head. You can tell from the frantic reaction to Zelensky’s attempt to leverage the Ukrainian missiles landing in Poland into a major escalation against Russia. The US squashed that gambit—originally pushed hard by the UK and Estonia—quickly and in no uncertain terms. Since then we’ve heard repeated complaints about Zelensky’s lies emanating from the collective West. Complaints that he’s out of control, isn’t a team player, is a risk for starting WW3, etc. While some in the West think replacing Zelensky is a way forward, I very much doubt that. You’d end up with one of two results: 1) Either the real Ukro-Nazis would gain more influence than they already have within the Ukrainian government, or 2) someone stronger and more pragmatic than Zelensky would take over. The first option would unquestionably increase the risk of escalation, and the second option would likely lead to Ukraine quickly opting for a modus vivendi with Russia that would place Ukraine firmly within the Russian sphere of influence—exactly what the war is supposed to prevent.
In other words, the collective West finds itself between a rock and a hard place. In the meantime, Russia is preparing to take the gloves off—probably as soon as winter sets in. The US knows this, and is getting the jitters. The sanctions war was supposed to keep us out of exactly this dilemma, but that blew up in our faces and we’re left with nothing but hard military choices. As the Poland missile flap shows, the US military knows it cannot afford any further escalation. As a result we’ve seen fissures developing between the US military and the non-DoD national security establishment Neocons. Mark Milley, after publicly advocating for Ukrainian - Russian negotiations, was forced back into line. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that the Neocons are unaware that they’ve been backed into a corner. It may be that they’re trying to somehow buy time while they figure out some way to exit the corner. I wouldn’t bet on their success.
Here’s another indication:
In other words, the collective West is beginning to wonder whether it’s time to declare victory and abandon the countries that went out on limbs for the war on Russia. If you follow the link to the RT article you’ll learn that the Norwegian company is actually a subsidiary of Rolls Royce, a UK company. That goes hand in hand with the UK evading sanctions on Russian oil and the US also evading sanctions on critical Russian products. And with the US itself also quietly rolling back sanctions, with Janet Yellen hinting that there could be more rollbacks.
I doubt that there will ultimately even be a possibility of maintaining a heightened security environment along Russia’s western border regions. Who thinks Poland, having given away key parts of its military equipment, will really be able to reconstruct that military? In the current economic crisis they can’t afford to do anything like that. And Poland is far from alone in that regard. Germany and other countries will be in the same boat. Russia holds the geopolitical cards. The US will try to maintain the sanctions war and its stranglehold over Europe, but economics are working against that. The myth of US imperial supremacy is already being reconsidered in capitals around the world.
Will Schryver links today to a fine substack that he wrote back in July, and which has stood the test of time. In it he summarizes the military situation the collective West—meaning, the US—finds itself. The US cannot win a war against Russia, and therefore will not fight such a war. That means the current war will need to be rolled back.
This passage in particular, dealing with a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine (when did you last hear any such suggestion) was particularly striking. In hindsight it’s clear that the US military knew all along that this was a crazy idea:
You see, if NATO had to go to war today against Russia, and all their troops and equipment could be magically teleported to the battlefield, they simply could not sustain high-intensity conflict for more than about a month, as this excellent analysis persuasively argues: The Return of Industrial Warfare.
The zealous disciples of indisputable American military supremacy will undoubtedly reply:
“Overwhelming American air power alone would devastate Russian military capabilities in a matter of days; a couple weeks at most.”
The average Call of Duty warrior believes such nonsense, but I'm confident very few in the Pentagon harbor such delusions.
To the contrary, they understand perfectly well that Russian best-in-class air defenses would shred attempted US/NATO airstrikes. It would be a stunning massacre, the results of which after even the first 48 hours would see wiser heads calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities.
Not only that, but even attempted, but catastrophically failed NATO airstrikes against Russia would result in a massive series of counterstrikes against NATO bases and warships at distances never seen in previous wars. It would be a no-holds-barred affair.
The US knows that what’s coming is a significant Russian escalation. There is nothing we can do to prevent that. Once it starts the pressure will be inexorable to find an exit strategy. Russia will have no incentive to make that easy.
Has anybody used their instant read thermometer on the ground in Ukraine? It's been like waiting for the turkey to creep up to 165°F when all you've eaten all day are the apple and pecan scraps while making the Waldorf salad...
Bigger question: how screwed up is it to be rooting for a Russian rout of Ukraine--and by extension--the USA? Major props to the insane left and the feckless, corrupt GOPe on this Thanksgiving Day.
Thanks Mark!