Before I get into the main topic, I noted this tweet, below. At a guess, the fact of Iskander missiles being moved west from the Kiev region toward Belarus’ border with Poland suggests that Russia intends to interdict arms shipments from Poland into western Ukraine:
N.S. Lyons, in a recent interview, opines that as far as Chinese establishment is concerned, the Special Military Operation is a badly timed and unwelcome development:
But I don't think N.S. is as clued in as he first appears, for a pseudonymous member of the DC foreign policy establishment. Especially since this showed up:
Marko Marjanović of Anti-Empire.com has a guest editorial here about how the invasion is going, from a Russian perspective. I found it refreshingly critical:
There is a positive aspect to all this. The 'US' mentioned multiple times in this article does not necessarily mean the people and the ones doing this must maintain political power over the country, not a sure thing with the discontent they are fomenting. Even with that without public support things could evolve in ways they cannot imagine.
Good article and thanks Mark. Can I assume the WH and Intel community "game theory / gaming strategy" didn't account for the economic aspects? Yes... yes I can.
It centers on Friedman's famous words that "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output." It then has a couple graphs that make it abundantly clear that this gap between dollars conjured from thin air and real economic output really and truly does (roughly) equal inflation.
According to one of these charts, in the two year stretch from Q4 2019 to Q4 2021, output increased less than 2% while M2 grew by 40%. I mean, WOW. And this of course was all before any Russia-Ukraine stuff could've had any effect at all.
On the economic front, this piece titled The Return of the Third Horseman (tinyurl.com/2p94j35u) is excellent. It begins,
"The Ukraine War is having dozens - hundreds - of follow-on impacts across the world, with the most dramatic about to be felt in the world of food. Whatever you think will happen, the reality is almost certainly worse."
It then supports the claim with what seem to be highly plausible arguments - well worth a read.
Destruction of the western economic system is exactly what the sanctions are intended to do, they just are not saying that part out loud.
N.S. Lyons, in a recent interview, opines that as far as Chinese establishment is concerned, the Special Military Operation is a badly timed and unwelcome development:
https://rebelwisdom.substack.com/p/china-ukraine-and-the-western-soul?s=w
But I don't think N.S. is as clued in as he first appears, for a pseudonymous member of the DC foreign policy establishment. Especially since this showed up:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-cyberattack-ukraine-z9gfkbmgf
Marko Marjanović of Anti-Empire.com has a guest editorial here about how the invasion is going, from a Russian perspective. I found it refreshingly critical:
https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/i-am-in-awe-of-the-sheer-ruthlessness
Anyway, just some additional sources for you all to consider.
There is a positive aspect to all this. The 'US' mentioned multiple times in this article does not necessarily mean the people and the ones doing this must maintain political power over the country, not a sure thing with the discontent they are fomenting. Even with that without public support things could evolve in ways they cannot imagine.
Good article and thanks Mark. Can I assume the WH and Intel community "game theory / gaming strategy" didn't account for the economic aspects? Yes... yes I can.
PM of Poland:
Mateusz Morawiecki: "I must say this very clearly; the sanctions we have imposed so far don't work. The best evidence is the ruble exchange rate."
And a second piece on the economic front, though not strictly from a Russia-Ukraine angle, is this one: "The ghost of Milton Friedman is haunting President Biden." (americanexperiment.org/the-ghost-of-milton-friedman-is-haunting-president-biden)
It centers on Friedman's famous words that "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output." It then has a couple graphs that make it abundantly clear that this gap between dollars conjured from thin air and real economic output really and truly does (roughly) equal inflation.
According to one of these charts, in the two year stretch from Q4 2019 to Q4 2021, output increased less than 2% while M2 grew by 40%. I mean, WOW. And this of course was all before any Russia-Ukraine stuff could've had any effect at all.
I agree with Mary's "Yup. Yup. And yup." below.
On the economic front, this piece titled The Return of the Third Horseman (tinyurl.com/2p94j35u) is excellent. It begins,
"The Ukraine War is having dozens - hundreds - of follow-on impacts across the world, with the most dramatic about to be felt in the world of food. Whatever you think will happen, the reality is almost certainly worse."
It then supports the claim with what seem to be highly plausible arguments - well worth a read.
Multiple Fronts, and Various Enemies:
1. Ukraine Physical War with Russia. Goal Russian regime change.
2. Economic sanctions with Russia - goal Russian regime change
3. Propaganda / Narrative War - keep support for US position, use Russia as scapegoat.
4. Threaten non Western countries with sanctions, if trade with Russia. US Dollar as reserve currency.
5. Gop - portray them as weak on Russia
6. Higher Energy Costs - use Ukraine as way to further build back better / green agenda
7. Open Borders - cause food shortages that increase refugees into Western Countries
Ultimately, the American bureaucratic state will drown us all in it's colossal, out of control arrogance.