Admin And A Late Prediction

Yesterday I was doing grampa stuff. Today will be a bit of a mental health day. More grampa stuff but also an outing for my wife. Sitting in a car had become very painful with her bad hip. We tested that out yesterday and all systems are go. She also graduated from the walker to just a cane—her back and nerve problems persist but the hip and knees are doing great and mobility is improving by the day. Small steps but important.

Nevertheless, I was able to listen to some of the usual commentators, especially regarding reports of an imminent Israeli “invasion” of Lebanon. Danny Davis and Doug Macgregor were, understandably, sounding the alarm about Israel’s intent to draw the US into a wider regional war in the Middle East. That is clearly the ultimate intent of all Israeli massacres, assassinations, and other escalations, since Israel alone cannot dominate the Middle East—no matter how many munitions the US supplies. That much I believe we’re all agreed upon.

On the other hand, I found Scott Ritter and Alexander Mercouris quite cogent on the claims of an imminent Israeli “invasion”. It has long been apparent that the Israeli military is not capable of such a scheme without incurring casualties it isn’t prepared for, as well as retaliation on an unprecedented scale. Add to that the attrition to both personnel and equipment suffered after a year of war on Gaza, and such a venture seems largely out of the question.

For that reason I concluded that the savage bombing of Beirut was mostly intended as a further escalation with the usual intent of eliciting a massive retaliation by Hezbollah—and hopefully Iran—that would force the US to intervene. A further goal of the savage use of 86 2K lb. bunker buster bombs in a dense urban setting was to intimidate Hezbollah into standing down. From both standpoints the latest Israeli war crime has been a failure, despite the PR about assassinating Nasrallah.

The renewed threats of an invasion of Lebanon, while intended as a backup measure to the main escalation, have fallen flat. Hezbollah has not stood down and has instead greatly extended the reach of its strikes into Israel, while still holding back its best missiles. Last night the IDF spoke simply of “localized raids” into Lebanon. Localized raids will never accomplish Netanyahu’s stated goals of restoring Israeli control over northern Israel, and are likely to devolve into a war of attrition that Israel cannot afford—not in terms of resources and not in terms of time. Time is not on Israel’s side.

Finally, reports are that Lloyd Austin in particular was outraged at the Israeli actions, taken in defiance of US—or, at least, DoD—wishes. Make no mistake about it. The US military is heavily involved in Israel’s war and its war crimes, but the Pentagon knows it cannot afford full involvement in a major regional war. The US cannot replace the munitions that are being expended fruitlessly and has too much going on around the world. The next administration will be forced to confront these issues, which is probably why Netanyahu is desperate for the ultimate (US) escalation before November.

This morning has brought confirmation of most of the above.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

NEW:

 The Israeli army has been unable to enter Lebanon because Hezbollah fighters are constantly bombing their positions - Al Manar

Mega Geopolitics @MegaGeopolitics

BREAKING:  Russia says Israel must 'immediately' withdraw troops from Lebanon

More on Russia below …

Megatron @Megatron_ron

NEW:

 Israel is backing off from a full-scale ground invasion on Lebanon, the Wall Street Journal reports

Israel has ruled out a large-scale ground offensive in Lebanon, focusing instead on limited raids against Hezbollah positions near the border.

Washington Post quoting an Israeli official:

"Our goal is to deal with Hezbollah strongholds, which are potential sources for launching an attack on northern Israel.

Supported by air and artillery, these operations have not reported any direct clashes with Hezbollah militants so far."

The last night's attempt was probably just a test, They probably concluded that they are facing Gaza on steroids, where, according to the oppositionist Lapid, they lost 12 brigades, which are probably far more.

@MarioNawfal

7:30 AM · Oct 1, 2024

Who thinks Netanyahu gives a fig about David Lammy’s views? Me neither. Nevertheless:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

JUST IN:

 British Foreign Secretary David Lammy convinces Israel not to enter Lebanon:

"Israel must avoid sinking into quagmire in Lebanon.

Cost of war in the Middle East would be high"

8:11 AM · Oct 1, 2024

Now, regarding Russia, the above warning by Russia is important because the regional stakes are high—Russia is deeply involved in Syria as well as with non-Arab states like Iran. In addition:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

JUST IN:

 NATO backs Russia missile strikes, but members decide — Mark Rutte

The alliance’s new head reiterated that Ukraine has a right to strike deep into Russian territory as a means to defend itself but claimed it was still up to member states to decide whether to approve such action.

“According to international law, this right does not end at the border,” Rutte said.

7:35 AM · Oct 1, 2024

Russia has adamantly warned that such action could lead to direct retaliation as well as possible asymmetric measures. Blinken and the Brits have been pursuing this escalation, while the Pentagon has been opposed to it. This is almost certainly part of the equation that the Pentagon has been calculating and which leads the Pentagon to the realization that it simply cannot afford to expand its active military involvement virtually anywhere in the world. Not with Russia in command of the situation in Ukraine and becoming increasingly assertive in response to NATO and US threats.

We’ll see what the day brings.