Yesterday I reported the news that the US is deploying a THAAD battery (that last word is important, remember it) to Israel, to be manned by 100 US personnel.
I’m thinking the best service Elon Musk could provide to a new administration is as inspector general to all things high tech in these seemingly endless displays of MIC failures/incompetence
At this point I’d say if the IDF is this confident, have at it then. We can clean up the mess when the blows have been exchanged, and “move on.” I do not believe the US military will go all in, if only because both Russia and China - at the brink- will warn us not to step in. We will heed that warning. With the battle then confined to Israel and Iran (and Hezbollah), it will be game over for Israel, all because of an overzealous leadership indulging in evangelical and yes magical thinking. They will regret their arrogance. My only hope is they have realized the truth of what will happen and will step back from an almost certain total destruction.
I am sorry, but Dan Linnaeus sounds like Dave Petraeus just before the Ukie offensive in 2023.
"Yes the Ukrainians will leverage the capabilities of their superior NATO equipment and training in order to to achieve overmatch against the insufficient Russian fortifications and break the enemies battle focus by disrupting his planning and decision making cycle" blah blah blah.......
Don't get me wrong, Mr. Dan did a wonderful job with the planning metrics. But those provide only the base lines. In a similar case, in the Army, we had Staff Officers Field Manuels that did the same thing for all operations: Defense ops , Raids, Fortified position attacks, Retreats and much more. The Staff Manuel was a bible and about 1000 pages thick. But it could not cover all the intangibles like leadership, weather and just plain luck.
Linnaeus analysis falls under the Mike Tyson theorem of: .... "Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face. "
or
The golden rule:..... No matter how much you plan....the enemy always gets a vote.
The Israel problem is that everything better go exactly as planned, because if it does not, the situation will go south real fast. Also, this is a one shot deal, they better do it right , because they do not, they will not get a second chance. Israel is a small country with a compact population and industrial base. It can be devastated very quickly and will be devastated, if they fail....and maybe .....even if they succeed. This operation truly is a dice roll.
And yes.
Those US troops manning that ADA equipment are Exactly that..... A trip wire. ......Nothing else.
The Pentagon and White House knows the THAAD will not make much of a difference...so why do it? To give The Capital Region an excuse, if they want to use it. To say US forces were attacked.
Also, Remember the USS Liberty? I might be a cynic, but it would not surprise me that the Israelis attack/ kill the THAAD unit themselves, in-order to get the US into the war.
a paraphrase....
"What is the good of choice, when all choices end badly"
Excellently apropos - "Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face. " Or they get blinded by the fog of war.
Also fabulous - ‘the Chosen, the Master Race’. What planet do these people think they live on? But more seriously, in what god do they believe? Can’t be the God of the OT, because then they wouldn’t need the US - all it would take then is a couple of priests banging pots together and God would defeat the enemy. They believe in their own agency, not God’s.
"Yes, we only have 7 [THAADs]. They cost $1.25 billion per battery and $12.6 million per missile. From a capability point of view, they are A LOT more expensive than a Navy solution, plus we now have US Army soldiers engaged in a combat role feet-dry ashore in Israel.
"A THAAD battery consists six launchers, each with eight missiles. That gives you 48 missiles. A little more than half a DDG’s worth of VLS cells. I’ll let you multiply 48x7.
Compared to having a couple of DDG off the coast, having US Army forces as active participants on the ground is an escalation in our participation in helping Israel defend herself. It does not matter if you think that is a good thing or a bad thing, but it is reality. It narrows options and increases risks. Ground forces have a very different vibe than capabilities at sea.
"I would presume own supply of Arrow ABM must be running thin. Deploying THAAD could not have been an easy decision for Israel or the USA. This isn’t an exercise, this is varsity football.
"With only seven batteries available and the world generally in disarray, the only reason I can think of that would justify this move is simply that the US Navy just can’t bring enough DDG with SM-3 off Israel to do the job. We’ve shot what we’ve got…at least for a bit. What few we have are located elsewhere with missions of their own."
I feel like I’m watching a slow motion train wreck. From inside the train!
I’m thinking the best service Elon Musk could provide to a new administration is as inspector general to all things high tech in these seemingly endless displays of MIC failures/incompetence
At this point I’d say if the IDF is this confident, have at it then. We can clean up the mess when the blows have been exchanged, and “move on.” I do not believe the US military will go all in, if only because both Russia and China - at the brink- will warn us not to step in. We will heed that warning. With the battle then confined to Israel and Iran (and Hezbollah), it will be game over for Israel, all because of an overzealous leadership indulging in evangelical and yes magical thinking. They will regret their arrogance. My only hope is they have realized the truth of what will happen and will step back from an almost certain total destruction.
I am sorry, but Dan Linnaeus sounds like Dave Petraeus just before the Ukie offensive in 2023.
"Yes the Ukrainians will leverage the capabilities of their superior NATO equipment and training in order to to achieve overmatch against the insufficient Russian fortifications and break the enemies battle focus by disrupting his planning and decision making cycle" blah blah blah.......
Don't get me wrong, Mr. Dan did a wonderful job with the planning metrics. But those provide only the base lines. In a similar case, in the Army, we had Staff Officers Field Manuels that did the same thing for all operations: Defense ops , Raids, Fortified position attacks, Retreats and much more. The Staff Manuel was a bible and about 1000 pages thick. But it could not cover all the intangibles like leadership, weather and just plain luck.
Linnaeus analysis falls under the Mike Tyson theorem of: .... "Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face. "
or
The golden rule:..... No matter how much you plan....the enemy always gets a vote.
The Israel problem is that everything better go exactly as planned, because if it does not, the situation will go south real fast. Also, this is a one shot deal, they better do it right , because they do not, they will not get a second chance. Israel is a small country with a compact population and industrial base. It can be devastated very quickly and will be devastated, if they fail....and maybe .....even if they succeed. This operation truly is a dice roll.
And yes.
Those US troops manning that ADA equipment are Exactly that..... A trip wire. ......Nothing else.
The Pentagon and White House knows the THAAD will not make much of a difference...so why do it? To give The Capital Region an excuse, if they want to use it. To say US forces were attacked.
Also, Remember the USS Liberty? I might be a cynic, but it would not surprise me that the Israelis attack/ kill the THAAD unit themselves, in-order to get the US into the war.
a paraphrase....
"What is the good of choice, when all choices end badly"
JRR Tolkien
Your post pretty much sums up the futility of attempting to corner the world in alliance with an untrustworthy ally.
Excellently apropos - "Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face. " Or they get blinded by the fog of war.
Also fabulous - ‘the Chosen, the Master Race’. What planet do these people think they live on? But more seriously, in what god do they believe? Can’t be the God of the OT, because then they wouldn’t need the US - all it would take then is a couple of priests banging pots together and God would defeat the enemy. They believe in their own agency, not God’s.
Alastair Crooke refers to Iran taking out the X-band radar. That's a part of the THAAD battery, but not the battery itself.
Israeli Channel 14:
The Israeli Retaliation against Iran will be Significant, not Moderate, and will likely cause Iran to Respond as well.
**We need to prepare for a Significant Exchange of Blows, that might drag the Americans in,** which Iran certainly would not want.”
Interesting stuff here. https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/running-out-of-sm-3-at-sea
"Yes, we only have 7 [THAADs]. They cost $1.25 billion per battery and $12.6 million per missile. From a capability point of view, they are A LOT more expensive than a Navy solution, plus we now have US Army soldiers engaged in a combat role feet-dry ashore in Israel.
"A THAAD battery consists six launchers, each with eight missiles. That gives you 48 missiles. A little more than half a DDG’s worth of VLS cells. I’ll let you multiply 48x7.
Compared to having a couple of DDG off the coast, having US Army forces as active participants on the ground is an escalation in our participation in helping Israel defend herself. It does not matter if you think that is a good thing or a bad thing, but it is reality. It narrows options and increases risks. Ground forces have a very different vibe than capabilities at sea.
"I would presume own supply of Arrow ABM must be running thin. Deploying THAAD could not have been an easy decision for Israel or the USA. This isn’t an exercise, this is varsity football.
"With only seven batteries available and the world generally in disarray, the only reason I can think of that would justify this move is simply that the US Navy just can’t bring enough DDG with SM-3 off Israel to do the job. We’ve shot what we’ve got…at least for a bit. What few we have are located elsewhere with missions of their own."
Looks like gulf of Tonkin all over again
Hope I am wrong