Abortion Politics Disconnect
This morning I saw this article, the idea of which is that Dem “analysts” think they need to gin up even more hysteria and rage over Dobbs:
Democrats Fear Massive Decline in Enthusiasm of Young Voters Over Abortion
According to Yahoo News, Democratic analysts fear that the party is not doing enough to show resistance or outrage over the court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, a ruling which overturned both Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, and essentially returned the matter of abortion back to the states to be decided, rather than keep it a federal issue.
The article goes on to list a variety of prominent Dem politicians, including Zhou, who have sought to drum up outrage verging on insurrection over Dobbs. Years and years of polling suggest that the Dems are out of touch with the people. Another problem is that the people are out of touch with … themselves? Biology?
A new poll illustrates what I mean, although I think most people had at least an inkling of this. The polling is discussed in at least two articles today:
Poll: The Republican Position On Abortion Is Most Favorable To The Average American
and
The Polling on Abortion Continues to Make Absolutely Zero Sense
It seems pretty clear that most pollsters simply aren’t asking the right questions. To see this a bit better here is a nice twitter thread that analyzes the polling results. Note that this is very mainstream-to-liberal polling, done by former Clintonista Mark Penn’s outfit. Note also how restrictive the majority would prefer the laws to be.
New polling data out on #Dobbs:
1) Overturning #RoeVsWade: 45% Support/55% Oppose
2) 37% would ban abortion entirely w/ only rape and incest exceptions
3) 49% support abortion ban after 6 wks
4) 72%!! support abortion ban after 15wks
harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/upl…5) Only 10% support Dem. position of allowing abortion up until birth.
6) 44% say it is better for states to set abortion standards; 31% say Congress; and 25% say #SCOTUS
7) 63% say #SCOTUS is legitimate; 59% say it is wrong for Dems to call #SCOTUS illegitimate8) 36% say #Dobbs makes it more likely they will vote GOP in '22; 36% say more likely to vote for Dem.; 29% no difference
I think the key is that a very large percentage of people don’t like abortion at all and want to see it banned except in quite exceptional cases. However, my guess is that these same people think that overturning Roe v. Wade would mean banning the very small percentage of abortions that they would allow. Thus you end up with a quite large majority favoring the “Republican” position while also not wanting Roe overturned! What these people are going to learn over the next months is that the SCOTUS has actually given them what they preferred—by overturning Roe.
Admittedly it’s all weird and frustrating for politicians, but what really jumps out from the responses is just how extreme the Dem positions and rhetoric are in the eyes of most halfway normal Americans. So, one more issue on which Dems are cruising for a bruising, by espousing rhetoric that most Americans regard as fringe/extremist or even un-American.
"What these people are going to learn over the next months is that the SCOTUS has actually given them what they preferred—by overturning Roe."
That to me has always seemed key. As hard as the obscurantists try to keep people convinced that overturning Roe v Wade makes abortion illegal, once the states start enacting their abortion policies, everyone everywhere is eventually going to see the reality. These policies as a whole will appear reasonable to them, and that will be enough to get most of their support. So look for support of Dobbs to grow over the months and years for sure.
If the Republicans came out in support of an 8 or 10 week ban with exceptions for age (14 and younger), mother’s physical health, and allowing induced delivery or c-section at any point for fatal fetal abnormality, they would win this issue over the long term, and save a lot of small humans from being burned alive in saline or ripped apart limb by limb. It would be the long play. They aren’t good enough politically to make it.
Like many Americans, I don’t think bodily autonomy should end at puberty for girls, and I certainly wouldn’t give a rapist’s sperm more rights to reproduction than the girl or woman who got rapped. I also acknowledge a fetus is a stage of human development, and every successful abortion ends an innocent human life. I chose bodily autonomy, but it doesn’t take 3 or more months to assert bodily autonomy. Women and girls are not so hapless and incompetent they need 9 months to decide if they want to kill their own child.
Abortion is not near the top of my list of priorities in voting, and I have come to believe through Covid disasters Democrats position is based on the reality that they simply hate small humans. Dems certainly don’t give a crap about bodily autonomy or Women’s rights. If abortion ever does become a top issue for me, I’ll vote for whichever party lands nearest to an elective ban passed 8 weeks.
I made the mistake of voting for mostly Dems for the first 15 years I could vote, thanks to lots of indoctrination in undergrad and grad school, which is a huge regret I have as a mom now. I don’t intend to make the same mistake again. I am for early choice, but I am NOT for the Dem policies of murdering and destroying little humans just for the hell of it. That puts my position FAR closer to Republicans these days than Democrats. That’s the case for so many issues.