Abortion Politics Disconnect
This morning I saw this article, the idea of which is that Dem “analysts” think they need to gin up even more hysteria and rage over Dobbs:
Democrats Fear Massive Decline in Enthusiasm of Young Voters Over Abortion
According to Yahoo News, Democratic analysts fear that the party is not doing enough to show resistance or outrage over the court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, a ruling which overturned both Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, and essentially returned the matter of abortion back to the states to be decided, rather than keep it a federal issue.
The article goes on to list a variety of prominent Dem politicians, including Zhou, who have sought to drum up outrage verging on insurrection over Dobbs. Years and years of polling suggest that the Dems are out of touch with the people. Another problem is that the people are out of touch with … themselves? Biology?
A new poll illustrates what I mean, although I think most people had at least an inkling of this. The polling is discussed in at least two articles today:
Poll: The Republican Position On Abortion Is Most Favorable To The Average American
and
The Polling on Abortion Continues to Make Absolutely Zero Sense
It seems pretty clear that most pollsters simply aren’t asking the right questions. To see this a bit better here is a nice twitter thread that analyzes the polling results. Note that this is very mainstream-to-liberal polling, done by former Clintonista Mark Penn’s outfit. Note also how restrictive the majority would prefer the laws to be.
New polling data out on #Dobbs:
1) Overturning #RoeVsWade: 45% Support/55% Oppose
2) 37% would ban abortion entirely w/ only rape and incest exceptions
3) 49% support abortion ban after 6 wks
4) 72%!! support abortion ban after 15wks
harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/upl…5) Only 10% support Dem. position of allowing abortion up until birth.
6) 44% say it is better for states to set abortion standards; 31% say Congress; and 25% say #SCOTUS
7) 63% say #SCOTUS is legitimate; 59% say it is wrong for Dems to call #SCOTUS illegitimate8) 36% say #Dobbs makes it more likely they will vote GOP in '22; 36% say more likely to vote for Dem.; 29% no difference
I think the key is that a very large percentage of people don’t like abortion at all and want to see it banned except in quite exceptional cases. However, my guess is that these same people think that overturning Roe v. Wade would mean banning the very small percentage of abortions that they would allow. Thus you end up with a quite large majority favoring the “Republican” position while also not wanting Roe overturned! What these people are going to learn over the next months is that the SCOTUS has actually given them what they preferred—by overturning Roe.
Admittedly it’s all weird and frustrating for politicians, but what really jumps out from the responses is just how extreme the Dem positions and rhetoric are in the eyes of most halfway normal Americans. So, one more issue on which Dems are cruising for a bruising, by espousing rhetoric that most Americans regard as fringe/extremist or even un-American.
Dems' haven't had to defend their position since Roe. And starting on campuses around the 90s, but now mainstream among Dems, they feel no need to even attempt to persuade anyone of their points of view. They've gotten lazy about the abortion issue, and they are so uncomfortable convincing anyone of their view. Their instincts are to double down and ratchet up how extreme their rhetoric is--exactly the opposite approach required here. Never thought I'd see this play out quite this way, but the Dems might end up worse off after Roe being overturned.
Dems preferred position is to never explain their policy. Once they go past rhetorical talking points, as in Bill Clinton's "safe, legal, and rare," they get as many objections as questions about the details.
Many will naturally sympathize with the rarity of incest and rape--but that is not the reality of abortion in the main, but rather the exception. Now, Dems will have to spell out their policy views, and given the polling, it doesn't look good for an unconstrained position--while moderating their views on any subject has never been a Dem strong point.