It’s the third day after the Prigozhin regime change farce in Russia, and nothing has risen from the ashes of the farce. The rumors continue to swirl, ranging from Scott Ritter’s conviction that this attempt at regime change in Russia was orchestrated by the US/UK intel services, to the usual “maskirovka” theories that this was all theater that Putin and Prigozhin worked up between them, and that Prigozhin will shortly emerge from exile in Belarus to lead some new excellent adventure of Wagner PMC. I tend to Ritter’s view and, in the absence of hard data, this seems like a good time to indulge in speculation—and I think there’s a way to incorporate at least some of the ‘theater’ elements of the farce into Ritter’s theory.
UK politicians are really trying to spin this fubar as Putin is weakened and we must double down on our support for the Nazis. Ben Wallace/James Cleverly (while addressing Parliament) and Sunak all stated we are dealing with a weakened Russian state. Curiously they appeared a tad subdued. The usual talking head 'experts' are spouting such nonsense I'm becoming more embarassed to be British by the day.
The other theory out there that seems at least plausible is that the Wagner mutiny was chiefly aimed at smoking out top level military and government officials who were plotting a coup against Putin. That Prighozhin was in on it and that's why there's no punishment for himor Wagnerites. Just the opposite. Appears Wagner is going to Belarus for important leverage. If this was a real mutiny, no way in hell you don't break this pmc apart or trust them w important roles in Belarus.
Our learned Indian diplomat, Bhadrakumar, is well worth a read this morning! He is in fine form, even citing Sting’s “every step you take” lyrics to show how Russia’s FSB has known about P’s caper going back for months. After a run-down of events which largely endorse Putin’s actions, and a “to do” list to clean up the Wagner mess, he remarks:
“To be sure, now that the CIA-MI6- Prigozhin plot has failed, out of its debris, new western narratives will be born like a Phoenix out of the ashes. And the US’ sleeping cells abroad, including in the Indian media, will parrot that narrative.”
His views entirely corroborate Mark’s theory. The pity is the Russians’s determination will only harden…and, as usual, Blinken achieves the opposite of what he intended: Putin is again firmly in control.
Yes, it's very good. I hurried a bit yesterday to get my views out because I was pretty sure others would be coming to similar conclusions. No doubt there will be further clarifications. For example, there's a lot of credulous acceptance of the public version of Lukashenko's role--don't buy it. Putin is constructing a narrative for his own purposes, for sending a message to the world, but I have no doubt he was directing it all--with his direct subordinates, especially at the FSB. One of the messages that leaders around the world will be getting is the contrast between competence v. the collective West. The competence with which the CIA/MI6 globalist cabal was played and handled will not be lost on most of the world.
Just as the nukes in Belarus are under Russian control, you can bet Prigozhin is under FSB control--reporting back to Putin. Also, there's a lot of talk about Wagner as if it will continue in something like its present form--attacking toward Kiev, etc. Wagner is now part of the Russian military, having signed contracts with the MoD. Putin has learned the dangers of using mercenaries to that extent.
Nothing Prigozhin said in his numerous videos was true or made any sense at all. For example, "In his final pre-farce statements, Prigozhin claimed that there was no justification for the SMO at all—no threat to Russia from Ukraine or NATO..." This is preposterous, Prigozhin and Wagner most certainly believed there was a bona fide justification for the SMO...they voluntarily agree to enter the conflict, suffered substantial casualties fighting the conflict, and were paid handsomely for their efforts and sacrifices. There is no f'ing way Prigozhin believes there was no justification. If he did, his own mercenaries would surely arrange to expire him.
If this is a lie...and it is a lie...every preposterous statement Prigozhin made was a lie.
So the remaining question is who put him up to it, why did he do it, and cui bono. I'm digesting all the theories posted here but haven't made up my mind. The whole episode was so stupid and clownish, it would seem to have had to originate in some dark bunker populated by Zelensky and MI6 or CIA. As to why Prigozhin would have done it, and utterly destroyed his reputation and undoubtedly put his life at risk, money, and lots of it, is always a good answer. As to cui bono, well yes, Prigozhin if he actually got paid and thinks he will stay alive. Ukraine might have thought it would benefit, too, from making the RF look weak. But in the end, it doesn't look weak. And yes, Putin benefits because the whole pathetic exercise didn't make a dent on Russia's prospects for victory.
"The whole episode was so stupid and clownish, it would seem to have had to originate in some dark bunker populated by Zelensky and MI6 or CIA." Had to repeat that. The words "stupid and clownish" would seem to describe everything our regime is doing nowadays. Has anybody heard the radio, even those outlets not always in line with the mainstream media? Poor Putin. Poor Russia.
I tend to lean into Ritter's points. Putin is as serious as they come. He's always 2 steps ahead. This uprising caught him by surprise. He dealt with it fairly swiftly and minimal cost.
Prigozhin on the other hand is now sidelined. I'm sure his communications are monitored, being guarded, and will sit quietly going forward. Prigo's as unstable and unpredictable as they come.
Further, those Wagner's who want to continue will be required to sign contracts with the MOD. They'll be integrated into the Russian SMO after a cooling off period. Those not interested will quietly go away (while being tracked). All this farce about Wagner engineering some Kiev attack is bunk. To this end, hysterics by the UK and Poland that Wagner in Belarus is a threat is intended to keep the war banter flowing. Having Wagner's initiate action from Belarus only broadens the war further.
In a few days we won't hardly remember this uprising. Rationale thinking is not taking place.
What's the results? Putin now has part of Wagner in Belarus only about 150 miles from Key-ĕv. Oh, and they have access to tactical nukes. If Putin didn't plan this then it worked out about as well as he could have hoped.
Credit for my comment comes from a conversation with a group of vets at a function over the weekend, not from me. Confirmation of their take by listening to Tom's weekly update on the drive home this morning.
Might be subscribing too much cunning to Putin, but the idea that he set the whole thing up and told Prigozhin to put on a good show and take the money, well, it just has that touch of “yeh, that sounds right” to it for me to want to bet half the rent money and not be too embarrassed if it turns out to not be the case. These clowns haven’t figured out that they have Putin right where he wants them. Not to mention that if that’s what did happen, they’ll be waay too embarrassed to ever admit that they got played big time.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic charged that “foreign services” were involved in the Saturday coup attempt: “I don’t want to say who was involved from the outside, but have no doubts.”
Kim Dotcom suggests the $6.5 billion the Pentagon found for Ukraine went to Prigozhin. Hey, why not?
Wow, this Prigozhin business is proving a massive diversion from that Titanic sub story, isn't it? Joking aside, the coup seems to have been a genuine attempt at affecting change, rather than a psyops/Maskirovka by Putin to divert Ukrainian attention from Russian troop movements, etc. It is becoming clearer too that the CIA at least knew about it a few weeks back. Maybe, as you suggest, Putin knew too. I have a lot of respect for Alex M at The Duran, but I disagree that this is going to have long term negative repercussions for Putin and his grasp on the situation concerning Russia's allies. He handled it extremely well, without showing weakness or excessive Stalin-style retributions. The main take-away is that no one, not even Putin's opponents, sided with P, and the coup attempt showed how amazingly unified and single-minded the Russians are about getting the job done.
Everyone is considering yesterday's strange events from the view that east and west are enemies. Are they? I've tended to see the Ukraine war as another scam, like the scamdemic. Lots of claims, fearmongering, distractions and useful shinny objects. I don't know, I'm speculating like everyone else.
Not so, in my opinion. For Russia at least, it's a fight to the death. And it's probably the same for the US because there is no way they are going to accept no longer being Top Dog
If Prigohzin and Putin were in this together...what of the helicopter and EW aircraft allegedly shot down by Wagner
Odd that Putin never referred to Priggy in his address yesterday nor did he to my knowledge specifically mention the loss of aircraft and crews.
I don't see Putin sacrificing crews and aircraft for a psyops?
IF Priggy was/is a Western asset then how could Putin let him walk away.????? Some say to prevent bloodshed and a civil war which is what Brandon and Nuland wanted?
We all know Putin is a master chess player.
Lugano said this morning Putin wasn't even playing 5 level chess on this...just regular chess.
Wait for a few weeks to find out, if anyone ever investigates it, where Prighozin lands. I seriously doubt he will remain in Belarus if he was authentically trying for a coup. If he ends up in Poland, and isn't arrested on war crimes, then D.C. was behind this coup attempt.
I don't think we've seen the end of this, but it'll play out later with probably less fanfare. I think Mercouris is right that the rumors that Putin did a deal and will sack half the MoD whom Prigozhin dislikes is utterly daft.
Sounds as though some kind of deal was made to de-escalate, and get the Wagner rebels back to their bases. But there's no way Putin would bend over backwards to meet P's big demands.
The one thing I don't get is why the troops who marched on Moscow are being let off. I'm prepared to be open to most theories but I don't buy that 2000 men who took part in this would have been allowed to just go back to base. It suggests to me something else is/was going on.
Sounds very lenient, doesn't it? Maybe they've escaped an official court martial/firing squad, but they might find themselves in a less than pleasant military unit where they can do no harm.
It will play out later with maximum damage to the Ukraine, NATO and America. It seems Putin is too much of a softie to stage a real faux 'insurrection' like Pelosi and the Capitol police. Having successfully staged this 'Reichstag fire' so the votes were not subject to scrutiny, our geniuses decided to extract maximum mileage out of this and keep the J6ers like a festering sore on the American body politic. They may even indict Trump on this, and the fireworks will commence. The Russians will just continue in harmony with light punishment, if anything, for the participants in this, and it will shortly be forgotten.
This theory about Prighozin makes some significant sense. I have been working from the theory that Prighozin simply had a nervous break-down and did a seriously unhinged thing- try to take down Putin with 2-3K soldiers a thousand miles from Moscow. However, his coming to his "senses" and backing away from the abyss argues against that. The idea that Prighozin was meant to act after a Ukrainian breakthrough does sound like a plan someone in D.C. could come up with and attempt to buy Prighozin into supporting at the right moment. The plan failed (it was always going to fail absent air support from NATO) since the Ukrainians couldn't even win a kilometer's worth of ground in three weeks time.
The neocons may have got to him, but I'm still sticking with Occam's Razor. Prig was never a very stable character and best and the reality of losing Wagner's key status in the Order of Battle, probably sent him over the edge.
The plan was so ludicrous that it is easy to speculate that western intelligence was behind it or involved in it. Especially given that the western media was prepped for it. What we don't know for sure, of course, are Prighozin's intentions in this affair and his mindset.
If this truly was a coup attempt, why would Proghizin announce ahead of time it was only a "march for justice" and involve only a small number of his troops in that march? Or was it a real attempt that was aborted before that point? If it was a real attempt, why would Putin make himself look weak by not jailing Prighozin immediately instead of dropping charges? Also of note, I read somewhere that Putin's speech was not televised to the Russian people, only to a western audience... hmm
As you and Mark note what happens in the future to Prighozin could provide an answer to the question of whether it was Maskirova or not... but we may never know. So much still does not seem to add up, either way.
Good one Mark. I also heard pretty good theory on Tom Luongo’s Chanel - look what happened in the end. Wagner with the hard core fighters are “relocated” to Belarus. Too damn close to Kiev and Polish borders. Belarus have nukes and there is almost zero chance of regime change in Minsk while Priggo is “residing” there. So how collective West won? Plus we should keep eyes on those recently discovered accounting error in Pentagon = over $6B.
Did morons in Washington paid Wagner to roll on Moscow and now Putin and Priggo are laughing their rear ends off? I mean how in the right mind anyone would really expect hundreds of military vehicles driving that long distance? Fuel? Food? etc...
Just a thought, brother. Keep up with your great work.
UK politicians are really trying to spin this fubar as Putin is weakened and we must double down on our support for the Nazis. Ben Wallace/James Cleverly (while addressing Parliament) and Sunak all stated we are dealing with a weakened Russian state. Curiously they appeared a tad subdued. The usual talking head 'experts' are spouting such nonsense I'm becoming more embarassed to be British by the day.
https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1672997440893382656?cxt=HHwWgMCz6d-T17cuAAAA
Luongo and The Duran talking about Whitehall bitterness over rejection by US of Wallace to head NATO.
I watched little Benny speaking tonight - he is definitely deflated. He sounded as though he was just going through the scripted motions.
The other theory out there that seems at least plausible is that the Wagner mutiny was chiefly aimed at smoking out top level military and government officials who were plotting a coup against Putin. That Prighozhin was in on it and that's why there's no punishment for himor Wagnerites. Just the opposite. Appears Wagner is going to Belarus for important leverage. If this was a real mutiny, no way in hell you don't break this pmc apart or trust them w important roles in Belarus.
Our learned Indian diplomat, Bhadrakumar, is well worth a read this morning! He is in fine form, even citing Sting’s “every step you take” lyrics to show how Russia’s FSB has known about P’s caper going back for months. After a run-down of events which largely endorse Putin’s actions, and a “to do” list to clean up the Wagner mess, he remarks:
“To be sure, now that the CIA-MI6- Prigozhin plot has failed, out of its debris, new western narratives will be born like a Phoenix out of the ashes. And the US’ sleeping cells abroad, including in the Indian media, will parrot that narrative.”
His views entirely corroborate Mark’s theory. The pity is the Russians’s determination will only harden…and, as usual, Blinken achieves the opposite of what he intended: Putin is again firmly in control.
Yes, it's very good. I hurried a bit yesterday to get my views out because I was pretty sure others would be coming to similar conclusions. No doubt there will be further clarifications. For example, there's a lot of credulous acceptance of the public version of Lukashenko's role--don't buy it. Putin is constructing a narrative for his own purposes, for sending a message to the world, but I have no doubt he was directing it all--with his direct subordinates, especially at the FSB. One of the messages that leaders around the world will be getting is the contrast between competence v. the collective West. The competence with which the CIA/MI6 globalist cabal was played and handled will not be lost on most of the world.
Just as the nukes in Belarus are under Russian control, you can bet Prigozhin is under FSB control--reporting back to Putin. Also, there's a lot of talk about Wagner as if it will continue in something like its present form--attacking toward Kiev, etc. Wagner is now part of the Russian military, having signed contracts with the MoD. Putin has learned the dangers of using mercenaries to that extent.
You do a tremendous job interweaving all the various skeins of fact and rumour, certainty and supposition: a regular Sherlock Holmes of geopolitics!
Thanks very much.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/fsb-spooked-the-cia-on-prigozhin-coup/
Nothing Prigozhin said in his numerous videos was true or made any sense at all. For example, "In his final pre-farce statements, Prigozhin claimed that there was no justification for the SMO at all—no threat to Russia from Ukraine or NATO..." This is preposterous, Prigozhin and Wagner most certainly believed there was a bona fide justification for the SMO...they voluntarily agree to enter the conflict, suffered substantial casualties fighting the conflict, and were paid handsomely for their efforts and sacrifices. There is no f'ing way Prigozhin believes there was no justification. If he did, his own mercenaries would surely arrange to expire him.
If this is a lie...and it is a lie...every preposterous statement Prigozhin made was a lie.
So the remaining question is who put him up to it, why did he do it, and cui bono. I'm digesting all the theories posted here but haven't made up my mind. The whole episode was so stupid and clownish, it would seem to have had to originate in some dark bunker populated by Zelensky and MI6 or CIA. As to why Prigozhin would have done it, and utterly destroyed his reputation and undoubtedly put his life at risk, money, and lots of it, is always a good answer. As to cui bono, well yes, Prigozhin if he actually got paid and thinks he will stay alive. Ukraine might have thought it would benefit, too, from making the RF look weak. But in the end, it doesn't look weak. And yes, Putin benefits because the whole pathetic exercise didn't make a dent on Russia's prospects for victory.
So we shall see.
"The whole episode was so stupid and clownish, it would seem to have had to originate in some dark bunker populated by Zelensky and MI6 or CIA." Had to repeat that. The words "stupid and clownish" would seem to describe everything our regime is doing nowadays. Has anybody heard the radio, even those outlets not always in line with the mainstream media? Poor Putin. Poor Russia.
My own feelings: Poor Amerikka.
I tend to lean into Ritter's points. Putin is as serious as they come. He's always 2 steps ahead. This uprising caught him by surprise. He dealt with it fairly swiftly and minimal cost.
Prigozhin on the other hand is now sidelined. I'm sure his communications are monitored, being guarded, and will sit quietly going forward. Prigo's as unstable and unpredictable as they come.
Further, those Wagner's who want to continue will be required to sign contracts with the MOD. They'll be integrated into the Russian SMO after a cooling off period. Those not interested will quietly go away (while being tracked). All this farce about Wagner engineering some Kiev attack is bunk. To this end, hysterics by the UK and Poland that Wagner in Belarus is a threat is intended to keep the war banter flowing. Having Wagner's initiate action from Belarus only broadens the war further.
In a few days we won't hardly remember this uprising. Rationale thinking is not taking place.
What's the results? Putin now has part of Wagner in Belarus only about 150 miles from Key-ĕv. Oh, and they have access to tactical nukes. If Putin didn't plan this then it worked out about as well as he could have hoped.
Credit for my comment comes from a conversation with a group of vets at a function over the weekend, not from me. Confirmation of their take by listening to Tom's weekly update on the drive home this morning.
Loungo just posted some damn good analysis on his site...
Yup, a hum-dinger!
Might be subscribing too much cunning to Putin, but the idea that he set the whole thing up and told Prigozhin to put on a good show and take the money, well, it just has that touch of “yeh, that sounds right” to it for me to want to bet half the rent money and not be too embarrassed if it turns out to not be the case. These clowns haven’t figured out that they have Putin right where he wants them. Not to mention that if that’s what did happen, they’ll be waay too embarrassed to ever admit that they got played big time.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic charged that “foreign services” were involved in the Saturday coup attempt: “I don’t want to say who was involved from the outside, but have no doubts.”
Kim Dotcom suggests the $6.5 billion the Pentagon found for Ukraine went to Prigozhin. Hey, why not?
When things smell like a rat - think Great Britain.
He turns out to be a better “business man” than Hunter if true.
Another day, another war, another coup. All in a Neocon day’s work.
Wow, this Prigozhin business is proving a massive diversion from that Titanic sub story, isn't it? Joking aside, the coup seems to have been a genuine attempt at affecting change, rather than a psyops/Maskirovka by Putin to divert Ukrainian attention from Russian troop movements, etc. It is becoming clearer too that the CIA at least knew about it a few weeks back. Maybe, as you suggest, Putin knew too. I have a lot of respect for Alex M at The Duran, but I disagree that this is going to have long term negative repercussions for Putin and his grasp on the situation concerning Russia's allies. He handled it extremely well, without showing weakness or excessive Stalin-style retributions. The main take-away is that no one, not even Putin's opponents, sided with P, and the coup attempt showed how amazingly unified and single-minded the Russians are about getting the job done.
"I disagree that this is going to have long term negative repercussions for Putin"
That's what I'm thinking, too.
Simplicius suggests too that this whole episode could leave Putin stronger.
The news cycle is so fast and febrile these days that this could be forgotten by next week.
Everyone is considering yesterday's strange events from the view that east and west are enemies. Are they? I've tended to see the Ukraine war as another scam, like the scamdemic. Lots of claims, fearmongering, distractions and useful shinny objects. I don't know, I'm speculating like everyone else.
Not so, in my opinion. For Russia at least, it's a fight to the death. And it's probably the same for the US because there is no way they are going to accept no longer being Top Dog
Great analysis Mark.
If Prigohzin and Putin were in this together...what of the helicopter and EW aircraft allegedly shot down by Wagner
Odd that Putin never referred to Priggy in his address yesterday nor did he to my knowledge specifically mention the loss of aircraft and crews.
I don't see Putin sacrificing crews and aircraft for a psyops?
IF Priggy was/is a Western asset then how could Putin let him walk away.????? Some say to prevent bloodshed and a civil war which is what Brandon and Nuland wanted?
We all know Putin is a master chess player.
Lugano said this morning Putin wasn't even playing 5 level chess on this...just regular chess.
Makes my head spin. One word BIZARRE!
Putin may have known in advance, but I don't think he was in on it. In his speech, he sounded very p*ssed off.
Tom sated on his morning update, yesterday that he thinks Putin was sounding so pissed because GB/US are playing stupid games which he has to handle.
Wait for a few weeks to find out, if anyone ever investigates it, where Prighozin lands. I seriously doubt he will remain in Belarus if he was authentically trying for a coup. If he ends up in Poland, and isn't arrested on war crimes, then D.C. was behind this coup attempt.
If he isn't bumped off, I suspect a new posting as head of Wagner's Congo operations.
Maybe he'll be put on a special green veggie and polonium diet.
I don't think we've seen the end of this, but it'll play out later with probably less fanfare. I think Mercouris is right that the rumors that Putin did a deal and will sack half the MoD whom Prigozhin dislikes is utterly daft.
Sounds as though some kind of deal was made to de-escalate, and get the Wagner rebels back to their bases. But there's no way Putin would bend over backwards to meet P's big demands.
The one thing I don't get is why the troops who marched on Moscow are being let off. I'm prepared to be open to most theories but I don't buy that 2000 men who took part in this would have been allowed to just go back to base. It suggests to me something else is/was going on.
Sounds very lenient, doesn't it? Maybe they've escaped an official court martial/firing squad, but they might find themselves in a less than pleasant military unit where they can do no harm.
It will play out later with maximum damage to the Ukraine, NATO and America. It seems Putin is too much of a softie to stage a real faux 'insurrection' like Pelosi and the Capitol police. Having successfully staged this 'Reichstag fire' so the votes were not subject to scrutiny, our geniuses decided to extract maximum mileage out of this and keep the J6ers like a festering sore on the American body politic. They may even indict Trump on this, and the fireworks will commence. The Russians will just continue in harmony with light punishment, if anything, for the participants in this, and it will shortly be forgotten.
This theory about Prighozin makes some significant sense. I have been working from the theory that Prighozin simply had a nervous break-down and did a seriously unhinged thing- try to take down Putin with 2-3K soldiers a thousand miles from Moscow. However, his coming to his "senses" and backing away from the abyss argues against that. The idea that Prighozin was meant to act after a Ukrainian breakthrough does sound like a plan someone in D.C. could come up with and attempt to buy Prighozin into supporting at the right moment. The plan failed (it was always going to fail absent air support from NATO) since the Ukrainians couldn't even win a kilometer's worth of ground in three weeks time.
The neocons may have got to him, but I'm still sticking with Occam's Razor. Prig was never a very stable character and best and the reality of losing Wagner's key status in the Order of Battle, probably sent him over the edge.
The plan was so ludicrous that it is easy to speculate that western intelligence was behind it or involved in it. Especially given that the western media was prepped for it. What we don't know for sure, of course, are Prighozin's intentions in this affair and his mindset.
If this truly was a coup attempt, why would Proghizin announce ahead of time it was only a "march for justice" and involve only a small number of his troops in that march? Or was it a real attempt that was aborted before that point? If it was a real attempt, why would Putin make himself look weak by not jailing Prighozin immediately instead of dropping charges? Also of note, I read somewhere that Putin's speech was not televised to the Russian people, only to a western audience... hmm
As you and Mark note what happens in the future to Prighozin could provide an answer to the question of whether it was Maskirova or not... but we may never know. So much still does not seem to add up, either way.
I admit, it does have Nuland's incompetent paw marks all over it. Who knows?
I didn't know that lizards have paws...Wow!
"The plan was so ludicrous that it is easy to speculate that western intelligence was behind it or involved in it."
Definitely a factor.
Yeah, Utkin's role needs explanation.
It’s a good theory, and entirely plausible.
Good one Mark. I also heard pretty good theory on Tom Luongo’s Chanel - look what happened in the end. Wagner with the hard core fighters are “relocated” to Belarus. Too damn close to Kiev and Polish borders. Belarus have nukes and there is almost zero chance of regime change in Minsk while Priggo is “residing” there. So how collective West won? Plus we should keep eyes on those recently discovered accounting error in Pentagon = over $6B.
Did morons in Washington paid Wagner to roll on Moscow and now Putin and Priggo are laughing their rear ends off? I mean how in the right mind anyone would really expect hundreds of military vehicles driving that long distance? Fuel? Food? etc...
Just a thought, brother. Keep up with your great work.