A New Russian Redline

I did a search and didn’t come up with an English version of this announcement. It is obviously a Russian response to the Storm Shadow attack on a bridge in Crimea. Doctorow is generally very reliable, so I assume that his wording reflects the Russian original. So, what I would draw attention to is the specification of ““the decision making centers” of the Kiev regime.

We all know that those decision making centers are not necessarily located within the geographical boundaries of Ukraine. Does this mean that Russia will target US/UK decision making centers in Poland and Romania? It’s hard to say for sure. It depends on how you define “Kiev regime” and how you determine whether any given “decision making center” is an arm of the Kiev regime. I could argue that by classifying the US/UK as co-belligerents with the Kiev regime this could lead Russia to strike outside Ukraine.

I hasten to add that, for now, this redline applies to attacks on Russian territory. Nevertheless, this does suggest an escalation on the policy level.

End game in the Ukraine war approaches with lightning speed
Doctorow ^ | 20 June 23 | Gilbert Doctorow

Today Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made an announcement that has not yet been carried in Western media but which is of the most grave nature.

According to the latest intelligence reports, Russia believes that the Ukrainian armed forces now intend to cover their failed counter-offensive in the Donbas by using US-supplied Himars multiple launch artillery and UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, possibly in the longer range domestic version, to attack the Crimea.

If this happens, says Shoigu, Russia will consider both the United States and Britain to have fully entered the war as co-belligerents. And Russia will immediately respond to any such attack on its territory by destroying “the decision making centers” of the Kiev regime. This is a fairly transparent threat to “neutralize” their government apparatus and personnel, logically including President Zelensky.

The statement by Shoigu leaves little doubt that we are entering the final phase of the Ukraine war as a war limited to the geography of Ukraine, and are possibly heading into a wider war with unforeseeable consequences both for Europeans and (finally) for Americans.

The ball is in the court of Washington and London.