I did a search and didn’t come up with an English version of this announcement. It is obviously a Russian response to the Storm Shadow attack on a bridge in Crimea. Doctorow is generally very reliable, so I assume that his wording reflects the Russian original. So, what I would draw attention to is the specification of ““the decision making centers”
Woke up to Larry Johnson's hypothesis which is worth pondering in light of Mark's Scott Ritter post. I mean at this point anything is possible since we certainly aint in Kansas anymore....
Very plausible, and I especially like the idea that the Potamkin guv'mint in Washington, DC was sucked into this, especially the not very intelligent intelligence services. Oh, I forgot, they re too busy fabricating indictments on Trump to pay much attention to anything else.
After our government has been funding a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine for over a year, I sure hope our government isn’t behind a coup attempt currently happening in Russia.
Regime change in a nuclear armed country may lead to terrible consequences the American people don’t…
— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (@RepMTG) June 24, 2023
Fox News Host Rachel Duffy also is also questioning if the US government was behind the recent moves by the Wagner group.
WATCH:
Fox News Host Rachel Campos-Duffy Questions If US Government Is Behind Wagner’s latest moves
Here's the way I understand this. I haven't seen anything official that any part of Wagner will be stationed in Belarus. Prigozhin being sent to Belarus is exile from Russia, but also sounds like house arrest. No way is he going to be allowed to conduct a propaganda campaign from there.
As for Wagner, they are being required to sign contracts with the Russian army. That means that their relationship with Prigozhin is over. Wagner loses its separate status.
The way that the Russian Ministry of Defense and Kremlin are talking it sounds like Prigozhin decided to “Jump Ship” and Retire to a Life in Belarus, while Wagner Forces will be Reorganized under the MoD with the remainder going on with their Lives; this may be the End of Wagner.
Baron of the Taiga has a long interesting thread on these events. The part that interested me the most was that he asserts that Wagner PMC was established to get around unspecified "stifling restrictions" in RF constitution. I assume that means restrictions on the ability to deploy regular military forces quickly--in crisis situations--without jumping through constitutional hoops. He compares this episode to the streltsy of the 17th century, who became a sort of praetorian guard and force in Moscow politics, till they were savagely put down by Peter the Great.
So let me get this straight, Wagner basically makes a “parade home”, 200 klicks shy of Moscow. It’s head goes into retirement. (I haven’t memorized the spelling of his last name and now I won’t have to.) The remainder of the W Group is blanket absolved for any “crimes” and gets wholly adopted by the Russian Army as a stand alone Division.
And as part of “The Deal”, the command structure of the entire existing Russian military is reformed in one fell swoop?
Time will tell, but I think Team Nuland is hitting the lint and splinter sections in their suggestion box.
Russian literature has toyed with far more twists and turns than this magical result.
Also, I believe “decision centers” refers to the Ukrainian bunker system (DUMBS) that were built before the collapse of the USSR and are now used by NATO advisors with their Ukrainian (Azov) brass. There was a big one under the Azovstal Steel plant in Mariupol, and Ukraine’s Intelligence Minister did not survive a penetrating hypersonic missile strike that everyone in press said it was a “miss”. Budanev, I think, was his name.
Geroman and others are now having their fun. This article features at The Atlantic:
Russia Slides Into Civil War
Is Putin facing his Czar Nicholas II moment?
By Anne Applebaum
Geroman retorts:
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell --
@GeromanAT
as it turns out no
so your orgasm was just premature
Others point to significant gains for Putin. The problem for so many in the West is that they think Putin, like Biden thinks of Xi, is a "dictator". It ain't like that. The liberal West always looks for the simple(minded) solution--a universal boogeyman. No, Putin has to build support before bringing on new policies. The bit about CTO martial law powers could prove to be important:
Pepe Escobar
@RealPepeEscobar
Putin wins ON ALL COUNTS.
Making an absolute ass of Western MSM again;
Rallying people to end the war quicker;
Amassing a list of traitors and 5th, 6th columnists;
It's great fun skimming through the Citizen Free Press headlines for this one: the earliest start slowly, then they build up into a catastrophic "Russia descending into anarchy" crescendo, the fizzle out completely when the editors realise that it's all over.
They need to take out the rest of the decision-making centres now in the hope, probably vain, that either the neocons themselves will get the message, or that any wiser heads left in the Pentagon will get their act together.
I think we have, as a collective of humanity, reached the point where we must realise that it is we who are in charge and remove them as swiftly as possible.
Fantasize all you want but if Progozhin dies no matter how or why Putin will get the blame so how is any of this a bad thing, both men are scum of the earth and need to go.
Followed the link. and clicked on another. "Putin looked into the abyss Saturday and blinked." I really have to check out WAPO more often Add a little humor to life.
F-16's won't be carrying any nukes. stationed in Poland and Romania. If used in the field of battle their bases are legit targets IMO. It's not called escalation for nothing. Punch/counterpunch.
The nukes the F16 can carry are basically iron bomb types, so a minor threat.
Plus the F-16 is a 1976 design, with updates, going against a best in the world, modern air defense system. And the F-16 requires a clean, no debris airfield. The intakes are on the bottom. This limits the airfields that can be used.
Bottom line F-16’s to Ukraine are not a game changer.
The problem with the F16s isn't the aircraft themselves. The Russians can take them out in their sleep. The problem is where they will be taking off from. If it's Romania or Poland, then the Russians will have to decide (as Frances says) whether to hit the airfields in those countries. This will give the neocons the excuse they need to widen the war.
One would think so, Ray, but the problem is that the neocons have no reverse gear. Someone from within the US political/military establishment is going to have to step up to the plate and cancel these folks.
F-16’s are only one of the available options for delivering nukes, and not a great one.
And I doubt the West is willing to go first use on nukes in Ukraine. False flags of dirty bombs, attacks on nuke reactors, etc. are a different matter. And right now Russia is winning, so I doubt they will go first use of nukes.
I have no idea how long it would take Ukraine to develop their own nukes.
Woke up to Larry Johnson's hypothesis which is worth pondering in light of Mark's Scott Ritter post. I mean at this point anything is possible since we certainly aint in Kansas anymore....
https://sonar21.com/russias-academy-award-winning-performance-for-best-coup-prigozhin-scores-best-actor/
Very plausible, and I especially like the idea that the Potamkin guv'mint in Washington, DC was sucked into this, especially the not very intelligent intelligence services. Oh, I forgot, they re too busy fabricating indictments on Trump to pay much attention to anything else.
What nonsense.
MTG:
After our government has been funding a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine for over a year, I sure hope our government isn’t behind a coup attempt currently happening in Russia.
Regime change in a nuclear armed country may lead to terrible consequences the American people don’t…
— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (@RepMTG) June 24, 2023
Fox News Host Rachel Duffy also is also questioning if the US government was behind the recent moves by the Wagner group.
WATCH:
Fox News Host Rachel Campos-Duffy Questions If US Government Is Behind Wagner’s latest moves
pic.twitter.com/oBqUuBT6el
— The Triune Times (@TriuneTimes) June 25, 2023
this just arrived in my email.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/prigozhins-siege-ends-postmortem?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=130789627&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
"Prigozhin has accepted a deal to essentially be ‘exiled’ to Belarus, where Wagner will work on the Polish-Belarus border. "
This might be the most important piece.
Wagner is not being absorbed in Belarus.
Here's the way I understand this. I haven't seen anything official that any part of Wagner will be stationed in Belarus. Prigozhin being sent to Belarus is exile from Russia, but also sounds like house arrest. No way is he going to be allowed to conduct a propaganda campaign from there.
As for Wagner, they are being required to sign contracts with the Russian army. That means that their relationship with Prigozhin is over. Wagner loses its separate status.
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
The way that the Russian Ministry of Defense and Kremlin are talking it sounds like Prigozhin decided to “Jump Ship” and Retire to a Life in Belarus, while Wagner Forces will be Reorganized under the MoD with the remainder going on with their Lives; this may be the End of Wagner.
I wonder if the Belarusians will allow Prig a wifi connection?
Putin's opponents, so far, have not had to worry about retirement.
Baron of the Taiga has a long interesting thread on these events. The part that interested me the most was that he asserts that Wagner PMC was established to get around unspecified "stifling restrictions" in RF constitution. I assume that means restrictions on the ability to deploy regular military forces quickly--in crisis situations--without jumping through constitutional hoops. He compares this episode to the streltsy of the 17th century, who became a sort of praetorian guard and force in Moscow politics, till they were savagely put down by Peter the Great.
So let me get this straight, Wagner basically makes a “parade home”, 200 klicks shy of Moscow. It’s head goes into retirement. (I haven’t memorized the spelling of his last name and now I won’t have to.) The remainder of the W Group is blanket absolved for any “crimes” and gets wholly adopted by the Russian Army as a stand alone Division.
And as part of “The Deal”, the command structure of the entire existing Russian military is reformed in one fell swoop?
Time will tell, but I think Team Nuland is hitting the lint and splinter sections in their suggestion box.
Russian literature has toyed with far more twists and turns than this magical result.
Also, I believe “decision centers” refers to the Ukrainian bunker system (DUMBS) that were built before the collapse of the USSR and are now used by NATO advisors with their Ukrainian (Azov) brass. There was a big one under the Azovstal Steel plant in Mariupol, and Ukraine’s Intelligence Minister did not survive a penetrating hypersonic missile strike that everyone in press said it was a “miss”. Budanev, I think, was his name.
Latest from Zerohedge on the Prigozhin malarkey:
"charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus
Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD
Wagner fighters who did take part not charged
No word on potential MOD leadership changes"
"What's clear is that it does indeed look to be over, with no further immediate danger of civil conflict"
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-blasts-wagner-treason-betrayal-clashes-erupt-southern-russia
I'm looking forward to the G7 meeting to discuss what to do with a Russia torn apart by civil war!
The neocons are desperate to widen the war. Looks like they might get their wish.
I'm beat. I'll sleep on all these posts and be back tomorrow with fresh eyes.
How about my Cubbies today!!!
Sleep well, Amanda. It can be very wearing on our sanity trying to keep up with all this stuff!
I did thanks :) Yesterday made my head spin...
Geroman and others are now having their fun. This article features at The Atlantic:
Russia Slides Into Civil War
Is Putin facing his Czar Nicholas II moment?
By Anne Applebaum
Geroman retorts:
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell --
@GeromanAT
as it turns out no
so your orgasm was just premature
Others point to significant gains for Putin. The problem for so many in the West is that they think Putin, like Biden thinks of Xi, is a "dictator". It ain't like that. The liberal West always looks for the simple(minded) solution--a universal boogeyman. No, Putin has to build support before bringing on new policies. The bit about CTO martial law powers could prove to be important:
Pepe Escobar
@RealPepeEscobar
Putin wins ON ALL COUNTS.
Making an absolute ass of Western MSM again;
Rallying people to end the war quicker;
Amassing a list of traitors and 5th, 6th columnists;
And freedom to deploy CTO martial law powers.
2:45 PM · Jun 24, 2023
It's great fun skimming through the Citizen Free Press headlines for this one: the earliest start slowly, then they build up into a catastrophic "Russia descending into anarchy" crescendo, the fizzle out completely when the editors realise that it's all over.
UK probably only had around 900 of the storm shadows, and can only produce a few dozen a year.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-51223-panic-ukraine-launches
And Ukraine is claiming to already have used 100.
And Russia is blowing them up before use.
And Russia seems able shoot them down, so successful attacks are against 2nd tier targets with weak defenses, or elaborate attacks with decoys.
My guess is decision making containing nato staff in Ukraine, with the one exception that was in responses to another red line, has been spared.
They need to take out the rest of the decision-making centres now in the hope, probably vain, that either the neocons themselves will get the message, or that any wiser heads left in the Pentagon will get their act together.
For the sake of my 21 year old son, I hope the lunatics in charge somehow find the strength to calm the hell down.
I think we have, as a collective of humanity, reached the point where we must realise that it is we who are in charge and remove them as swiftly as possible.
They won't calm down, T. The main hope is that they will be "calmed down" by someone else.
Fantasize all you want but if Progozhin dies no matter how or why Putin will get the blame so how is any of this a bad thing, both men are scum of the earth and need to go.
Assuming your correct, Prigo going to Belarus... does that lead then to interrogations? Ruso version of waterboarding?
Followed the link. and clicked on another. "Putin looked into the abyss Saturday and blinked." I really have to check out WAPO more often Add a little humor to life.
F-16's won't be carrying any nukes. stationed in Poland and Romania. If used in the field of battle their bases are legit targets IMO. It's not called escalation for nothing. Punch/counterpunch.
I don’t consider Putin a sociopath so i assume you mean NATO. Further I trust Putin’s restrained ability above all others.
The nukes the F16 can carry are basically iron bomb types, so a minor threat.
Plus the F-16 is a 1976 design, with updates, going against a best in the world, modern air defense system. And the F-16 requires a clean, no debris airfield. The intakes are on the bottom. This limits the airfields that can be used.
Bottom line F-16’s to Ukraine are not a game changer.
The problem with the F16s isn't the aircraft themselves. The Russians can take them out in their sleep. The problem is where they will be taking off from. If it's Romania or Poland, then the Russians will have to decide (as Frances says) whether to hit the airfields in those countries. This will give the neocons the excuse they need to widen the war.
The problem is who will pilot the F 16's? Doubt it will be Ukrainians.
And that too. Excellent point!
I’m doubt the West is dumb enough to fly them out of airfields outside Ukraine, but we will see.
One would think so, Ray, but the problem is that the neocons have no reverse gear. Someone from within the US political/military establishment is going to have to step up to the plate and cancel these folks.
F-16’s are only one of the available options for delivering nukes, and not a great one.
And I doubt the West is willing to go first use on nukes in Ukraine. False flags of dirty bombs, attacks on nuke reactors, etc. are a different matter. And right now Russia is winning, so I doubt they will go first use of nukes.
I have no idea how long it would take Ukraine to develop their own nukes.
@raysocal - " have no idea how long it would take Ukraine to develop their own nuke".
No need to build when they can buy. Its looking like "Biden" and the Neocons are crazy enough to provide them....
Yes. Others have raised precisely that issue.