It’s been apparent for a long time that there has never been any real prospect of Russia being defeated on America’s chosen battlefield—Ukraine. The talk we’ve been hearing of the vaunted Ukraine counteroffensive being designed to make serious gains on the ground that would force Russia into a favorable settlement—favorable to the American Empire—has faded into recriminations against the Ukrainians. However, there is a new strategy being advanced in the media—one which ends up in the same way as envisioned in the previous version. Russia will be forced—by military force—to either negotiate a peace or to at least agree to a ceasefire. The basic idea is that Ukraine will slowly fall back, to shorten its defensive lines and make up for its vast losses in personnel and equipment. In the meantime, Ukraine will gear up an armaments industry—basically from scratch—while Western aid keeps the war going.
Iraq has kicked Western Firms out of oil and replaced them with Chinese and Russian firms. Interesting I had not read of this elsewhere. My guess this is more fallout of Western Sanctions on Russia, and Iran’s increased influence in Iraq. Russia also controls oil in Iraq Kurdish areas.
The powers that be must've been raised on violent video games. They seem to be indifferent to the loss of life, misery and suffering that they leave in their wake. It's easy when it's someone else's son doing the killing and dying.
Thanks very much for the excellent albeit disturbing post. I was unaware of much of this and you are doing a great service to bring it to the public in such a linear, easy to understand, macro view.
Matthew Hoh has it right, I think, about the LNG exports to Europe. And I don't think I need to repeat in any detail why I think the rest of his comment is correct. There seems to be no way to curb the destructive behavior of the politicians of the U.S. and the West but perhaps public awareness (if it can be achieved to the degree needed) will at least make them think twice about continuing this aggressive and dangerous course of action, which will have grave consequences. Thanks again, Mark.
Perhaps the US / EU escalation to throw their own kinetic events into the foray to freeze Putin OR Russian retaliatory responses OR China escalating events in Taiwan to distract the US from Russia are the types of “Black swan” actions that may become inevitable.
The USSA is walking slowly into Power Projection Collapse.
It reminds me of sports, namely the New England Patriots.
A Dynasty is created.
Next is the Mystique.
You have your Stars but lose some good players and coaches here and there over the years and plod along, winning games through intimidation and above average organizational competence.
However, your opponents game plan you, draft better, hire Analysts from Cal Tech to figure you out and proceed accordingly. .
These events, combined with your institutional ossification and plain laziness, causes a sudden collapse.
The New England Patriots are 4 and 11 this year and their coach, who has 6 Super Bowl Rings is about to be fired.
What's your actual point--if you have one? Everyone knows that Sachs isn't attempting to talk to the power elite in the US. He's talking to ordinary citizens who are trying to get informed. Sachs does also testify at the UN on occasion and is listened to there by reps of non-Western countries.
OK, which of their favored policies have they dictated to the rest of the world? And should the rest of the world allow the US and its vassals dictate "rules" that contravene centuries old standards of international law?
That's a very simplistic view. Typically, civilizations recognize their geographical and cultural limits and often draw a line, so to speak--so "always" is an over simplification. China is a good example, as also are the Indian civilizations. Russia is similar. Within those limits these civilizations have conformed to norms that have led to relative peace in their neighborhoods, including with regional nations. These civilizations have often--although not uniformly--been tolerant of different "policies" as along as those policies didn't lead to aggression. The notion of a uniformly dog eat dog Hobbesian world that you project is representative of ideologically driven civilizations: Islam, modern liberal Europe/America, also what I have termed "archaic" civilizations (following Eliade).
I'm not going to tolerate your tendentious and counter factual comments much longer. For example ...
Tibet was an expansionist empire through much of its early history as a nation--certainly back to the 7th century--and aggressively sought to expand into Chinese cultural areas as well as into Central Asia. Tibetan and Chinese history has been interwoven since then. Chinese actions in Tibet have been driven by concerns for security and stability. There are always exceptions and complications to any theory of history, but Tibet is a bad example for showing that China is an inherently expansionist power that follows a Western hegemonic paradigm..
Pretty similar. The dangerous difference I think I see is the need to bludgeon the Russians harder to force a ceasefire on a short timeline. It won't work, but the response could be very unpleasant.
Re the Ukrainians, I agree. It's a tragedy for the country, but it was brought on by their own pathology.
Wow!
Iraq has kicked Western Firms out of oil and replaced them with Chinese and Russian firms. Interesting I had not read of this elsewhere. My guess this is more fallout of Western Sanctions on Russia, and Iran’s increased influence in Iraq. Russia also controls oil in Iraq Kurdish areas.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russia-Takes-Control-of-Iraqs-Biggest-Oil-Discovery-for-20-Years.html
I got here from another article by the same author that just does not pass the smell test:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/new-us-oil-field-developments-are-sign-things-come-saudi-arabia
The powers that be must've been raised on violent video games. They seem to be indifferent to the loss of life, misery and suffering that they leave in their wake. It's easy when it's someone else's son doing the killing and dying.
Too old for video games, but maybe dungeons and dragons. No moral codes there other than do what you will - Lucifer would be so proud of himself.
Yes. He is having a lot of success lately.
I just don’t see how the U.S. can escalate further.
Some insane possibilities:
A Kalingrad blockade
Seizing Russian ships
Shutting down the Baltic Sea
Flying F-16’s from NATO countries.
The other options are so what.
More billion dollar patriot platforms the Russians can blow up?
More pressure on India and China for sanctions?
More and better weapons for Ukraine?
Western Weapons cupboard is bare.
That extended range stormshadow works, until the Russians capture the signature to train the anti missile defenses.
I don’t see how the U.S. can crash the price of oil anymore. Thanks Joe - heck of a job!
Certainly hope you’re right Ray - it’s just that Old Man Zhou is so unpredictable…leaves me dreading the worst.
I’ve been surprised this has not happened yet.
Thanks very much for the excellent albeit disturbing post. I was unaware of much of this and you are doing a great service to bring it to the public in such a linear, easy to understand, macro view.
Matthew Hoh has it right, I think, about the LNG exports to Europe. And I don't think I need to repeat in any detail why I think the rest of his comment is correct. There seems to be no way to curb the destructive behavior of the politicians of the U.S. and the West but perhaps public awareness (if it can be achieved to the degree needed) will at least make them think twice about continuing this aggressive and dangerous course of action, which will have grave consequences. Thanks again, Mark.
Thanks. I found it very disturbing myself.
Mercouris would do well to take in this post - he’s been off on tangents lately.
‘The Ukrainians are going to be the next Afghans’. - the joke will be on zelensky. The Ukrainian people won’t find it funny.
Perhaps the US / EU escalation to throw their own kinetic events into the foray to freeze Putin OR Russian retaliatory responses OR China escalating events in Taiwan to distract the US from Russia are the types of “Black swan” actions that may become inevitable.
The USSA is walking slowly into Power Projection Collapse.
It reminds me of sports, namely the New England Patriots.
A Dynasty is created.
Next is the Mystique.
You have your Stars but lose some good players and coaches here and there over the years and plod along, winning games through intimidation and above average organizational competence.
However, your opponents game plan you, draft better, hire Analysts from Cal Tech to figure you out and proceed accordingly. .
These events, combined with your institutional ossification and plain laziness, causes a sudden collapse.
The New England Patriots are 4 and 11 this year and their coach, who has 6 Super Bowl Rings is about to be fired.
Brilliant comparison!
I have to disagree with the cite “ they are so ideologically driven, they are infested with this religious American exceptionalism”.
They’re not driven by any ideology other than venality.
That's an explanation that Jeffrey Sachs advances in a fascinating discussion today:
https://youtu.be/dlKuQ3r3Mwk
Yes, the idea that our foreign policy is a “scam.” It’s not even about any “objective” or outcome, it’s just the warring itself.
He’s right. The goal is war, any war, and the profiteering that follows. Nothing more, nothing less.
*Sachs is
What's your actual point--if you have one? Everyone knows that Sachs isn't attempting to talk to the power elite in the US. He's talking to ordinary citizens who are trying to get informed. Sachs does also testify at the UN on occasion and is listened to there by reps of non-Western countries.
OK, which of their favored policies have they dictated to the rest of the world? And should the rest of the world allow the US and its vassals dictate "rules" that contravene centuries old standards of international law?
That's a very simplistic view. Typically, civilizations recognize their geographical and cultural limits and often draw a line, so to speak--so "always" is an over simplification. China is a good example, as also are the Indian civilizations. Russia is similar. Within those limits these civilizations have conformed to norms that have led to relative peace in their neighborhoods, including with regional nations. These civilizations have often--although not uniformly--been tolerant of different "policies" as along as those policies didn't lead to aggression. The notion of a uniformly dog eat dog Hobbesian world that you project is representative of ideologically driven civilizations: Islam, modern liberal Europe/America, also what I have termed "archaic" civilizations (following Eliade).
I'm not going to tolerate your tendentious and counter factual comments much longer. For example ...
Tibet was an expansionist empire through much of its early history as a nation--certainly back to the 7th century--and aggressively sought to expand into Chinese cultural areas as well as into Central Asia. Tibetan and Chinese history has been interwoven since then. Chinese actions in Tibet have been driven by concerns for security and stability. There are always exceptions and complications to any theory of history, but Tibet is a bad example for showing that China is an inherently expansionist power that follows a Western hegemonic paradigm..
There's alot in this, Mark's latest post.
One thing: If Ukraine tries to construct and operate its own munitions industry to prolong the war, Russia will simply destroy it.
Confirmed.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/12/ukraine-sitrep-strikes-on-ukrainian-weapon-production-air-defense-lacking.html#more
The video of the older Ukrainian recruits was shocking. Article agrees with this blog, nothing new:
https://mattbivens.substack.com/p/ukraines-percolating-hatred-of-america
This article should be required reading for the numerous clueless US citizens among us.
Great Article. Thanks Ray.
"reeking havoc" as opposed to "wreaking havoc"--I think it works! And I totally agree.
Pretty similar. The dangerous difference I think I see is the need to bludgeon the Russians harder to force a ceasefire on a short timeline. It won't work, but the response could be very unpleasant.
Re the Ukrainians, I agree. It's a tragedy for the country, but it was brought on by their own pathology.
"An evil man will burn his own nation to the ground to rule over the ashes"
-Sun Tzu