This post will update specific topics rather than the overall war—as far as that goes, Russia’s advance continues.
First, and you may have heard this yesterday, Jake Sullivan has publicly admitted that he drew down US Patriot supplies worldwide and sent it all to Ukraine—where the Patriot has proven ineffective against Russian missiles and have suffered enormous losses that are very hard to replace. Ignore the Sinophobia of the quoted poster, who’s keen for war on China.
The idea that America has bottomless resources and that it can indefinitely supply Ukraine without consequences has always been silly. Here's Jake Sullivan admitting that backstopping Ukraine's air defense required redirecting assets from all of America's other theaters.
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Andrew Badger @AndrewBadger_
See below Jake Sullivan's incredible admission about sending all US interceptor missiles (Patriots etc.) stockpiles to Ukraine ... underscoring the reality that HARD CHOICES are already being made about the prioritization of limited resources to a set of expanding priorities ... Primacists can live in a world of idealism (delusion) but eventually reality strikes cold and hard.
... In the 'Europe First' grand strategic paradigm these crucial weapons are being exhausted for a tertiary conflict where core US national interests aren't threatened ... all while our reserves for far more critical strategic theaters like the Asia Pacific run empty.
What is more the lack of these critical weapons systems could invite China to act more aggressively in the region given that the costs of offense will be assessed as lower (i.e., less Patriots, less loss of aircraft, etc.)
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0:16 / 0:29
The US effort to overthrow Georgia’s elected government is obviously related to the war on Russia—it goes back to 2008 and probably before that. Here’s how it works. The CIA gins up “protests” and “demonstrations” against the Georgian law requiring organizations to reveal foreign funding—kinda like our own FARA—then sanctions Georgians who act against CIA interference:
Zlatti71 @Zlatti_71
US imposes personal sanctions against Georgia
More than 60 citizens of the country have fallen under Western sanctions: representatives of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and those who are considered involved in suppressing protests against the law "on foreign agents".
The Georgian ruling party said that the US is trying to "interfere in the electoral process" before the upcoming parliamentary elections.
- RVvoenkor
The Swiss abandon neutrality:
Willem Middelkoop @wmiddelkoop
My dad, who worked as a physicist at CERN since 1960, traveled to Russia in the 1970’s to meet Russian scientists during the Cold War.
Now, CERN made the decision to stop cooperation with Russia .. after ‘ 209 years of (Swiss) neutrality’
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Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand
After some 209 years of neutrality which survived both world wars and the cold war, Switzerland chose the war in Ukraine - in which Europe isn't even officially a belligerent - to end it.
Really illustrates just how extraordinary, on a scale of centuries, the current moment is. x.com/ianbremmer/sta…
5:45 AM · Sep 20, 2024
A story not widely reported, but almost certainly targeted retaliation for strikes against Russia:
... 404 doesn't have its indigenous serious communications system, especially in military-intelligence realm. You probably have guessed it by now whose those comms are, and who mans them. A hint--not Ukrainians. Via RT:
Russian forces have conducted a strike on Ukraine’s key military communications facility, as well as a number of other high-priority targets, the Defense Ministry in Moscow has said. In a statement on Thursday, the ministry said that Russian warplanes, drones, missiles and artillery had successfully “hit the main center of special radio communications of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” plus critical airfield infrastructure facilities. Officials did not say where the center was located, nor comment on the extent of the damage. Ukrainian media and officials reported several explosions in Kharkov and Sumy Region, with several blasts also heard in Kiev on Wednesday night. According to local officials, the strike on Kharkov used several ballistic missiles.
So, allow your imagination to soar. Also, expect a series of unfortunate events (c) coming soon in NATO with some personnel dying in helicopter crashes or in accidents while repairing water heaters or wall outlets.
Regarding the strike on the Russian munitions storage site, which is in the Leningrad direction:
Armchair Warlord @ArmchairW
Based on what I can tell from low-resolution imagery a series of aboveground storage facilities in the middle of the depot (marked in red) seem to have been destroyed in the blast and ensuring fire, with the surrounding forest burned. There were several bermed pits in the area storing munitions, some of them obviously degrading and rusted and none of it particularly well-organized (fig. 3, red on the overview). That was likely the source of the large blast and fire caught on video.
Due to poor lighting it's difficult to tell if the yellow area was damaged. It consists of a series of open-air hardstands with sunshades, likely for packing and configuring munitions for movement to or from railcars at the nearby spur (fig. 4, yellow on the overview). It does not appear to actually be a long-term storage yard - that's the purpose of the bunker complex to the south, which appears to have survived the attack largely undamaged except for some singed landscaping.
6:20 PM · Sep 19, 2024
Update: I found imagery of acceptable quality to assess damage to the storage bunkers and transshipment facility on the base's east.
7-12 of the 42 bunkers appear to have been destroyed. The sheds north of it burned down, although only a few seem to have had ammo present.
There's nothing of acceptable quality to assess the west side of the facility that I've seen yet, I'll post an update if and when something surfaces. Damage to that side of the facility is likely to be significant.
What's disturbing to me is that several more of the intact ammunition bunkers show signs of cratering from above - some of them quite large, as in the bunker to the right of the R4 mark - suggesting that the attack on Toropets was actually far larger than reported and may have involved the use of heavy missiles.
Considering the likely use of Latvian or Estonian territory to launch this attack (not to mention military exercises in the area), this facility's connection to the Leningrad Military District rather than the SMO zone, and bellicose statements about preemptive attacks on Russia from the Estonian military earlier today, something extremely foul may be afoot.
It's also noteworthy that the Russian MoD has rather pointedly not mentioned the attack, not even reporting on enemy drones or missiles shot down. They've done this before when dealing with other direct provocations from NATO members.
As I’ve mentioned before, MI6 has a large presence in Estonia. If the attack used Estonian territory that is a clear indication of MI6 involvement.
The Baltics putting up dragon teeth barriers and mines shows something is up in Tallin.
Perhaps Russia sees an interesting opportunity in drawing out the war - killing as many foreign spooks and "advisors" as possible under the cover of the west's own gag orders.