Yemen's Red Sea Gambit Gaining Wider Traction

The US attempt to quickly reopen the Red Sea to all commercial shipping traffic has quickly run into complications. For starters, military experts—including those generally friendly to US global use of force—are skeptical about the chances of success. Certainly not in the short term. Without getting beyond the technicalities that we hinted at yesterday, Larry Johnson has an article today that reinforces all those considerations. In particular, he draws a distinction between and expeditionary navy—one which is supplied directly from the homeland—and a forward based navy, which relies for resupply and other logistical needs on bases located in foreign lands. The latter is what the USN has transitioned to, and it presents many problems in complex situations like the Houthi blockade of shipping traffic to Israel.

THE U.S. NAVY IS UNPREPARED FOR A PROLONGED WAR WITH YEMEN

Will Schryver weighs in with a reprise of a year old substack, in which he described (we covered this back then) the devastating results of the most expensive war game in US history, which was covered up:

Original version published July 14, 2022:

https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/lessons-never-learnedhtml…

Last edited11:50 AM · Dec 8, 2023

Now, interestingly, it’s important to note that no significant Middle East country has signed on to this US expeditionary force. To show how potentially shaky this coalition is looking, I’ll quote John Helmer:

The Austin fleet is to be assembled from the coalition of NATO states at war with Russia in the Ukraine.  Austin’s call, announced by the Pentagon while Austin is in Israel,  follows the failure of the USS Eisenhower and its squadron, with additional French and British warships, to prevent the collapse of commercial container and tanker shipping to and from Israel.

…

Bahrain on the Persian Gulf — the only Arab state included on Austin’s list — and the Seychelles, the island state in the Indian Ocean, are included to provide shore base facilities for the proposed Yemen-attack fleet. However, no country with naval bases on the Red Sea shore, territorial waters,  and exclusive economic zones extending into the waterway  — Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti  — has publicly agreed to participate or approved this escalation of the Gaza war to benefit Israel.

The Pentagon has also asked the Australian Navy for a frigate to join the Red Sea fleet, but the Australian government in Canberra is reluctant to agree, and Austin has dropped the country from his list.

All of the governments on Austin’s list, with the exception of the US, voted last week at the United Nations General Assembly for Israel to halt its operations in the Gaza war.  In this context, none of these states recognizes Israel’s right to impose its blockade of Gaza’s ports extending into Palestine’s territorial waters, the Gaza Maritime Area, and Israel’s de facto military rule of the international waters of the Mediterranean, including the Gaza Marine gas field. 

“Freedom of navigation”, Austin’s version of the legal doctrine of his Operation Prosperity Guardian, does not apply to the Gaza Maritime Area.

The question becomes, can these nations withstand the economic impact of what has become a de facto closure of the Suez Canal? The UK is now calling for a quick ceasefire of unspecified nature. There is talk of another ceasefire to trade prisoners, but the Houthi blockade is directed toward the flow of essential aid to Gaza, not to a ceasefire per se. In the meantime, there are major developments that suggest that the idea of blockading Israel—with all the blowback to the rest of the world—is gaining ground:

Iran Observer @IranObserver0

BREAKING The Strait of Malacca is closed for the Israeli ZIM shipping company. The biggest shipping company in Israel Malaysia announced that the Israeli shipping company "ZIM" will be prohibited from today docking, or transiting in the territorial waters of his country.

1:36 AM · Dec 20, 2023

My understanding, from the Malaysian announcement, is that the restrictions will apply to all Israel bound traffic, not just to the named Israeli shipping company. This is a very big deal, because the Strait of Malacca is one of the busiest maritime trade routes in the world, connecting the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean and serving as a crucial thoroughfare for international shipping. Anyone who thinks reversing Malaysia’s decision will be easy should probably reconsider that idea.

Where all this will lead is difficult to predict. Putting an end to the Israeli genocide and humanitarian blockade of Gaza seems like the direct path to reopening maritime trade routes. As one example of unforeseen consequences, we could cite the effect on Egypt. The Suez Canal provides poverty stricken Egypt with vital revenue. If a prolonged blockade leads to the Egyptian government being toppled, the most likely successor government would, IMO and based on the past, a Muslim Brotherhood oriented government that would be quite friendly toward Hamas.

Once again, look for growing political turmoil around the world in the coming year—with blowback at home. Well played, Neocons!