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Mark Wauck's avatar

Today Larry Johnson writes about the pickup in the Donbass offensive, and in doing so says something that explains why people like Schryver would have thought the war should have been over sooner:

https://sonar21.com/russias-donbass-offensive-picking-up-steam/

If this was a boxing match and there was a competent referee, this war would be called over — Technical Knock Out (TKO). The carnage Russia is inflicting on Ukraine is growing with each passing day. A year ago, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported an average of 700 Ukrainian casualties a day. Now, that number exceeds 2,000 a day — killed and wounded. The problem confronting Ukrainian commanders is the lack of trained reserves that could be plugged into failing battle lines. Ukraine has no viable system or plan in place to recruit and train 30,000 new soldiers every month. The reality is that Ukraine is throwing an untrained, unprepared cadre of men and women — many who were “press-ganged” into service — into combat, where they face well-trained and equipped Russian forces.

What Schryver--and quite a few others--didn't take into account was 1) the utter depravity of the Anglo-Zionist willingness to destroy Ukraine for their own goals, and 2) the utter depravity of Ukraine's rulers in going along with the national suicide of Ukraine.

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ebear's avatar

"Helmer believes the Russian military was largely cognizant of the AFU buildup in Sumy, and desired to act preemptively, but that their hands were tied by Putin's shortsightedness and reluctance to act boldly and decisively against both Ukraine and its NATO allies."

Hard to see how they could miss the buildup, but I draw a different conclusion, having no opinion of Putin to colour my assessment. I think it was a trap. I can't prove it of course, but it's a strategy that Russia/CCCP has used in the past which is straight out of Sun Tzu: appear weak where you are strong. Draw the enemy in, then surround him.

Notice they didn't have to pull anyone from down south to counter it. Notice how quickly they evacuated the population. Notice that the attackers are now trapped and can't retreat or be resupplied. To free them you'd have to mount another assault, which would end the same way.

An attack on the assembly point in Sumy would have gotten some of them, the rest would have scattered and any damaged equipment could be recovered later. By drawing them into a cauldron you get them all, including mercenary prisoners which scores political points. Also notice the recent prisoner swap where Russia got some of the guys from Kursk back. Normally you'd want the one's who've been captive the longest, not recently captured. Perhaps a small consolation for allowing them to be overrun in an operation they no doubt weren't aware of.

It was a significant force, and it was entirely lost. Well played I would say. Of course no one is going to admit this, and Putin appears suitably outraged and now has an excuse to up the ante, which gets the hawks off his back while at the same time building public support for a more forceful approach, which we're starting to see now.

Again, just my opinion, but it does seem to have worked out rather well for Russia.

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