Who Will Keep Us Out Of World War?

Judge Napolitano has done a series of interviews over the past week with the common theme of avoiding Armageddon—a worthy goal! Interlocutors have included luminaries like Jeffrey Sachs and Doug Macgregor, and I encourage readers to look those videos up. Here, however, I’ll lead off with a regular Friday feature—Judge Nap talking with Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern. They discuss Zhou’s manipulation and the danger of that leading us into wars that we’re not prepared for—and that would be wrong in any event:

Next I want to draw attention to a post this morning at CTH, on a topic that commenters Hal and Ray SoCa have also raised:

The First U.S. Military Engagement in an Expanded Israeli War Has Begun

What CTH is talking about, in some detail, is what was initially reported as a US warship shooting down a Houthi missile launched from where the Houthis live—Yemen. Those initial claims suggested—in defiance of all common sense—that the Houthis were trying to hit Israel. Well, it now develops that

CNN — A US warship that intercepted drones and missiles near the coast of Yemen on Thursday encountered a larger and more sustained barrage than was previously known, shooting down 4 cruise missiles and 15 drones over a period of 9 hours, according to a US official familiar with the situation.

The USS Carney, an Arleigh-Burke class destroyer that traversed the Suez Canal heading south on Wednesday, …

Arleigh-Burke class destroyers are AEGIS equipped, and one of their chief missions is to provide anti-air defense for carrier battle groups. It so happens that the Carney was doing exactly that for the USS Ford. As Hal and Ray SoCa have pointed out in comments, the US anti-air missiles are far more expensive than the cruise missiles and, especially, the drones. No doubt the US ships have plenty of missiles left, but this could be just the start of a very expensive war of attrition.

Here’s the key question: Were the missile launchers—we’ll call them Houthis—actually trying to hit USS Ford, or were they instead probing the Carrier Battle Group’s anti-missile defenses, gathering intel for later use. This incident should be very concerning to the US Navy. More generally, it should be concerning to all of us, because a successful strike on a US carrier is exactly the kind of event that could plunge us into a war with the entire region. That would be an unwinnable war. It’s a good reason for keeping carriers well out of harm’s way.

Also on a general note, Moon of Alabama today discusses the dilemma that Israel finds itself in. This situation has actually been building for decades, but Hamas pulled the trigger on it:

Netanyahu's Strategic Dilemma

Here’s the gist of it. None of these considerations should come as a surprise, but it’s all nicely gathered in one place:

Netanyahu must attack Gaza to restore deterrence. He can not attack Gaza because the urban warfare would cause large Israeli casualties. He can not attack Gaza because Hizbullah would then destroy the myth of the superior settler state even more than Hamas has done so far.

Israel, with the help of the U.S., has tried to push the population of Gaza into Egypt. From Egypt's standpoint that would be a humanitarian solution, at least as long as others pay for it. But it would cause a serious strategic problem. Resistance by Hamas and others against Israel would continue indefinitely, but Egypt would be held responsible for it. It can not and will not take on that burden.

Netanyahu's next idea was to starve Gaza. But the world will not let him do that. At least not beyond a certain point. Even the UN Secretary General has visited the Rafah crossing. Other global organizations, like the WHO and ASEAN, have spoken up. Pictures of starving people will make it impossible for the west to support that 'solution'.

Meanwhile Hamas fighters will continue to sit in their tunnels, ready to defend their land, and likely with enough provisions to hold out for months.

Israeli settlers, with the support of the IDF, are rampaging through the West Bank. They are killing more Palestinians and further enrage the global public against their deeds. This will escalate.

Israel's decision making is paralyzed. It will for now continue to talk of a ground invasion but will not launch one. It will also continue to starve Gaza.

But something will soon break. At any minute there might be a new large atrocity in Gaza or a pogrom in the West Bank. Any miscalculation in the north could launch that front into a hot war. Hizbullah could start to 'preemptively' invade Israeli proper.

But Israel's Jewish public is still demanding a war of revenge. It still needs the restoration of its deterrence and superiority.

But what if that turns out to be impossible to achieve?

No good options. When you find yourself in such a position, the great idea is to sit still for a moment and take stock of the situation—don’t go wildly flailing about. But that’s not the Neocon way. This could go bad. Very bad.

A hopeful sign is the CBS poll that I discussed the other day. Zerohedge takes up that topic (which Jeffrey Sachs also mentions in one of Judge Nap’s interviews). The times they are a-changin’:

Poll Finds Lackluster Desire To Arm, Supply Israel - Even Among GOP

Bad news for the Israel lobby and the warfare state: On the same evening that President Biden delivered an address from the Oval Office to build support for sending $100 billion in weapons and other aid to Israel and Ukraine, CBS News published a poll showing surprisingly lackluster American support for arming and supplying Israel -- even among Republicans. 

By a spread of 52% to 48%, a majority of all Americans oppose giving weapons and supplies to Israel. While that's close to an even split, Americans are very much united in seeing the latest developments as a cause for concern: 85% are concerned about a wider war in the Middle East, while 79% are concerned that the Hamas-Israel conflict could lead to terrorism in the United States, according to the CBS News/YouGov poll, which was conducted before, during and after Biden's Wednesday visit to Israel. 

…

In recent years, the long-standing bipartisan backing of Israel has been cracking, creating a dynamic where Republicans reliably back the Israel government while Democrats increasingly empathize with the Palestinians. However, in the most striking finding of the new poll, a hefty 43% of Republicans say the United States should NOT send weapons and supplies to Israel.  

Among all Americans, the poll found opposition to arming Israel is strongest in the 30- to 44-year-old cohort, with 64% opposing it. Among those under 30, 59% are against it. At the other end of the age spectrum, 64% of those 65 and older want more weapons shipped to the Zionist state.

There isn't much difference among races: 54% of Hispanics oppose sending weapons and supplies to Israel, compared to 52% of blacks and 51% of whites.

…

Looks like the Israeli propaganda machine will be putting in some overtime. Tie yourselves to the masts, lads -- Israel's hasbara machine has already unleashed the IDF sirens: 

When they start posting TikTok dancers, you know you’re been fooled…

pic.twitter.com/CSBksTNQUp

— Pelham (@Resist_05) October 16, 2023

Finally, a reader sent me a link to a very lengthy substack by Scott Ritter. I’ve read it but I won’t attempt to summarize or extract it. Suffice it to say that Ritter has “stood with” Israel all his life, up until October, 2023. He discusses his whole personal history and involvement with Israel—both on a personal level and on the level of his intensive interaction over a period of years with the Israeli defense and intel establishment. His conclusion is that he will never, ever, stand with Hamas, but he will no longer stand with Israel. Along the way there is a great deal of interest from various perspectives—historical, military, intel, personal, societal, political. Just one example: he greatly admired Yitzhak Rabin and despises Netanyahu—and he explains why.

Why I no longer stand with Israel, and never will again

In conjunction with Ritter’s article I also recommend a Wikipedia article that involves some of the same personalities and history, and because it’s very relevant to current events:

Qibya massacre