What's Up With Surovikin?

I’ve spent part of the afternoon chasing down some rumors about General Surovikin, the theatre commander for the SMO. It appears to me that these rumors—that Surovikin is under arrest on suspicion of collusion with Prigozhin—originate from predictably Neoconnish or similarly unreliable sources.

Zerohedge provides a rundown on the story—there are other elements, but this works:

Surovikin Missing? US Intel Claims Top Russian General Knew About Wagner Mutiny Plans

This thread provides reasoned grounds for skepticism.

Mark Galeotti

@MarkGaleotti

The New York Times, which often feels like the US intel community's PR agency, is reporting that the IC suspects Gen Surovikin knew in advance about #Prigozhin's mutiny. Maybe so, but were I a cynic I'd wonder if this was an info op because ...

4:18 AM · Jun 28, 2023

... Surovikin quickly issued a public appeal to Wagner mercs to stand down, making a clear statement that - contrary to previous suspicions he was close to Prigozhin - he was loyal to the Kremlin. This might have helped cleanse his record and make him eligible to be re-appointed overall commander in Ukraine or even made Chief of the General Staff after Gerasimov (he had been the front-runner).

This [Surovikin’s re-appointment] would, let's be honest, not have been good for Ukraine. Surovikin is not a nice man but he is a dangerously competent general. As I say, this is just speculation, but suggesting complicity with Prigozhin's treachery - to use Putin's words - would seem a good way of helping derail his return.

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NYT article is here:

Russian General Knew About Mercenary Chief’s Rebellion Plans, U.S. Officials Say

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, may have believed he had support in Russia’s military.

To be fair, the NYT version of this rumor is actually rather circumspect and points out that, on its face, this narrative serves Western intel purposes.