What's Up In Ukraine?
The short answer is: I don’t know. However, there’s been a lot of buzz today, much of it to the effect that Ukraine has launched a wide ranging “offensive” and has even achieved a “breakthrough” near Bakhmut. Personally, I’m not buying it. I’ll stick with the Polish general’s opinion that I quoted yesterday:
“If the Americans say now that they were building 9 armored brigades, these 9 armored brigades are only there to conduct small, shallow operational activities. If one talks about a counteroffensive, that is a term that is practically strategic in nature. For such an attack, for such a counteroffensive, one would need not 9, but rather 19-20 armored brigades” – Skrzypczak observed. The point of the spearhead apparently being prepared by Ukraine for the Spring counteroffensive, according to the general, is to penetrate deeply into Russian lines and that requires that the main attacking force needs its flanks to be protected. But, as stated by Skrzypczak, to achieve a breakthrough “this potential has to be three times larger than the one declared by the Americans.” Skrzypczak then goes on to pour cold water on the vast majority of what he himself has been saying in the past year:
“Ukraine does not have the potential to take back 20% of its territories. If she were to re-take them, she would need a 3-1 advantage over the Russian army along the entire front on the strategic level, she would need around 2 million soldiers to rout them. They have no chance of this because they do not have the equipment. The plants in the West have no such possibilities, such potential. Hence the efforts on the part of the diplomats to end this conflict as it could turn out in a few months that we will not have anything to help Ukraine with.”
What I’ve read on Twitter today conforms with that view:
“If the Americans say now that they were building 9 armored brigades, these 9 armored brigades are only there to conduct small, shallow operational activities. If one talks about a counteroffensive, that is a term that is practically strategic in nature. For such an attack, for such a counteroffensive, one would need not 9, but rather 19-20 armored brigades”
That’s exactly what the descriptions on Twitter indicate: relatively small operational activities rather than significant offensives. The Russian Ministry of Defense seems to be saying the same thing:
Masno
@NovichokRossiya
Russian MOD reports no major Ukrainian offensive, just ongoing battles.
3:56 PM · May 11, 2023
Hmmmm. Whimsical handle.
We’ll just have to wait and see.
Nevertheless there are some things going on. One is that the UK has confirmed that it has sent Storm Shadow air launched cruise missiles to Ukraine. These are relatively long range cruise missiles, capable of traveling about 300 miles.
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -
Britain has delivered long-range ‘Storm Shadow’ cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive (now let's see how Russian AD will handle them)
Exclusive: Britain has delivered long-range 'Storm Shadow' cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of...
The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive...
What everyone is pointing out is that, if launched from the very front line of Ukrainian held territory, these missiles could hit the Kerch bridge—as well as any target within Crimea or Zaporozhye (the mainland land bridge to Crimea). Of course, if the launch position were shifted all of Donbass as well as significant parts of Russia north of Ukraine could also be reached.
Approximate range of the Storm Shadow cruise missile that the UK delivered to Ukraine
The UK is touting these missiles as “game changers”, while Russia has said that it will have an “adequate response”. Keep in mind that these missiles are air launched. According to Wikipedia the launch platforms include the Tornado, Mirage 2000, Rafale, and Typhoon “multi-role” aircraft. None of those aircraft are, as far as I know, currently operating in Ukraine, nor do I know whether the missile could be adapted for use from former Soviet aircraft or possibly adapted for ground launch. The missile was developed in the mid 90s and has been used to bomb various Middle Eastern countries, but neither the missile nor its launch platforms have ever gone up against the Russian air defense, which is considered best in the world. The Russians will not forget this latest move by a country that is basically dependent on the US nuclear umbrella. I very much doubt that Britain’s own nuclear program would otherwise deter an “adequate response” in the very short term.
Meanwhile, Alex Mercouris noted today that Russia has become increasingly aggressive, reaching far into Ukraine to attack logistical centers of various types, including storage sites for munitions and vehicles as well as troop concentrations. Russia also exhibited another form of assertive behavior which, to me, seemed to send the message that the Black Sea and its airspace are Russian territory:
Russian Su-35 fighter intercepts Polish border police plane in the Black Sea
A Polish aircraft on a mission for Frontex was intercepted over the Black Sea by a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter, according to Romanian and Polish authorities.
The incident occurred on May 5, 2023, when an L-410 Turbolet aircraft belonging to the Polish Border Police was carrying out routine patrol missions in cooperation with the Romanian Border Police under the auspices of Frontex in international airspace.
The Russian pilot performed “aggressive and dangerous maneuvers” repeatedly, generating a high level of turbulence and causing major control difficulties for the Polish crew, the Romanian Ministry of Defense said.
“The Russian warplane flew right in front of the nose of the Border Guard plane, crossing its flight path at a dangerous distance,” the Polish Border Guard reported in a statement, saying the fighter came as close as 5 meters away from the aircraft. “The crew of 5 Polish Border Guard officers lost control of the plane and lost altitude
As a result, fighter jets of the Romanian Air Force and Spanish Air Force were pre-alerted by the NATO Combined Air Operations Center in Torrejon, Spain. Although they were not deployed, they were prepared to intervene if necessary.
The Polish crew managed to land safely at Mihail Kogălniceanu Airport in Romania at 13:50 after experiencing an initial loss of altitude due to the maneuvers of the Su-35 aircraft. No crew members on board the Polish aircraft were injured.
This comes after the Russian downing of the US drone near Crimea.
Lastly, I want to recommend Larry Johnson’s interview with Andrew Napolitano today. It’s embedded at Larry’s site:
MY CHAT WITH JUDGE NAPOLITANO REGARDING CIA LIES AND UKRAINE
In the article itself Larry discusses the US’s highly provocative stationing of missile launchers in Poland and Romania, which he characterizes as a key part of the predicate for Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO):
A chat with the Judge is stimulating and thought provoking, and today was no exception. One of the topics explored is what I call, “Russia’s Cuban Missile Crisis.” In 2016 the United States deployed a land based air defense system — i.e. Aegis Ashore — in Deveselu, Romania. Aegis Ashore is a land-based version of the missile system now on Aegis cruisers in the U.S. Navy. Then, last year, the United States set up the same system in Redzikowo, Poland. Only one little problem — the Aegis Ashore system can also be used to launch nuclear tipped Tomahawk Cruise missiles.
These two systems have the potential to put a nuke in Moscow within 10 minutes of launch from Poland or Romania. See the problem? This threat situation is similar to the one the United States faced in 1961 when the Soviets deployed nuclear missiles to Cuba. Just as the United States correctly viewed those missiles in Cuba as an existential threat, Russia also sees that U.S. placement of missiles as an existential threat to Moscow.
Ray McGovern, in a recent speech to a peace group in New England, does a masterful job of describing how the missile launchers in Poland and Romania are a critical predicate for Russia’s Special Military Operation (aka SMO) in Ukraine. Without those missiles looming large in the strategic picture, Russia probably would not have gone into Ukraine on February 24, 2022. When Putin speaks of “de-militarization” as one of the primary objectives of the SMO, he is not just talking about eliminating the threat in Ukraine. I believe that Russia views those missile launchers in Poland and Romania as part of the de-militarization effort.
Two points. First, one can argue whether or not Russia would not have launched its SMO but for the presence of those missiles. Putin has raised that issue repeatedly in the past, but we’ll never know for sure. Certainly it was part of the mix.
Second, in the video Larry is even more explicit when he refers to those missile launchers as an object of Russia’s “de-militarization” campaign. He states flatly that if the US doesn’t withdraw those missile launchers he believes Russia will take them out. Something to keep in mind.
My goodness, this is an interesting and informative article.
It is hard to believe that the USA government and military that I once thought were always the 'good guys' would bring about a perilous situation like this on purpose. We were the defenders. We 'rode to the rescue' -- we didn't instigate conflict and we weren't provocative, we were the protectors of smaller nations. What a fool I've been to believe in the Hollywood version of ourselves. This past seven or eight years have been so disillusioning, nothing but bullying and lies, lies, lies, i.e., our FBI (no Elliot Ness there) trying to bring down a president, our Justice Department and State Department inciting with excitement and threats the use of tactical nukes in the present conflict as if they were talking about hand grenades. The threat of nuclear war and/or nuclear accidents has been a horrific concept to the majority of normal U.S. citizens since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
What the Hell has happened to those who lead us?
To understand the historical similarities between the US placing tactical nuclear missiles only a whisper away from Moscow and the Soviets placing tactical nuclear missiles in Cuba only a whisper away from the US capital requires both an awareness and appreciation of history neither of which anyone in DC, or any of the neocons pulling Biden’s strings possess. The idea that this situation could easily escalate to WW lll hasn’t even crossed their collective minds, again, historical and political ignorance on an incomprehensible scale.
I know it’s a cliché, but those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it, with apologies to George Santayana.
To be ruled by fools is calamity enough, but to be ruled by ignorant fools is an even greater calamity.