What's Trump Up To?

Earlier today, in a comment, I suggested that Trump’s constant war mongering rhetoric and his kidnapping of Maduro and Maduro’s wife (who appears to have been rather badly beaten up during the kidnapping) may be largely driven by concerns over his poor polling numbers and the upcoming 2026 midterms. Remember that Trump told Republicans at their big meeting that if they lose the House majority he’ll be impeached. He’s probably right about that. Thus, he’s looking for ways to avoid what would be politically disastrous, given his approaching lame duck status. My speculation is that Trump believes that the use of military force will project the image of a strong leader and revive his flagging poll numbers.

That’s my speculation. My belief is that—even though, or maybe just because, elections tend to be about the economy—the days in which a president could pull that off are over. Americans are tired of war, even if the ruling class still likes it. And one of the peculiarities of our current system of governance is that the votes of ordinary Americans do still make some sort of difference at the margins.

Here’s what I’m talking about, in pictures:

NewsWire @NewsWire_US

Trump Underwater in Most States: Approval Craters Amid Mounting Economic Fears — Economist

That’s pretty gruesome if it bears any remote resemblance to what could happen in the midterms. And it just might:

NewsWire @NewsWire_US

Democratic odds of winning House in midterm elections near 80%

From polymarket.com

8:51 AM · Jan 10, 2026

There’s no good news in that, of course. The Dems are still the Dems, but this time around they’re largely keeping their mouths shut, for fear they could be held accountable for making commitments they have no intention of keeping if they get elected.

Venezuela is looking like what it almost certainly was—a failed seat of the pants political ploy that was never thought through. Word is that the US is warning US citizens to leave because the government—Maduro’s government, but now without Maduro—has arrested the general who is claimed to have betrayed Maduro to the CIA, and militias are setting up checkpoints, looking for US citizens.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

20h

BREAKING:

US calls on nationals to leave Venezuela as armed militias are setting up roadblocks and searching vehicles for evidence of U.S. citizenship or support for the United States.

Looks like nobody is going to extract oil from there.

Unsurprisingly, the major US oil companies aren’t eager to return to Venezuela in such circumstances, and prospects for any major improvement in Venezuela’s oil industry any time soon seem dim. Mexico, too, is defying Trump, despite Trump’s apparent threats to attack Mexico:

RT @RT_com

12h

Tanker carrying oil from Mexico reaches Cuba, challenging Washington’s regional pressure — Bloomberg

Mexico has become a key supplier of oil to the Caribbean island after US captured Maduro

Trump has been busy for months antagonizing Hispanic Americans, and it’s hard to see how more of this will help the GOP come November.

Still, Trump’s not slowing down. More unhinged rhetoric, only tenuously connected to reality:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

6h

BREAKING:

 Trump brags about destroying Cuba and leaving it without oil:

“Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela. In return, Cuba provided “Security Services” for the last two Venezuelan dictators, BUT NOT ANYMORE! Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last weeks U.S.A. attack, and Venezuela doesn’t need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years. Venezuela now has the United States of America, the most powerful military in the World (by far!), to protect them, and protect them we will. THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT”

And he’s plotting some of that MAGA “the hard way” goodness for Greenland, too. Interestingly—or not, it’s a viewpoint thing—British diplomats seem to agree with me:

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

20h

Donald Trump has ordered U.S. Special Operations commanders to prepare plans for a potential invasion of Greenland, according to The Mail on Sunday.

The report says senior military officials are pushing back against the idea.

This next sounds quite unhinged:

Sources cited by the newspaper claim that foreign policy hardliners around President Trump, led by adviser Stephen Miller, have been emboldened by the successful operation to kidnap Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro. They are now pressing to move quickly on Greenland, fearing Russia or China could act first.

British diplomats assess that Trump is also driven by domestic political calculations, seeking a foreign policy escalation to divert attention from weak economic performance ahead of the midterm elections, where Republicans risk losing control of Congress.

However,

Megatron @Megatron_ron

3h

NEW:

 85% of Greenlanders do not want to become US citizens - Berlingske Poll

The reason is that the island’s residents believe that the standard of living in Denmark is much higher than US.

But the big story remains Iran. Doug Macgregor claims war planning and prep is well underway, and these things tend to be hard to stop once put in motion:

Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor

BREAKING: Massive military buildup in the Middle East, US strikes on Iran look to be imminent.

The Trump administration has held initial discussions on striking Iran – WSJ

Trump is seriously considering attack on Iran including strikes against non-military targets - New York Times

What could go wrong with that? Actually, lots. It sounds like Iran is tired of being treated like a punching bag:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

7h

BREAKING:

 Iran warned Trump that any US attack would lead to targeting Israel and US military bases across the Middle East

Iran warned President Trump that any American attack would lead Tehran to retaliate by striking Israel and U.S. military bases in the region. - Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

One wonders whether the huge fake media surge about riots in Iran may have been largely ginned up as a propaganda campaign to win over support for granting “freedom”—meaning, subjugation to the Anglo-Zionist Empire—to Iranians. Not because there was any prospect of success. However, the latest news is that Iran has the situation under control.

Megatron @Megatron_ron

6m

JUST IN:

 Channel 12’s analyst Ehud Yaari apologized to the Israelis because the “regime change” operation in Iran failed:

- The demonstrations in Iran are declining, and the regime is still in control. The Israeli media overestimated the likelihood of its collapse.

- The demonstrations have shifted from hundreds of protest sites to dozens, with nearly half of them in Tehran, specifically in eastern Tehran.

- I apologize because the Iranian regime is not collapsing as some websites claim, but it still holds the reins of power.

- I apologize because the Israeli media has been exaggerating today and in recent days about the imminent collapse of the regime.

How was this done?

Iran is successfully jamming Starlink and GPS through which the US and Israel coordinate protests - Al Jazeera reports

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

7h

AP and ToI [Times of Israel] are reporting that the Iranians have succeeded in jamming Starlink. Starlink was supposed to be unjammable. It seems likely Russia sold Iran new electronic warfare systems and these are being used in some novel way to jam Starlink. This is a gamechanger.

.

Here are the two likely system they’re using to do the jamming. Both delivered to Iran in the last 18 months or so.

For now, the big question is whether the CIA/Mossad generated riots in Iran were sold to Trump as proof that he could pull off regime change. He’s been claiming that he’ll somehow protect the rioters, but if there are no more riots …

Well, I suppose he could use the suppression of the riots as a justification, but the domestic impact in the US wouldn’t be the same. This is where we seem to be: hoping and praying that somehow reason will get through to corrupt DC.