What's Going On In Poland?

Whatever it is, it’s rather interesting. The Polish parliamentary elections took place two weeks ago. Under Polish law, the party that finishes first in the popular vote gets the first shot at forming a government—and 30 days to do it in. That means that Law and Justice (PiS), which was easily atop the popular vote at about 36%, gets to try to form a government. This time around it will obviously need to find a coalition partner to do that, since it won only 194 seats, well short of the 230 it would need to form a government, even with the addition of the quirky right Confederation.

It was widely assumed that EU darling Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) would form the new government with the help of the Left (Lewica) and a group of parties calling itself Third Way (TD)—a coalition of 248. But there’s a catch.

Third Way includes the Polish People’s Party (PSL). During the days of the Polish People’s Republic the ruling Communist Party was the Polish United Workers’ Party (PZPR). PSL was a kind of agrarian adjunct to PZPR, supposed to represent the interests of the rural population. Since the end of the Cold War the PSL has rebranded itself. It appeals to the rural population with social traditionalism, but has reached out to urban voters with an appeal to economic liberalism—with surprising success. Of TD’s total of 65 seats, 28 belong to PSL deputies. If PiS can somehow peel PSL away from Tusk, then the addition of Confederation’s 18 seats would give PiS the seats it needs to form a government: 240.

Of course, the trick is that with two coalition partners there are a lot of moving parts. PiS has to satisfy each, and it can only do that by giving up some of its own control. One way or another it appears that the new government will not be one with a strong mandate.

Now, perhaps, we see more clearly what Dmitry Medvedev was up to with his recent article devoted to Poland. Here I quote from a, perhaps unlikely, source—Ukrainska Pravda:

Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council and former President, on Thursday posted an eight-thousand-word rant about Polish-Russian relations, calling Warsaw a "dangerous enemy" of Moscow and threatening it with the loss of statehood.

Source: European Pravda

Details: The article by the former president of the Russian Federation repeats Russian propaganda clichés, for example, about Poland's "claims" to western Ukrainian lands (for some reason, this topic is very popular with Kremlin officials).

Fair enough—this is a very Russian preoccupation. I’ve said many times that I believe the Poles are far too smart to fall into the trap of revanchism that Medvedev and many other Russians attribute to them. But next comes, in my view, the giveaway for Medvedev’s true aims:

Medvedev also writes about the EU's "hatred" of Poland and the Poles' disdain for Ukrainians, but separately focuses on Russia's attitude towards Warsaw.

Medvedev deploys a carrot—attached to a stick. Poles are well aware that the EU doesn’t hold Poles in high regard. It’s also quite true that Poles are fed up with the flood of Ukrainian refugees, and don’t particularly like Ukrainians anyway. Obviously, Medvedev is hinting to Poles that Russia could turn out to be a more appreciative economic partner for Poland in the future. But then comes the stick:

"In the 21st century, Russia has a dangerous enemy in Eastern Europe that was revived in the person of Poland... And it should be treated exactly as a historical enemy, considering that it is, in principle, incorrigible. And if there is no hope of reconciliation with the enemy, Russia should only have one and a very rigid attitude towards his fate," he claims.

Ah—”if”. In other words, if Poland can be reconciled to Russia it will no longer be seen as an enemy—many things will become possible. Abundant affordable energy, an export market, cooperation in security matters with regard to a very unstable Ukraine that may well revert to its traditional anti-Polish ways. All things become possible.

Medvedev explains the transformation of Poland into an "enemy" of Russia through "Russophobic revisionist policy" while at the same time recalling how, at the end of the 18th century, the Russian Empire took part in the dismemberment of the then Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

"History has delivered a merciless verdict to the insolent Poles more than once: no matter how ambitious the revanchist plans are, their defeat can lead to the death of the entire Polish statehood. Will we then mourn the collapse of modern Polish statehood? There is no need to deceive. There can only be one answer: definitely not!" concludes Medvedev.

Poles have a choice, says Medvedev. Choose wisely.

Now, it so happens that this isn’t the first time that Medvedev has launched this type of attack on the Russophobic PiS government. I’ve come up with a Polish article that addresses an earlier Medvedev “rant” against the “presumptuous Poles” (the pride of the Poles is another typically Russian bête noire). I’ll quote it here, minus the last three point commentary section, because I believe this probably reflects Polish understanding of what sounds like Medvedev’s very similar current “rant”. The author obviously understands what Medvedev is up to.

Dmitri Medvedev attacks Poland

On 21 March, Dmitri Medvedev, former president (2008–12) and currently deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, published an aggressive and derisive commentary on his Telegram messenger account attacking the Polish government, the ruling Law and Justice party, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński personally, and the Polish political elite for their policy towards Russia and its aggression against Ukraine. The text starts with a criticism of the ideas of ‘de-Russifying’ the economy and stopping imports of  gas, oil and coal from Russia, dismissing such ideas as senseless and costly for Poles. It also accuses “Polish propaganda” of “the most malicious, vulgar and shrill” criticism of the Russian Federation.

Medvedev accuses the Polish elite of being guided in their policy towards Russia not by the welfare of their citizens but by the interests of their American “sovereign” and by their “pathological Russophobia” and hatred of Russia. He ascribes such behaviour to Poland’s alleged “phantom pains” after the loss of the “great empire of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth” and the expulsion of the “Polish occupiers from the Kremlin”. He charges the Polish elite with ingratitude towards Russia for liberating Poland from fascist occupation. The former president describes Poland as a “community of political imbeciles” and its politicians as “inept vassals” of Washington with “obvious signs of senile dementia”, who are carrying out the orders of an American elite “suffering from dementia”.

All the above is really just boilerplate Russian anti-Polonism—must Poles, as well as most Russians, could probably come up with a very reasonable facsimile of Medvedev’s list of Russian grievances against the ungrateful Poles. They’ve heard it all before, many times. But, the stick that the carrot is attached to turns out to be an olive branch, which Russia—for all its vituperation—has repeatedly offered to Poland since Putin came to power. Clearly Russia is looking to the future of a Europe after the defeat of NATO, and sees enormous benefits in a Poland that can put the past aside:

At the same time, the text claims that there are no obstacles on Russia’s side to improving relations with Poland or developing beneficial economic cooperation. It evaluates the human ties between the two nations as “indispensable” and their cultural and scientific cooperation as “vital”. He also argues that there are no anti-Polish sentiments in Russia, and the friendly attitude of Russians towards the Polish people was reflected in their sympathy after the Smolensk air crash. Medvedev believes that ordinary Poles will “sooner or later” understand that hatred towards Russia will not consolidate their society, and is not conducive to prosperity and peace.

So we see the point of Medvedev’s carrot and stick overture to Poland, while Poland is struggling to form a new government—while also preparing for fallout from the increasingly obvious US bugout from Ukraine. Medvedev is telling the Poles that they’re going to need friends in the new geopolitical reality post Ukraine, and there could be far worse friends to have than Russia. The results of this courtship could turn out to be very important for the rest of Europe.