The fog of war remains intense. There are increasing accounts suggesting that Israel is encountering problems in mobilization and in munitions supplies. The kind of problems NATO has encountered in Ukraine. How serious these problems actually are—shortages of smart munitions would be the most serious—is difficult to say. CNN is reporting that the Israelis are asking for large amounts of munitions and weapons systems from the US. This would suggest that the IDF is concerned that it does not have what a ground invasion of Gaza would require—considerations not only of amounts but of kinds (of weapons and munitions). A resort to dumb bombs would increase civilian casualties—already heavy—exponentially. That might not bother the Israeli and American extreme right—the Marcos and Lindseys! in the use, the “settlers” in Israel—but it would cause global blowback against Israel after the initial burst of “We stand with Israel.” All these considerations may explain why the claimed beginning of the Israeli ground invasion, which was announced two days ago, had yet to come off. One presumes that discussions between the US and Israel are at an intense level on all these issues. Presumably we’ll get some more clarity in the coming days.
In the meantime, regional developments suggest a united front against Israel and the West is forming. One such development, which cannot but be disturbing for the West, is that the Iranian and Saudi Arabian governments have announced discussions that would lead to a united response. It all sounds serious and is quite unprecedented. It further implies the possibility of sanctions against the collective West that we haven’t seen for decades (I lifted this from Simplicius):
What could be driving these moves toward a united Muslim world are two possibilities that are much discussed. The first the possibility is that Israel is planning to drive the population of Gaza into Egypt, and even to push the West Bank Palestinians into Jordan (Jordan has rushed military forces to the border—another unprecedented move). The second possibility is that Israel is attempting to expand this conflict into an attack on Iran that would involve the US. That is a move that would, in my opinion, be militarily and politically disastrous on several levels.
Interestingly, neither Hezbollah nor Iran seem eager for a wider regional war. Although there were initial reports that Iran gave aid to Hamas and even gave Hamas the go ahead, a surprising war mongering source is now disputing that narrative—in part. I have no way to know whether or not Iran gave the go ahead, but I assume that Hamas received significant support from some relatively sophisticated actor in the region. Iran? Could be. But:
Having said all that, there are signs that Israel does have some intention to widen the war. Attacking Syria’s two major airports on the basis of a few mortar rounds crossing the border on an avowedly “preemptive” basis is not the kind of act that would calm regional tensions:
Israel launched this morning a new aggression against Syria by attacking Damascus and Aleppo airports. The objective seems to have been the detour of an Iranian aircraft bound for the Syrian capital, but it is also possible that it was aimed at temporarily disabling these infrastructures in the context of a ground operation in Gaza. Tensions are mounting in the region and it is becoming increasingly likely that Hezbollah and other actors will become directly involved in the fight against Israel in the event of an invasion of Gaza.
[video]
These attacks will certainly push Russia, with its significant military presence in Syria, into moving closer to regional Muslim states. It could also lead to more serious attacks on the illegal US military presence in Syria.
Hezbollah, in the meantime, has taken no serious military action—except this possible probe:
Lord Bebo
@MyLordBebo
Oct 11
BOMBSHELL: Hezbollah launched an invasion of Israel from the north. Hezbollah fighters attack with attack drones, paraglider saboteurs and missile attacks. This is reported by the Voice of Israel. EDIT: IDF walks back the statement.
Lord Bebo
@MyLordBebo
FALSE ALARM: The IDF has retracted has retracted the statements regarding the attack from Lebanon.
“Following reports regarding an infiltration from Lebanon into Israeli air space, no impacts were identified in Israeli territory. IAF aircraft and IDF soldiers are conducting searches. More details to follow. We ask residents to follow the instructions of the Home Front Command and act accordingly.“
Will Schryver comments that this should be concerning to the IDF:
Will Schryver
@imetatronink
Oct 11
Looks like Hezbollah may have spoofed Israeli air alert systems and freaked everyone out. That is an interesting move -- sort of "the boy who cried wolf".
If I were the Israelis, I would find it very concerning that my airspace-intrusion alert system apparently was hacked and lit up like a Christmas tree.
What that looks like is a demonstrative warning to Israel from Hezbollah to back off. That warning would amount to something like this: ‘Back off, because if we launch (and Hezbollah’s missiles are serious weapons, not like Hamas’ piddly rockets) we have the means to make sure our missiles get through. We own your air alert systems.’ That’s a pretty serious warning, and it could conceivably be a factor in slowing down Israel’s planning.
Now, we need to pivot to Russia at this point, but in the context of what we’ve already said: both with regard to Russia’s presence in Syria as well as Russia’s close cooperation with Iran and, increasingly, with Saudi Arabia. Turkey, Iraq, and Egypt also have, in different ways, close connections to Russia. The fact that all these countries appear united must be very concerning to the Neocon alliance. John Helmer has written about the significance of Russia’s overall silence. It is not, he argues, a good sign for Netanyahu:
THE SILENCE OF THE BEARS – RUSSIA IS REORIENTING TOWARDS THE ARABS
Until now Russia has never been so silent in the middle of a Middle Eastern war.
…
The silence from the Kremlin reveals how thoroughly the Israelis have burned their bridges to President Vladimir Putin, and how far, if silently, the Russian President has moved to the side of the General Staff in their assessment of Israel as hostile – …
Helmer places the blame for this on the US’s proxy war on Russia, in which Israel has unwisely gotten involved:
From a policy of equivalence and equivocation between Israel and the Arabs, Russia has reached the policy of engagement on the Arab side. The driver has been the US war to defeat and destroy Russia through the Ukraine. The longer the new Palestinian war lasts, the more clearly Russian military and political strategy in the Middle East will pursue a new anti-American line. The consequences are as great as the defeat of the US and NATO which Russia is now inflicting in Europe, and of the western sanctions war in the global commodity markets and the trading lanes at sea.
“We are witnessing a sharp deterioration of the situation in the Middle East,” Putin said in his public welcome for Iraq’s prime minister, Muhammed Shia al-Sudani, at the Kremlin on Tuesday morning. “I think that many will agree with me that this is a clear example of the United States’ failed policy in the Middle East, which tried to monopolise the settlement process, but, unfortunately, was not concerned with finding compromises acceptable to both sides, but, on the contrary, put forward its own ideas about how this should be done and put pressure on both sides, truly both — first on one, then on the other. But each time without considering the fundamental interests of the Palestinian people, bearing in mind, first of all, the need to implement the decision of the UN Security Council on the creation of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state.”
In other words, Putin is calling for—at a minimum—a return to 1967 borders.
The Foreign Ministry followed Putin later in the afternoon, when the regular weekly briefing by Maria Zakharova was advanced several days early in order to report there have been direct negotiations with the leaders of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, the Arab League, Iran, and Turkey – not with Israel.”*
N.B.: The official Foreign Ministry spokeswoman specified that Russia has not engaged with Israel over this crisis—only with Muslim countries. Zakharova also took direct aim at the so-called Abraham Accord subterfuge:
“The US bet on the ‘freezing’ of the status quo and the promotion of ‘economic peace’, as well as the use of collective formats tailored for crisis response, has not justified itself,” Zakharova said. “Everyone sees the result…The statements of American politicians and public figures calling for ethnic cleansing in the region look monstrous. They openly call for one group of people [to be] near-doomed to complete destruction. Once again, aggression, violation of the rule of law, and the caveman’s hatred have emerged on the surface of the American declarations of good looks and human rights dogmas.”
In the first direct Russian warning to the US Navy force in the Eastern Mediterranean, Zakharova added: “So far we see that the situation is developing along the path of escalation. There is a great risk of involving third forces in this conflict. And this is fraught with long-term consequences for the region and for the world.”
This is a very tough line, and is seemingly backed up with close cooperation of Russia with all major Muslim countries. I suspect that this diplomatic front will expand to include other non-Western countries, like China. But that’s for the future. Alexander Mercouris is predicting a major push for a ceasefire and creation of a Palestinian state on a sustainable basis. With the debacle that is now NATO, this heralds a possible major power shift. Interesting days.
Pretty good overview of US position, options, difficulties
https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-in-a-quandary-over-israels-war-on-gaza/
I’m sure this will be old news to most here, but Zerohedge posted a story about John Kirby saying point blank that “aid for Ukraine is coming to an end “ and that it won’t go on indefinitely! Gee, we go from “as long as it takes” to “see you clowns later, hope things work out for you with the Russia thing”…….