What A World!

I need to take care of some business today, so I’ll try a roundup before heading out. Start with PP:

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

The fall in metals prices last week that definitely was NOT a political intervention in the market didn’t even push gold or silver below their moving averages. I wonder who is holding those short positions.

For all her flaws—and everyone here knows I’m no Libertarian—MTG makes a cogent case (2:31 video):

Libertarian Party @LPNational

Feb 1

“MAGA is—I think people are realizing—it was all a lie.

What MAGA is really serving, in this administration, who they’re serving is their big donors.”

– Majorie Taylor Greene

I won’t even attempt to get into the Epstein revelations which provide a small glimpse of the vast stretch of the Anglo-Zionist empire. Instead, the big story this morning, continuing from yesterday, is Trump’s search for an exit from Iran. First, Glenn Diesen says what the ruling class hopes nobody understands—but I think most do. Many are coming to the realization that, just as MTG argue, the war on Iran is serving “big donors”:

Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen

6h

From this headline, you would think that Iran had encircled the US coastline with offensive military capabilities and was making threats.

The military representatives of the big donors have been sent to pressure their agents in our own military establishment. The problem, of course, is that our own military establishment sees the looming disaster any war would bring:

Michael Rectenwald, Ph.D. @RecTheRegime

Top Israeli general secretly visits Pentagon - Israel is reportedly concerned that President Donald Trump could reach a deal with Tehran without ordering military strikes

Michael Young, journalist based in Beirut, presents his big picture of what has Israel so alarmed (and also how Trump screwed up by yielding to Jewish Nationalist pressure, i.e., MTG’s “big donors”):

Michael Young @BeirutCalling

9h

We’re in a very interesting moment in the Middle East. When the U.S. began disengaging from the region under Obama, its elites sought to find a replacement for American hegemony. Obama, as his Jeffrey Goldberg interview showed, believed the way was to bring about a new balance of power in the region, led by Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Israelis fought this idea, arguing that the nuclear deal Obama signed with Iran was a way of giving the Iranians a greater regional role, something that would challenge Israeli supremacy.

Trump reversed that idea, cancelling the nuclear deal, and replacing it with another: U.S. hegemony would be replaced by U.S.-supported Israeli domination, which would be anchored in the so-called Abraham Accords. October 7 derailed that, but not the U.S. desire to reinforce Israeli hegemony, an objective shared by Republicans and Democrats, Biden and Trump. What we’ve seen is a much greater Israeli say in U.S. policy toward the region since 2023, as a consequence of this, with the U.S. even ignoring its own laws in arming Israel during the slaughter in Gaza, though the Americans knew that Israel was committing war crimes and crimes against humanity. It didn’t matter.

However, the success of Israeli efforts [in buying off the American political establishment] has proven to be a problem for Israel today, as we are seeing an alignment of powers—Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar, as well as Pakistan, but also a weekend [sic!] Iran—emerging to counter-balance Israel. For these countries, Israeli hegemony, backed by Washington, is the ultimate threat to their own power.

This alignment is now trying to avert a U.S. attack on Iran that would only strengthen Israel. When Netanyahu went to Washington in late December, alarm bells went off in regional capitals, seeing this as an Israeli effort to push the U.S. into round two against Iran. For now, the Israelis cannot be happy with the delay in an attack, but Trump is also a wild card who is not always predictable. Much of what takes place from now on in the region must be intepreted in this context.

Of course Jewish Nationalists aren’t happy with any delay—Iran only gets stronger the longer the delay continues.

But here are some military realities that the Pentagon surely knows, and has probably been telling Trump—urgently:

Kathleen Tyson @Kathleen_Tyson_

3h

The US military is designed for Shock and Awe, decapitation strikes, and occupation regimes led by Western-owned puppets/divisive warlords (see Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Venezuela, etc). It cannot defeat a unified and resilient Iran.

Any war with a duration more than 12 days can defeat the US, as the 12 Day War last June demonstrated.

Weapons stocks depleted by 4 years of war in Ukraine, 3 years of Gaza genocide and regional airstrikes, and the 12 Days War cannot be rapidly restored now that the Chinese licensing of dual-use exports disrupts military supply lines.

All Iranians need to do is withstand 2 weeks of attack, retaliate with overwhelming missile strikes on Israel and US bases/ships in the region, and they win.

They know this, even if US doesn’t.

Recall, however, what Steve Jermy, former naval aviator, told Danny Davis last week. The US endurance in attacking Iran can probably be measured only in a matter of days—as counted on one hand. Not weeks. Meanwhile, the Iranians are conducting aggressive drone recon of Trump’s “big beautiful armada,” no doubt preparing for missile attacks. And China and Russia are also actively helping Iran—this isn’t Venezuela—and are going to conduct joint exercises near the BBA. Here’s photo I lost track of but found again today:

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

China’s “Da Yang Yi Hao” scientific research ship is located in the Arabian Sea, near USS Abraham Lincoln, for .. scientific research activities.

Trump foolishly thought he could bluff Iran into accepting another tit for tat theater and back them down a bit. This time is different. Iran has repeatedly assured him that they are prepared for full out war on the US and Israel no matter who attacks them. And that the war will not be short. And the US knows Iran can make good on that threat.

Here’s a link to a highly recommended conversation with Alastair Crooke:

Alastair Crooke : Trump’s Iran Strategy: All Bluster, No Exit

As I’ve been arguing in recent days, Trump has simply got himself in a box with no easy exit. MoA argues that case strongly today, too:

Trump TACOs on Iran Through Negotiations

Trump would have probably liked to strike if there had been a decent chance of a short, successful war. But there was and is none. Iran would retaliate sharply for any attack and set the region on fire.

…

Trump now needs to find a way to chicken out from his grandiose threats to Iran. He has sent out feelers for negotiations: …

…

The likely outcome: Trump will have to lift some sanctions and, in exchange, will get some limited nuclear agreement with Iran. I assume that it will be softer on Iran than the JCPOA agreement which had been signed under Obama only to be trashed later by Trump.

The other demands on Iran which the Israelis had made through Trump: – no enrichment, a curb on the number and range of its ballistic missiles, an end of support for militia in the region – will not be part of the negotiations.

Those points are not of interest for Trump. He wants and needs an agreement – any agreement – that can be sold to the public has his personal success. The details will matter less to him than the fact that an agreement was made.

Israel will not like this. ...

But the U.S. is no longer the all powerful force in the Arab region that it had been 30 years ago. It is lacking the means to defend its ships and bases against attacks by ballistic missiles and drones. This while Iran has systematically build up such weapons and forces.

Iran has also gained allies. ...