War Update, Mostly Russia 7/19/25

Last night marked another massive Russian air strike on Ukraine. Odessa was hit hard, as has been happening lately. Another important target, which we’ve mentioned at least five times in the past, was Pavlograd (Pavlohrad in Ukrainian). Pavlograd is an important communications hub for Ukraine-east-of-the-Dnieper, directly east of Dnipro. It’s quite centrally located on all axes—north, south, east, west. It’s a key logistical point for supplying Ukrainian forces along the entire Donbass front. Retargeting Pavlograd is an obvious move if you want to collapse the Ukraine front around Pokrovsk—or just about anywhere on the eastern borders.

I came across an informative tweet regarding Russia’s targeting of Azerbaijani assets in Ukraine, mostly energy related—obviously, since energy is the foundation of Azerbaijan’s economy. Russia had been leaving these assets alone, due to the importance of Azerbaijan in Russia’s geopolitical calculations. That seems to have changed when Russia uncovered the Azerbaijan connection to the Spiderweb attack on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet—shortly before Azerbaijan’s role in the very similar internal attacks on Iran. As you’ll see, there’s a very logical possible connection to the heavy strikes on Odessa:

Peacemaker @peacemaket71

Russia brutally punished Azerbaijan: A key refinery blew up - Moscow just showed Baku where it belongs 

In a series of precision strikes, Russian forces hit the Kremenchuk refinery, the Drohobych oil plant and a facility in Odessa, which for years served as a logistics base for the processing and distribution of "Azeri Light" oil under the control of the state-owned company SOCAR from Azerbaijan.

These facilities were under the control of the [Azerbaijan] state-owned giant SOCAR, which made huge profits from this system - not only for Ukraine, but also for business and political circles in Baku.

According to expert estimates, Kremenchuk alone processed more than 1.3 million tons of Azerbaijani oil per year, while Drohobych and Odessa also served for sea exports - under the full control of SOCAR. This network, in which billions and political capital have been invested for many years, is now being razed to the ground – under the influence of a wave of strikes by Russian “Iskander” missiles and “Geran” drones.

Baku supplied Ukraine during the war crisis – now Moscow is closing the circle

As journalist Ruslan Ostashko points out, this oil corridor was not only an economic project, but also an informal form of support for Ukraine during the most critical months of 2022 and 2023, when fuel was the most valuable raw material. At that time, Azerbaijan, through its infrastructure and logistics, helped Kiev maintain some energy stability even in the midst of the war.

Today, with Moscow deciding to cut this channel, SOCAR is losing a key market and Azerbaijan is losing real influence in Ukraine.

Tensions are rising: Russian arrests, school closures, threats from Ankara

Eight citizens of the Russian Federation were recently detained in Baku, and footage of their humiliation is circulating on the Internet. In parallel, Russian schools are being closed, and sharp attacks on Moscow are coming from various political and security structures in Azerbaijan.

The most radical statement was made by Aygun Atar, chairwoman of the Turkey-Azerbaijan Friendship Fund and member of the Turkish National Security Council, who called for internal destabilization of Russia - allegedly in response to the arrests of members of one ethnic group accused of serious crimes.

Is intelligence coming into play - connections with Britain and Ukraine?

According to information from the "Secret Office" channel, some of the detainees have ties not only to illegal migration, but also to intelligence structures, including those from Ukraine and Great Britain. Although nothing has been officially confirmed yet, more and more sources are warning that the incident could have serious security implications – for both Moscow and Baku.

Experts: Guarantees no longer apply – Azerbaijan has come out of the shadows

According to Boris Rozhin of the Center for Military-Political Journalism, there were informal guarantees in the past that Russian forces would not attack facilities connected to SOCAR. But that no longer applies. The latest attacks clearly show that Moscow has decided to punish anyone who – formally or informally – supports Kiev.

In this context, Azerbaijan, which has so far skillfully maintained neutrality, is increasingly being drawn into direct confrontation. The diplomatic tone from Baku, the reactions of state media and the nervousness of the SOCAR leadership indicate that relations between Baku and Moscow have entered a new phase – a phase in which it is impossible to separate the economy from geopolitics.

From Telegram

I’d bet that the Russian leadership factored in every conceivable connection before they launched these strikes. Relations with Turkey and relations with Iran would be two leading considerations. They factored all that in—and then went ahead. Russia is seriously POed, and Azerbaijan has been sent a message that will probably factor into the Iran situation, as well.

Commenter Lucida sent a link to LJ talking with Alastair Crooke. I picked out this relevant tidbit:

Game Over? How Iran Checkmated America and Israel | Alastair Crooke Interview ​

We all know that a presidential finding was written during the last administration instructing the CIA to pursue operations in the depth of Russia.

Now, all it would take [to stop CIA ops inside Russia] would be for Trump to say, ‘You know, well, maybe it was signed by the auto pen. We'll try and find that out. But in the meantime, we're going to stop them attacking Moscow.’

Why doesn't Trump do that? The conclusion everyone comes to is because he can't. The Deep State is taking him over. The Deep State and other foreign interests are running this, because the simplest thing can't return the consulates can't return you know the basic you know the the property that Russia owned.

Makes total sense to me. And that leads one to ponder, Who is really in charge of Trump 2.0? I keep saying that Trump had to have made a deal to get back into the Oval Office. The terms of the deal, the parties to the deal—as the world slides toward conflict, or even chaos, the answers to those questions are of absorbing interest.