War Roundup: Russia, Philippines, Palestine

I’ll keep the Russia roundup brief. The best informed commentators all seem to agree that Russia has yet to launch a full scale offensive. Instead, the Russian armed forces are maintaining relentless pressure that freezes the Ukrainian forces in place, where they can be savaged with heavy weapons like the FAB guided bombs. By the very nature of this attritional activity, however, Russia’s forces are steadily moving forward. On the other hand, the increased emphasis on targeting Ukrainian infrastructure—especially energy related infrastructure—as well as command and control related targets appears to be an indication that Russia is in a preparatory phase. Russian defense spokesmen are also now stating that NATO personnel will be specifically targeted—probably a reference to the new NATO policy of encouraging deep strikes from Ukraine into Russia. All we can do is wait to see how this develops.

The Philippines?

One commentator on the Russia war that I listened to today—Brian Berletic—made the point that the US is withholding its most advanced weapons systems from Ukraine because the US doesn’t want to give China a preview of systems that are designated for a future war with China. Some of those systems are already being deployed to the Philippines. In the meantime, the rhetoric against China as an aggressive enemy is being ramped up by the Neocons. We see it, of course, in the nonsensical talk of China’s “overcapacity”. That’s on the large scale. But on the smaller scale—but always calculated to portray China and the Chinese in a negative light, deserving of military attack, we see this:

Smearing The 'Enemy' - A Typical U.S. Info-Op

Here is an example of a fairly typical U.S. information operation - this one against China.

On April 20 the New York Times, in collaboration with some German media, came up with this sensational headline:

Top Chinese Swimmers Tested Positive for Banned Drug, Then Won Olympic Gold - New York Times

China's own doping agency had detected tiny amounts of a banned drugs in some athletes of its swimming team. It informed, as it should do, the World Anti Doping Agency WADA and started to investigate the case:

Zerohedge has an article just this evening about deployment of our latest missile launcher to the Philippines:

US Covert Missile Launcher Touted As Game Changer In Future Taiwan War

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via AntiWar.com,

After the US withdrew from a major nuclear arms treaty [INF] with Russia in 2019, the Pentagon began to develop weapons that would have violated that agreement. Such a covert missile has now been deployed to the Philippines as part of the US military buildup surrounding China. The New York Times reports this system to be a covert missile launcher that Washington believes could jeopardize Xi Jinping’s position as president of China.

Capable of firing Tomahawks and other munitions, the Typhon launcher is concealed in a 40-foot shipping container and can hold up to four missiles. The Defense Department first deployed the launchers to the Philippines during war games late last month, after which China accused the US of "stoking military confrontation."

According to the Times, Washington hopes to use the Typhon launchers to protect Taiwan from a Chinese attack. Sources who spoke with the outlet believe that Typhon’s strike power is enough to thwart an invasion of Taiwan and even force Xi from power in Beijing if an invasion fails.

Just a reminder. Tomahawks are nuclear capable. Multi-use missile launchers are a big deal. The stationing of supposed anti-missile lauchers in Poland—which were Tomahawk, and therefore nuclear, compatible—was one of the factors cited by Putin in deciding him for war. US nukes 7 minutes from Moscow? Nyet means nyet. The bit about forcing Xi from power by defeating an invasion of Taiwan sounds a bit like the typical Neocon strategery, like, forcing regime change in Moscow by taking out a bridge in Crimea. What could go wrong? Well, there’s always the possibility that you don’t accomplish regime change and simply p*ss off the Chinese or Russians, as the case may be. Make them more determined than ever to put a stop to this nonsense.

Also by the way, that was Trump who withdrew from the INF treaty, while we here at MIH were focused on the Russia Hoax. So what was that about? I don’t claim to be an arms control expert, but one can be forgiven—if you’re Russian or Chinese—for assuming the worst when an aggressive foreign adversary decides they need to be able to fight and win a nuclear war. The difference between deterrence and a preemptive first strike capability is debatable, which potentially leads to the better-safe-than-sorry scenario.

America Must Make Sure It Can Fight and Win a Nuclear War. That's Why the INF Treaty Died.

The best way for the US to avoid war, and to ensure its survival and achieve victory if war occurs, is to have a modern, flexible nuclear capability. Such a capability will hopefully deter any and all foes, but national security cannot be based on the hope of deterrence alone. Should deterrence fail, the US must have the wherewithal to fight, survive and win a nuclear war.

What if our quest for survival and assured victory leads Russia to decide that their path to survival is ensured through … victory now? It’s not as if they’re going to twiddle their thumbs while we aggressively expand our offensive nuclear capabilities.

… The immediate reason for withdrawal is Russia’s alleged breach of its treaty obligations with the deployment of a new ground-launched cruise missile, the 9M729.

The decision by the US, seemingly pushed forward by National Security Advisor John Bolton, has been met with much chagrin, including concerns about reigniting a nuclear arms race and about playing into Russia’s hands. …

If it’s good enough for John Bolton—I don’t want any part of it!

Also by the way, these two maps may help explain why China feels a need to control the South China Sea and to maintain a presence in the Indian Ocean—it has to do with the flow of Middle Eastern oil. Of course, that’s changing now with closer Russia - China ties, but it’s still important:

Chinese bases in Canada or Mexico? Who’s looking for trouble? I’m with Doug Macgregor—the US has no strategic need to be doing this stuff.

On to Palestine! This week there’s been all sorts of buzz about a new arms deal between the US and Saudi Arabia. I’m skeptical that this is as serious as it’s been portrayed. My suspicion is that this has more to do with domestic US politics than anything else—although, no doubt, the US would like to peel KSA off from the BRICS. My reasoning runs something like this:

The Gaza genocide is hurting the Zhou regime politically—big time. An Israeli invasion of Rafah, or just an increased bombing campaign, could be the nail in the coffin for Dem presidential hopes. Therefore the Neocons need to shut down Netanyahu’s planned action in Rafah. However, Netanyahu is being held hostage to do this crazy thing by Zionists who are even crazier than he is—Ben Gvir, et al. That means the US has to offer Israel something really big to compensate for Israel cancelling a major genocidal act. Ha! Normalization of relations with KSA! KSA gets cancellation of Rafah and lots of US arms, Israel gets normalization with KSA and some prisoners released by Hamas. The problem is, I just don’t see that much of an advantage to KSA in this, to counterbalance the extremely negative reaction in the Muslim world as well as a resumption of war with the Houthis (backed by Iran). I have to wonder whether KSA has some scheme up its sleeve.

Anyway, for now this all seems to be moot. Netanyahu figures he needs a continuation of war to survive and stay out of jail:

Mega Geopolitics @MegaGeopolitics 5h

BREAKING:  Netanyahu says Israel cannot accept Hamas demand to end Gaza war. Israeli defense chief also says that Rafah offensive is imminent.

The US, however, is desperately trying to head the Rafah thing off—for domestic political reasons:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

 BREAKING:

The United States has suspended the delivery of weapons to Israel - Axios

Inside sources claim that the Biden administration held back a massive ammunition shipment to Israel last week - and this was partly the reason why Netanyahu hasn’t invaded Rafah already.

Israel's Haaretz reported that Netanyahu hoped Hamas would reject the deal. Now Netanyahu is trying to break off the negotiations, won't accept a ceasefire and wants to invade the refugee camp in Rafah.

This confirms that Israel is as weak as ever and is completely dependent on American weapons and defense.

De facto the USA is at war in the name of Israel, for now only with weapons.

The first proxy genocide in history? Meanwhile, the Israel Lobby—having brought Congress to its knees—tightens its grip over US higher ed:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING:  Universities in the United States have begun suspending all students who protest Israel's genocide

Students started receiving emails that they were suspended immediately.

It is not clear whether they are now preparing to fire the professors and bring them professors from Israel.

I don’t think this ends well.

Here’s a video that readers may find interesting. It’s 38 minutes long and probably could have been usefully condensed to 5 or 10 minutes but, hey, it’s the perspective:

The New 'Antisemitism Awareness Act' to Crackdown on Anti-Zionist Protests w/ Rabbi Yaakov Shapiro

Rachel Blevins

6,039 views May 5, 2024

With pro-Palestinian protests spreading to university campuses across the U.S., Congress has apparently decided that if they aren't able to convince the public that the demonstrations are antisemitic, then they will have to make them antisemitic ... by expanding the definition of the word.

Rabbi Yaakov Shapiro noted that the new crackdown shouldn't come as a surprise because the stifling of free speech is needed in order for Zionism to flourish. He also pointed out that the new definition of "antisemitism" Congress wants the Dept. of Education to be forced to follow, includes not only criticism of the state of Israel, but it would also make Judaism itself ... antisemitic.