War Roundup: Palestine, Russia
This will be a relatively brief war update drawn from two usually dependable sources. First we look at the war in Palestine. The short story is that the war on Gaza is going badly in almost every respect except Israel’s true aims—wanton destruction of civilian targets (hospitals, universities, etc.) and genocide of Palestinians. But the overall effect on Israel—economic, moral, military—is placing Israel in a no-win position. To the extent that the only path left for Israel is to draw the American Empire past the logistical co-belligerent line into actual combat. With that, we turn to Megatron for an impressionistic updates. I start with the oldest. The following tweets are all more recent:
Israeli Haaretz: "In some combat units, the number of soldiers who have pulled out due to mental issues is higher than or equal to the number of soldiers who were wounded in battle"
75% of the settlers who fled northern Israel after the Hezbollah attacks have now started a new life elsewhere. According to official data, about 80 thousand settlers left the north, according to unofficial data - about 250 thousand, and their number is constantly increasing due to daily attacks by Hezbollah.
For perspective on those numbers, we turn to Wikipedia:
As of 2006, there were 1.2 million residents in Galilee, of which 47% were Jewish. The Jewish Agency has attempted to increase the Jewish population in this area, but the non-Jewish population also has a high growth rate.
Those are older numbers, but the bottom line is that the region as a whole is something like half Arab. The Jewish residents who have fled are mostly not inclined to return, so there is a major demographic shift going on. Put Netanyahu’s talk of from the River to the Sea in that context. The only way that happens is through continued and expanded genocide.
The war itself has led to serious divisions in what was previously an already fractious government of Israel:
Israeli N12 media:
"For weeks, the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense tried to hide the tensions between them, but now there is no point.
“The war in Gaza and the war in the north are being waged when the two most important people in it hardly speak, and if that is not enough recently they also divide each other"
Listening to Lawrence Wilkerson today, Wilkerson stated that if Dubya (whom he frankly despises and disrespects) were president in these days, Dubya would be on the phone to Netanyahu daily. Instead …
Israeli Walla News:
"President Biden spoke today with Prime Minister Netanyahu about the situation in Gaza, according to the White House.
This is the first conversation between the two since December 23, when Biden hung up on Netanyahu to his face after the prime minister refused to release the Palestinian tax money."
It should go without saying that this is no way to run a war, although it does indicate who’s in the driver’s seat. For now. Lesser officials simply cannot speak to the head of a foreign government on the same level as their own head of state. Or they shouldn’t be able to do so. There is a strong whiff of dysfunction here. With that background, it’s hardly surprising that Israeli media should be running with this type of commentary:
Israeli Haaretz:
"According to a source in the security ministerial team: There is no future for the war, and Netanyahu is stalling to buy time and escape responsibility."
Granted, Haaretz represents an increasingly fringe minority in Israel, but its sources are almost certainly reliable in reflecting what’s going on within the Israeli government. The WaPo is also to be relied upon with regard to DC opinion:
BREAKING: The Washington Post, according to sources: "The view of Washington and many Israeli occupation army leaders is that Israel is far from defeating Hamas"
Now, with regard to the Zhou - Netanyahu conversation today, here’s an Israeli account of what was said:
Yedioth Ahronoth:
In President Biden's conversation with Netanyahu tonight, the president presented Netanyahu with two options:
"Either history will remember you as the one who refused any cooperation with the Palestinians to end the conflict and as the leader who led to October 7, or you will be the Israeli leader who gave a state to the Palestinians, guaranteed Israel's security and brought peace with Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Islamic world."
Sadly, I think this is a misguided dichotomy that shows a deep failure to appreciate the gravity of the situation. Here’s something else that happened today, and it’s much more important than nonsensical speculation about history having a memory:
Senior Israeli Officials have notified the Biden administration and U.S. Defense Officials that a military campaign in Southern Lebanon is imminent, if an agreement with Hezbollah regarding UNSC Resolution 1701 is not reached soon.
I would argue that the Israeli government’s strategy is basically a go for broke strategy that could devolve into the Samson Option.
In this view, war with Hezbollah is only a means to an end. The end is war with Iran. Israel cannot win a war with Hezbollah, much less a war with Iran. The first tweet above tells you all you need to know about that. The point of a war with Hezbollah as a means to igniting a war with Iran is that the Israel Loggy will order America to go to Israel’s rescue against Hezbollah—which Israel hopes will draw Iran into war with the US. The result will either be victory for Israel—through the US destroying Israel’s enemies—or destruction for all concerned: The Samson Option. If you think the Israeli government isn’t crazy enough to do this, consider this:
Israeli minister, Ben-Gvir:
"We must go to war with Hezbollah"
"If we do not quickly start a war against Hezbollah, it will be difficult for the residents of the north to return."
The lady was amazed and horrified by the stupidity emanating from him...
http://t.me/megatron_ron
Again, Elon Musk won’t let me embed twitter videos. Please follow the link. The lady in question doesn’t speak a word, but her facials speak volumes—she’s clearly deeply uneasy to be in such close proximity with a creep like Ben Gvir. And it goes without saying—but, wait, I’m gonna go ahead and say it—that it says a lot about Israel that a creep like that is a minister in its government.
Britannia rules the waves! But a calm harbor? Not so much …
Two British Navy minesweepers collided at a base in Bahrain and suffered damage to their hulls.
Follow the link for a brief video of this.
What is it about NATO navies?
As for Russia, from day to day the progress of Russia’s military appears to be picking up steam. The real question is no longer whether Russia has won the West’s misconceived war. It’s whether the American Deep State can hold off Ukraine’s collapse till after the presidential election. That many not be a given:
-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  -- @GeromanAT
The Russians are storming Avdiivka from all sides. There are reports of advanced detachments entering the city itself.
Ukrainian sources report that preparations have begun for Russia's summer offensive, during which the Russians plan to capture Kyiv.
NATO countries are in panic. The Baltic states are building several lines of defense.
1:16 PM · Jan 19, 2024
Who knows what Russia’s plans are? For my part, I don’t believe they’ll stop at the Dnieper. Kiev? Kiev is a city that’s central to Russian history and culture.
Impressions of a traveler to Ukraine
https://twitter.com/MariaMateiciuc/status/1743658029893984735
"But the overall effect on Israel—economic, moral, military—is placing Israel in a no-win position. To the extent that the only path left for Israel is to draw the American Empire past the logistical co-belligerent line into actual combat." Replace the word "Israel" with "Ukraine" and I get a distinct sense of deja vu.