War Of Attrition Briefs
Straws in the wind, more to come? The nature of a war of attrition is that it progresses slowly. Here are a few current data points. Some new developments, some cumulative.
The Houthis of Yemen continue their blockade of Suez and announce a new front—or, rather, an expansion of their front out into the Indian Ocean. Since they have been able to attack targets as far away as Eilat, at the extreme south of Israel, one would have to presume an equal reach out into the Indian Ocean. Accuracy is a different matter, of course. On the other hand, one should also presume that the Houthis receive support—both technical and in terms of actual weaponry—from other sources, so underestimation is a risk that insurers will need to facto in to rates. The impact is also debatable. Moving shipping routes further away from land migh arguably shorten routes—perhaps some readers are more knowledgeable on such matters:
Megatron @Megatron_ron
BREAKING:
The Houthis announced that the operation in the Red Sea is expanding.
From now on, ships linked to Israel will be attacked even across the Indian Ocean and from South Africa towards the Good Hope Road.
(Photo ilustrative)
http://t.me/megatron_ron
3:22 PM · Mar 14, 2024
This next announcement appears to have more immediate importance. Here the presumption is that the UAE and Saudis are responding to two possible sources of pressure. It’s not an either/or, of course.
The first source is domestic political pressure, which strongly favors a stronger response by the governments to Israeli genocide in Palestine. Even strong arm governments in the Middle East have to pay attention to public opinion.
The second source of pressure comes from abroad. Here we see opposing pressures. The US is undoubtedly exerting pressure on the UAE and KSA to continue to provide Israel with alternative trade routes—”land bridge” alternatives to the maritime routes that are under attack. On the other hand, with the accession of both the UAE and KSA to BRICS, there will undoubtedly be some degree of pressure from Russia and China for these new members to conform to degrees of group solidarity.
Of even more concern would be pressure coming from another fellow BRICS member: Iran. Iran is in a position to exert both kinetic military pressure as well as asymmetric pressure—by threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz or, possibly, by encouraging Houthi direct action against Yemen’s long time enemy, KSA. Further, both the UAE and KSA need to be concerned with Iranian influence in their internal politics. Shiite populations in the Arabian Peninsula, while mostly minorities, are concentrated along the Persian Gulf.
So, in light of all the above, this announcement tends to suggest that the longer the Israeli genocide and wars continue, the greater the pressure on the UAE, KSA, and other regional Muslim governments to take tougher anti-US/Israel stands. Obviously, the very existence of these alternative “land bridge” routes is an indication of the relative success and impact of the Houthi blockade:
UAE threatens to stop land bridge to Israel if Gaza aid stopped. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has issued a “stern warning” to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, threatening to stop the land trade bridge which provides Tel Aviv with crucial food supplies and other material if humanitarian aid does not enter Gaza, the Israeli website i24NEWS said in an exclusive report.
The site cited sources as saying that the UAE has given Netanyahu a choice between allowing humanitarian aid to enter the besieged Gaza Strip, or stop the crucial land bridge which was established in December as an alternative route following disruptions to sea trade caused by Houthi attacks on Israel-bound ships in the Red Sea.
As a reminder, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are helping Israel bypass the Houthi blockade in the Red Sea blocking Israeli shipping.
Again, there are many variables at play here. My estimate is that the US has already exerted the pressure it has at hand, but that the BRICS and the Axis of Resistance groups have many more opportunities to escalate pressure against Israel and the West—especially Europe.
Lastly, sanctions against Russia continue to fail. Not news, but pictures are useful in forming a picture of what’s going on in the world. First we have this Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute, previously a Chief Economist at the IIF and and Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs, moaning that it would be so so easy to tighten the screws on Russia—why aren’t the magic sanctions incantations working?
Urals oil price is up 50% from a year ago, a big windfall for Putin. This means a larger current account surplus, a stronger Ruble and a stronger economy. The West has the means to stop this by lowering the G7 cap. The EU just has to override Greece and its shipping oligarchs...
A commenter responds in amusing ad hominem fashion (that’s a photoshopped portrait of Brooks):
My face [head?] when the oil price cap fails to work like every other attempted sanction.
Meanwhile, the West is in disarray, both politically and economically, with worse to come.
That’s it!
As a European, I'm not too worried. Once the French army has routed the Russians, they can roll into Gaza to teach Hamas "un lecon" or two.