War And Geopolitical Update
Will Schryver has a very nice map in one of his tweets today. It illustrates how modern warfare has changed with the advent of long range, high precision, and—especially—hypersonic missiles. I agree with those who believe that the presence of such an enormous US Navy force in the Mediterranean is probably mostly a desperate attempt to head off a wider war, to freeze the conflict in place. That’s a strategy that shows no signs of working in Ukraine, but it may work in the Middle East, where many of the main players don’t really want war—not Israel, not Hezbollah, not most anyone else. The map is self explanatory, but I append Schryver’s speculation:
The largest fleet of warships the empire has assembled in a great many years is gathering in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. In addition to two US carrier strike groups and an amphibious assault force, several other warships from other NATO nations are joining its ranks. The true objective of this large naval task force remains unknown. The notion that it is gathering to help Israel subdue Hamas is, in my view, patently nonsensical. It is altogether possible that it is intended as no more than a theatrical flex — an ostensibly awe-inspiring demonstration of imperial military might.
If so, I doubt it will succeed in intimidating those it aims to terrify. Vladimir Putin has publicly acknowledged the gathering fleet, and announced that Russia will immediately commence, over the waters of the Black Sea, around-the-clock rotations of MiG-31 interceptors armed with Kinzhal hypersonic anti-ship missiles, whose operational range extends to 2000 km. I expect that Russian aerospace assets at its Khmeimim airbase on the coast of Syria are operating at a state of high alert, including its potent long-range air defense systems.
In Lebanon, the Iranian-affiliated Hezbollah is known to possess a substantial number of relatively capable ground-launched anti-ship missiles. It is not impossible — indeed, it may even be probable — that Iran has augmented Hezbollah's missile firepower with many modern and advanced specimens in every category. Hezbollah reputedly possesses a diverse array of 150,000+ missiles and rockets, wielded by a well-trained and well-disciplined force of ~50,000 troops. They are not an army to be casually dismissed.
At any rate ... in the end this may well turn out to have been a huge bluff from which the United States and its NATO vassals will awkwardly back away. But I am convinced most observers are greatly underestimating the potential for this to turn into a catastrophic military / geopolitical miscalculation — one which will greatly accelerate the already-in-progress dissolution of American global hegemony.
Next, I provide a transcript lifted from the Youtube page in which Doug Macgregor is interviewed: Col Macgregor: Avoiding Armageddon.
Judge Napolitano: How can we the United States and the West avoid Armageddon?
Col. Douglas Macgregor: Well, that’s the that’s the question that should be on everyone's mind in Washington, bit sadly it seldom comes up. I think the greatest challenge for Americans—even more than for the Israelis—is to understand just how profoundly the world we live in has changed since the last major war that the Israelis were compelled to fight, and that was in 1973.
Some of your observers and audience may remember in 1973 Israel was attacked by the Syrians in the east in the north, and at the same time attacked from the south and the west by Egypt. The problem was that Egypt had very limited goals. The Egyptian president was not interested in destroying or eradicating Israel. He simply wanted to regain control of the territory that had been lost in 1967. So, he moved across the canal, set up a defense, and that was as far as he went. The Syrians, of course, did try to break through, and that was somewhat desperate for a period of time . But the Israelis were able to meet that threat first, before turning their entire attention to Egypt.
This time the situation is very different!
First of all, the weapons have changed. The arsenal of rockets and missiles in the region is enormous. People are quoting numbers in the realm of a hundred and thirty thousand rockets and missiles from Hezbollah alone. We don’t even need to mention others in the region. That kind of arsenal is enough in and of itself to destroy much of Israel.
Then you have a problem with Hamas and Hezbollah and the rest of the region, and that is the rest of the region is as sick of Israel as much of the world and Europe is sick of us. And what I mean by that is that we are on the threshold of total war.
That's what no one seems to understand. If the Israelis march into Gaza—which I think would be a very unrewarding exercise for them but, nevertheless, they seem determined to do it—they will not only lose soldiers, they will fail to root out the thousands of Hamas fighters that are there. They'll get some, but they won't get them all. They will not improve their position at all with the people of Hamas or the people living on the so -called West Bank. And the rest of the region is prepared to go to war. Stop and think about it. It’s not just Iran. In fact, Iran has militias that can attack us and anyone who works with us in Iraq and Syria. That’s one part of the problem. The Iranians are not going to try to lob theater ballistic missiles at Israel because the Israelis have said they would use a nuclear weapon, but Turkey is different. And the Turks have an unhappy record with the Israelis.
Just a few years ago, Turkey tried to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. The Israelis boarded their ship, killed some of their citizens, and turned back the aid. This kind of thing did not cultivate support and friendliness in Turkey. And remember, Mr. Erdogan is the de facto leading military power in the Sunni Muslim world.
Finally, you have the Pakistanis who are very close to the Turks and have made it abundantly clear that the Turks will receive nuclear warheads and other capabilities from them if they need them in order to deter the Israelis from using a nuclear weapon.
And finally, the Turks have the largest air forces and armies in the region. The Turks can put two million men in the field in the space of a little over a month. And the Turks are ferocious fighters.
Now, all of this spells doom for the Israelis if they launch this attack on Gaza. What I just described is an unwinnable fight. Even the air power from the United States that we could commit is not going to be enough. And we all know we don’t have the troops on the ground. We simply don’t have very many soldiers or Marines at this point.
Finally, for all the John Mearsheimer fans out there:
Highlights from John Mearsheimer's keynote address at the March 24, 2017 Israel Lobby and American Policy confernece. Full video available at: • John Mearsheimer - Changes in the Israel Lobby
It sounds as if our government is encouraging restraint. Perhaps someone managed to get a ‘Don’t forget to avoid great power war!’ Slip under the White House residence bedroom door. Or perhaps Admiral Rachel Levine wrote it on the bathroom mirrors with lipstick. Gotta love that gal! Or maybe they just need a bit more time to do something really stupid. In medicine it is said ‘If the patient is not dead we can still do things that will make them worse.’
The map shows Incirlik. What a juicy target that is for all of the hardware that the Russkies have around. If Turkey decides that it wants its turf back plus a few nukes found we hold them at bay long enough to evacuate? What if our fleet is there to try to protect an evacuation of nukes and sensitive material from Incirlik? How about Syria? We have small forces there that the Turks could run into the ground. What if the Turks just decide to go for it?