Very Interesting Situation Map Of Ukraine

The reason I regard this map (below) as particularly interesting is because it was put out two days ago by a Polish think tank—Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich. Literally that means the Center for Eastern Studies, but the “East” they’re referring to is Central and Eastern Europe, Balkans, Caucasus and Central Asia. The Centre is wholly funded by the Polish state, so the assumption has to be that the orientation will be pro-Ukrainian, at least at the present moment. I think another fair assumption that the information that went into the map is as reliable as one can imagine—it’s probably based on reporting from Poles who are present in Ukraine in various capacities, some official and possibly military personnel. That’s speculation, but in the circumstances it’s reasonable.

The map is totally in Polish, so you may have trouble recognizing some of the city names. Of most relevance:

Dniepr = Dnipro

Charków = Kharkiv

Kijów = Kiev

OSW – Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich @OSW_pl

Najnowsza mapa pokazująca stan rosyjskiej inwazji na Ukrainę na godzinę 11:00 3 marca.

What should jump out at you immediately is just how close the Russians are to complete control of the Dniepr Zaporoże river crossings. That means a huge “cauldron” in eastern Ukraine, encompassing the bulk of Ukraine’s most capable military units. Also note that, while Russian offensive operations in the Kiev region are not on the scale of their operations in the east and south, it probably won’t be long before Kiev, too, is isolated. Most of the major cities are within the Russian net at this point.

In that regard, here’s a tweet of interest that was RTed by a Polish observer:

The Chud of Kiev 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 @_x45d

Russia appears to be moving S400 missile defence system into Ukraine (presumably from Belarus).

If you want to understand how this fits within Russian military doctrine:

Putin’s Bet

Despite early struggles, a determined Ukrainian defense, and widespread condemnation, the Russian campaign in Ukraine may yet achieve its objectives.