Very Brief Ukraine Updates

These updates are all geared to the strategic situation.

First, a map of the Ukraine/Moldova/Romania/Transnistria intersection. Here’s what you’re looking at. At the right hand of the map is Crimea—Russian territory. In the bottom left corner is Romania. The area within the red square is actually mostly Ukraine—Budjak. Now, in the upper right corner of the red square you can see where the Dniester River enters the Black Sea. That’s where the strategic bridge is located, and just upstream is where Transnistria starts, following the Dniester in a N/NW direction. If that bridge is put out of commission, land communication from Ukraine to the West is effectively cut off.

marqs @MaarQs_

@MarQs__ @bobrealism Yeah but it means UA military movements are confined to a road that is only a few KM's from Tiraspol... Russia would have a field day in cutting off supply if it decides to mount an attack. Then we have a large flat area cut off from reinforcement.

Next, just a bit of the big picture in two tweets:

₦₳V𝚜𝚝é𝚟𝚊 🇷🇺 @Navsteva

The longer this war goes on the more Ukraine will lose. Clearly, that is more than fine with the Anglo-American establishment, the people who run the war. Their goal is to bleed Russia. They don't care about Ukraine.

Politico gets it:

₦₳V𝚜𝚝é𝚟𝚊 🇷🇺 @Navsteva

Politico: “...the new fight will likely be dominated by artillery barrages and tank battles as infantry units square off over the flat fields of eastern Ukraine.” And, in that kind of battle, Russia has complete, and total, superiority.

To understand this next one, you need to know that the UK has endorsed Ukrainian strikes on Russia:

zerohedge @zerohedge

RUSSIA'S DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS LONDON'S DIRECT PROVOCATION OF KYIV TO STRIKE TARGETS ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY WILL IMMEDIATELY LEAD TO A PROPORTIONAL RESPONSE - RIA

What would a proportional response be? That all depends.

This one should have been expected. The remarkable part about it is that Poland has the largest coal reserves in non-Russian Europe, but, well, climate change. They still use lots of coal, but they import it from Russia. They can go back to mining their own coal, but that’s not something you can start up overnight:

₦₳V𝚜𝚝é𝚟𝚊 🇷🇺 @Navsteva

Per Politico, 55% of Poland's gas imports come from Russia, and 75% of Poland's imported coal. Reportedly, the gas has been cut off. Offical statements to be released later today.

onet.plNieoficjalnie: Rosja wstrzymała dostawy gazu do PolskiRosja wstrzymała dostawy gazu do Polski w ramach kontraktu jamalskiego – dowiedział się nieoficjalnie Onet. W Ministerstwie Klimatu zebrał się sztab kryzysowy. Nie ma jeszcze ze strony rosyjskiej komunikatu, czy to spełnienie ultimatum, jakim groził niedawno Władimir Putin. Jeszcze dziś mają zostać…

Croatia shows the way:

Dagny Taggart @DagnyTaggart369

🇭🇷 is against Finland and Sweden joining NATO. President Milanovic : "To involve Finland, which is 50 kilometers from St. Petersburg, in this, I think it is dangerous charlatanism.”

And finally, a follow up on Croatia’s statement. The US and Australia are freaking out about the Solomon Islands entering a security pact with China. The Solomon Islands are thousands of kilometers from anywhere, including Australia. But Russia is supposed to accept a NATO Finland just 50 km from its second largest city:

Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi

So this isn't about Ukraine's right to choose allies, as we also saw with US and Australian threats against the Solomon Islands. Through Zelenski the clown and the mindless Azov Nazis, the US and UK are determined to sacrifice Ukraine.

BBC News (World) @BBCWorld

US wants to see a weakened Russia https://t.co/LdTkzitDQ1

It’s the difference between a Rules-Based Order—i.e., heads we win, tails you lose—and a Law-Based Order.