Update On Pskov Drone Attack

ADMIN: Tomorrow I’ll be having my annual eye exam, so it’s quite possible that I won’t be able to do any posts.

---

The drone attack on the Pskov airport this evening has some special characteristics. For one, Pskov is quite a long way off from Ukraine. First the big picture map, then a map that zeroes in. You can see that Pskov lies just next to the Estonian border:

CaucasusWarReport

@Caucasuswar

Ukraine has no geographical border with the Pskov region. It can be said that this drone attack if flown directly from Ukrainian territory on Russian military facilities at a depth of 690 km would be the first in the world's military history.

5:30 PM · Aug 29, 2023

Note what was said: IF flown from Ukrainian territory it would be a record. What are the alternatives? We’ve heard of sabotage groups operating inside Russia and possibly Belarus (often said to be linked to British MI6). The drone attacks on Moscow are often suspected of launching from inside Russia. But there is speculation going round …

Big Serge

@witte_sergei

The Pskov airbase is an odd target for a Ukrainian drone attack - quite remote from Ukraine, and it mainly houses airlift craft.

I sure hope they didn't launch from Estonia or we're going to have a problem.

This is a photo of those airlift planes. Four are reported to have been damaged, possibly totaled:

Here’s the reason why people are speculating that the launch did not come from Ukraine. There were reported to have been at least 20 drones in the strike package. So people are saying things like this:

the idea that over 20 drones could fly undetected over the entire country of Belarus and well into Russia to make direct hits on an airbase is absurd and highly unlikely

Makes sense as a working hypothesis.

Geroman speculates that the attacks could have come from Estonia or Latvia—yellow lines on the map show those routes—and that the goal is escalation:

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 

@GeromanAT

someone wants to escalate the conflict to the Baltics

4:47 PM · Aug 29, 2023

Still, a launch from inside Russia, or possibly Belarus, is possible. I have no idea what the current situation at the Russian border is, but infiltration from Estonia, Latvia, or Belarus (to launch from within Russia) is probably a possibility, even in these times of war. The entire border region from the Ukraine - Belarus border north to the Baltic is heavily wooded and swampy. It’s a vast an rather wild region—in fact, the Poland - Belarus border is home to the only remaining European Bison. This link specifically mentions the Estonian and Latvian borders as possible points for illegal entry to Russia. MI6 is said to basically run Estonian national security. The assassins of Daria Dugina left Russia to Estonia, so that should be a clue at least as regards possibilities:

How easy is it to get in and out of Russia by illegally crossing its border?

My own view is that the goal is not actually escalation but, rather, that this representa a desperate attempt to persuade Russia to do a ceasefire in place. I can’t see it working.