Update 2: Did The Leak Actually Head Off An Israeli Attack?

First I’ll basically link to a mainstream liberal outlet (Axios) that provides a vanilla flavored account—US officials are concerned, not too much more. Israel was preparing for a strike, yackety yack.

Pro-Iranian account leaks alleged U.S. intel on Israel's attack plans

I don’t want to turn readers off from following the link. Reading between the lines pays off in some respects. First of all, we get confirmation about those Israeli preparations. That’s real, not made up.

Between the lines: The report, if accurate, would suggest very close and detailed surveillance by U.S. intelligence of Israel's preparations for an attack on Iran, including the use of satellites to spy on operations carried out at Israeli Air Force bases.

• The potential leak could be the sign of very serious security breach within the U.S. intelligence community that resulted in top secret classified information reaching a Telegram channel affiliated with Iran.

What they're saying: A U.S. official told Axios that the alleged leak is extremely concerning, but that he doesn't believe it would influence Israel's operational plans against Iran.

• A senior Israeli official said that the Israeli defense establishment is aware of the alleged leak and takes it very seriously.

Here’s the thing. The intel data had to be shared within the US government. Certainly the military would have received it at the highest levels. The article speaks of the “intel community”, but that’s a very broad term. The question would most likely be—since pinpointing a random individual is difficult: What institution has the greatest interest in avoiding war? That would likely be the military. So that would be the first place to look for the leak. Good luck with that, although a determined effort could find it.

But here’s a more interesting—albeit unverifiable take. Note that Larry Johnson states that the level of the Israeli prep may militate against an imminent attack—this is speculation, in his opinion. Practice is one thing, scheduling an actual attack follows on that but depends on so many factors. So the assertion that an actual attack was scheduled but averted due to the leak may be simply speculation. But, hey, what’s life without some spec?

Megatron @Megatron_ron

EXCLUSIVE:

Israel planned to attack Iran on October 15-16, but leaked top secret documents from the Pentagon delayed the attack. Israeli media such as Walla News confirm this.

An informed source within the U.S. intelligence community has shared with us an extremely sensitive 'top secret' U.S. intelligence document from the NGIA, dated October 15-16, detailing Israeli preparations for an extensive strike inside Iran

According to the report, the U.S. has observed the Israeli Air Force handling ALBMs (air-launched ballistic missiles) like 'Golden Horizon' (at least 16) and 'ROCKS' (at least 40) at Hatserim airbase since October 8. If all of these are used, it would be a major attack.

From October 15 to October 16 the Israeli Air Force also handled several ASMs (air-to-surface missiles) at Ramot David and Ramon airbases, indicating an imminent attack.

Additionally, the Israeli Air Force carried out an LFE exercise on October 15 to practice air-to-air refueling and combat search and rescue operations with a large number of aircraft, including at least three KC-707 tankers, one G-550 Gulfstream AWACs aircraft, and possibly fighter jets.

This classified report originates from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, part of the U.S. Department of Defense.

@Middle_East_Spectator

1:32 PM · Oct 19, 2024

Make of it what you will.