Understanding Trump's Negotiation Games
To understand what Trump is up to with his Peace/War flip flopping—at least in his tweets—we need to go back to the disaster that precipitated the ceasefire. That was the attempted snatch and grab of at least a portion of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, somewhere near Isfahan. That attempt ended in a disaster, the full scope of which has been carefully hidden from the public. It also, famously, led to an emotional, screaming meltdown by Trump, which led to him being excluded from the situation room of the White House. The reports are that Trump kept screaming that he was going to be turned into another Jimmy Carter (also of Iran ill-repute).
That disaster—which was supposed to allow for an exit from war with a claim of victory—instead led to the termination of the bombing campaign and a ceasefire. It also provides us with a bottom line for understanding everything that has followed—the necessity of avoiding the appearance of being a second Jimmy Carter.
Seen from this perspective, Trump’s constant on/off, Peace/War switching makes sense. The Iran war is dominating the news. Therefore, Trump—who initiated the war—has to show that he’s both a strong figure, rather than the hapless goof that he is, but he also needs to show that he’s in control of a process that will lead to a good outcome. The threats of war—worse than ever before—are intended to portray himself to the American public as a commanding figure who dictates terms and bullies anyone who gainsays him into submission. The regular announcements that peace is nigh are intended both to manipulate the markets—especially the price of oil—but also to reassure Americans that, for all the over the top threats that never seem to happen, there is a calm mind directing the world (and especially America) toward a happy ending.
The reality, of course, is that Iran is in control and is dictating terms. Trump’s agency is largely limited to attempting to fine tune the optics of any deal, such that he doesn’t look like the loser that he is—or, at least to provide some plausible talking points. So, we see that most recently Trump was on the verge of a complete surrender to Iran’s terms—but then he seemed to pull back. But not too far. He really is desperate to settle, but he can’t allow that to be perceived by Americans. How long this can go on is anyone’s guess, but it will probably be dictated by domestic politics:
People like Robert Pape see Trump’s gyrations, accompanied by a military buildup, as steps up the Escalation Ladder. My counter is that the unempathic Trump is simply using American service personnel as props in his campaign to avoid the fates of Carter and Biden, and to one up Obama. The costs to military preparedness, America’s standing in the world, and to the economy simply don’t factor into this campaign—except to the extent that they affect his political status with Americans. That’s looking ever more shaky. Could that lead to Trump lashing out at Iran. Theoretically, yes. However, I would still argue that the fundamentals are so stacked against Trump that, in the end, he’ll be driven to accepting Iran’s best offer:
"Trump kept screaming that he was going to be turned into another Jimmy Carter (also of Iran ill-repute)"
What scares Trump more than dead troops is *captured* troops:
Boomers hate Iran because of the endless/nightly "Iran hostage crisis" coverage (after they deposed the Shah).
If this repeated, Trump would be reliving this neocon nightmare - but w him as the "weak" president :-)
Donald,
Nobody's gonna mistake you for Jimmy Carter. You do understand that Jimmy was actually a human, as opposed to being some kind of a lizard, like yourself.