Ukraine Update

Today looks like it’s time for a small update on the fighting in Ukraine. Avdeevka is perhaps the most fortified Ukrainian stronghold. It’s the fortress city from which the Ukrainians have used artillery to inflict civilian casualties on Donetsk City. This is a big victory for Russia and could signal further breakthroughs. There is heavy activity all along the front, from south to north—constant Russian pressure forcing Ukraine to commit what reserves they have.

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  -- @GeromanAT

The Battle for Avdeevka is lost for Ukrainians - but the battle is not over yet. AFU will either try to fight its way out of the city - or hold on to the last man to gain time for a better line of defense further in the West. One is clear - Russian forces won't make it easy for AFU - no matter what they will try. Artillery and aviation is working - RF is pinning down AFU on the outskirts - making it harder to leave post - and moving deeper into the center to split the cake for good.

12:54 PM · Feb 7, 2024

both - Ukrainian and Russian sources report Russians are dropping an insane number of FABs on the remaining AFU positions in Avdeevka - more than 40 counted in the last hours - while RF have now basically FULL fire control on the remaining supply route - looks like AFU will be wiped out there in the next 48h - or they will call VOLGA

FABs are gravity bombs that come in many sizes, but these are the very heavy variety for use against deeply fortified positions. The US provides such bombs to Israel for use against Palestinian civilians.

VOLGA is the surrender hotline the Russians have set up for Ukrainian troops to use.

Military Summary @MilitarySummary

Information is coming from different sectors of the front about multiple breakthroughs by the Russian Armed Forces along the entire line of combat contact. There is an operational crisis, and if the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot stabilize the situation, the crisis could instantly develop into a strategic one.

In the near future, American journalist Tucker Carlson will publish an interview with Putin. This is expected to be another blow to a weakened Biden and Zelensky, who has almost lost all hope.

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell -  -- @GeromanAT

and we saw how it works in the last 24h. Russia broke through on several locations. AFU is in a real operational crisis. And this tactics (to attack everywhere - even if just a little) - is also used all along the lines. AFU had to shift reserves to keep Avdeevka open - Russia attacked towards Terny - and Kupyansk - AFU is shifting forces to the north - RF is advancing in Marinka and south of Avdeevka. So - again - we won't see any "big arrows" in the coming months - there is no need for that at all. And the idiotic assumption by "Western Experts" - that Russia "will take Kupyansk as a gift for Putin to win the elections" is another sign of desperation in the NATO camp - they create another "time line" - "Russia will take this or that unit 24th of Feb - or until elections" - this is another attempt to create a virtual victory for the losers club. Russian military doctrine has nothing to do with "we have to take that to show the West" - for Russia this war is like all others - take out the enemy - and try to avoid idiotic losses just for political reasons. But I'm sure the idiots in the NATO camp won't understand this at all. All their military decisions were based on idiotic assumptions and PR.

Big Serge @witte_sergei

Avdiivka is collapsing in real time. Incredible. Russia is bombarding the remaining corridors, and it looks like the Ukrainian evacuation order was real, as well.

4:58 PM · Feb 7, 2024

I agree with Danny Davis’ assessment today that it’s questionable whether Ukraine can avoid collapse before the November US elections.