Ukraine Update, 12/17/22
Let’s start with rumors that Douglas Macgregor’s speculation—seconded by hints from Ukrainian General Zaluzhny in his recent interview with The Economist—is about to come true:
All the above is speculation—but it’s informed speculation. There’s a reason for what’s going on, even if it’s a diversion. Lviv, of course, is the hub of weapons shipments to western Ukraine across the border from Poland. In that regard, it’s worth pondering this from Tass—Russia appears to be issuing a very point warning. Note, too, that DoD appears to be walking back that talk of sending Patriots:
Now, Will Schryver has a series of tweets that present a point of view that is worth reemphasizing. The references to German and Russian tank warfare in WW2 isn’t entirely accurate, but the main point remains so we won’t get into that. We’ll lead this off with another reference to Zaluzhny’s interview with The Economist:
Ukraine started this war with a well supplied army. That army was destroyed, then reconfigured using whatever could be scrounged from NATO. That army is now on the point of destruction as well.
With that in mind:
Add to this the significance of the most recent Russian missile strikes:
ayden [photos at link]
During its briefing on yesterday's missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that decoys were used during the strike to deceive Ukrainian air defense. At the same time, positions were opened and four radar stations of the Ukrainian S-300 air defense systems in the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions were destroyed.
It is interesting that the destruction of four radar stations mentioned by the Russian defense department coincides with the data of the Ukrainian General Staff, which in its report yesterday indicated the use of four Kh-59 and Kh-31P aircraft missiles.
If the situation described by the military of both sides really took place, then we can make the assumption that the beginning of SEAD/DEAD of Ukrainian AD during long-range missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine has started.
Does this mean an offensive in South Central Ukraine—the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions? We’ll have to wait and see.
We referenced Douglas Macgregor’s predictions, above. In recent interviews he remains steadfast. One of his predictions all along has been that our NATO vassals will, one by one, fall by the wayside and abandon this mad war on Russia. Check this out—even the UK appears to be having second thoughts:
Obviously Sunak isn’t acting entirely on his own. This development hints at internal disagreements at a high level. This is of a piece with increasing reports that NATO is simply tapped out.
Two recent interviews with Macgregor are very worthwhile. If you’ve followed Macgregor’s commentary on the Ukraine conflict you’ll be familiar with some of what’s discussed. However, these interviews go far beyond simple updates on the conflict—they’re more akin to the long conversations with Vlahos.
The Macgregor segment in the first interview, on Rumble, begins at about the 34 minute mark. It deals heavily with the Patriot story and Macgregor is extremely informative in that regard. Toward the end of the segment with Macgregor (about twenty minutes?), Macgregor again makes his argument that Russia will act with overwhelming force to get this thing done—but with preparation that will minimize casualties on the Russian side while maximizing Ukrainian casualties. He states that the northern half of Ukraine is now frozen enough to support offensive operations—which plays into the idea of an attack from Belarus to cut Ukraine off from Poland.
Putin's next move will be DEVASTATING, and NATO is out of options
The second interview is longer and more rambling—the interviewer, Geoffrey Bloom, has a lot to say (follow the link below for his bio):
The interview is about 50 minutes long, but ends up being rewarding. This interview gets into more geopolitics (eventually). Again, Macgregor stresses that the US is really only a land power in North America, or in expeditionary situations which are fraught with difficulties in the long run. He cites DeGaulle’s critique of NATO (“England is an island and American doesn’t live in Europe”) in support of his argument that we are about to see the demise of NATO.
It's only December:
Tuomas Malinen
@mtmalinen
·
Dec 15
#Finland is effectively approaching a state of collapse.
Our medical services have been over-run (lack of nurses), sky-high electricity prices have forced people to live in cold houses and mass bankruptcies loom.
The culprit? The government of @MarinSanna .
#WEFpuppets
Two articles offering somewhat differing perspectives, but from similar premises:
https://sonar21.com/western-hysteria-ramps-up/
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/ukraine-sitrep-more-missiles-attack-plans-artillery-hits-morale.html#more
This passage quoting a Ukrainian soldier from The Kyiv Independent is a bit mind boggling:
“Our first and second lines of defense are relatively stable, but it comes at a great cost,” said Ivan, whose unit and exact posting have been kept undisclosed for security reasons.
“Some units are simply running out of people. From what I saw, in only one fight, we had around 10 of our guys killed, never mind the number of wounded. Not everyone could be extracted from the battlefield, some just bled out where they lay.”
That's stability? The soldier goes on to suggest that the Russians aren't actually suffering many casualties.