Trying To Figure Out Trump's Aims

There’s no doubt that Trump is taking DC by storm in his first two weeks. The Ruling Class and Deep State are pretty much totally set back on their heels. The few pathetic protests and lawsuits are unlikely to slow Trump down much. Another sign of who’s winning is that ALL of Trump’s nominees look like they’re going to be confirmed. That tells me that the senators are afraid of Trump, that they’re afraid of what cats may jump out of the DOGE bag. All that is to the good.

On the other hand, there is some reason to fear that Trump could be overplaying his hand in foreign deal making, bluffing without the ability to back his bluff up against an opposing side that knows exactly what is and is not in Trump’s hand. I think we’re coming to a better understanding of his deal making tactics—throw up all sorts of narratives, sometimes contradictory, often aimed at specific audiences who may not agree with one another, with the goal of inducing some movement on the other side. Still, Trump’s recent remarks on the war on Russia may touch a raw spot for Russia and could spark real blowback from the normally unflappable Putin.

We’re all familiar with how Trump works by now. One day it’s, ‘Oh, yeah, of course Russia has legitimate security concerns. I have a great relationship with Putin.’ The next day it’s, ‘Putin is destroying Russia. He better make a deal with me before I sanction the sh*t out of Russia.’ Putin, so far, has pretty much laughed it all off and simply restated Russia’s well known positions. No movement.

Yesterday Trump tried a different and very crass approach—and I think I’m being kind. Danny Davis played the video clip of Trump’s remarks at the beginning of an interview with Doug Macgregor, and I’ve done a transcript of both Trump as well as the surrounding discussion. Now, with regard to Macgregor, I tend to regard his reactions as those of someone with a preference for straight talk and who can’t really grok Trump’s style. In his remarks Trump treats this tragic war—started by the Anglo-Zionists—as a business transaction of sorts. Apparently Trump thinks that this approach may spark some sort of exchange with Putin, but there are limits. Trump may have crossed the line, because Putin has to answer to the Russian people, and this war is not a business deal for them. See what you think:

Ukraine Russia Peace Talks: Trump Wants Kyiv's Minerals

DD: As we appear to be getting closer and closer to actual negotiations between President Trump and Vladimir Putin over the Russia Ukraine war and trying to bring that to an end, everybody else is trying to get their two cents in there and trying to figure out what's going to happen and where where their piece of the pie is. Unfortunately, there's a lot of different pies that seem to be coming into play that might not have been self-evident earlier on, and one of those is going to be some of the natural resources for Ukraine and how that figures in to any kind of end of war negotiations.

Yesterday Trump was being asked about how the negotiations were going and when is he going to talk to Putin and you know and how all that's going, and he dropped what was for some a bit of a bombshell--he's looking for payouts for the United States.

Trump: One of the problems we have with the Russia Ukraine situation is that we want to see some equalization, because we're in for close to $300 billion dollars and they [Ukraine] are in for $200 billion dollars less. Why are they in for less? Because Biden never asked them for money. He never said, 'You got to pay!' All he did is hand out money. So we're talking with them [Ukraine] right now and we're actually working some deals right now so we have some some guarantees and some other things to keep that whole situation going. We're telling Ukraine they have very valuable rare earth. We want [a guarantee to back up the money that we put up.] We're handing them money hand over fist, we're giving them equipment. Europe is not keeping up with us. They [the Euros] should equalize. Look, we have an ocean in between. They don't. It [a war on Russia] is more important for them than it is for us, but they're way below us in terms of money [expended on the war]. They should be paying at least equal--they should really be paying much more than us, but let's say equal to us. They have spent billions and billions of dollars below [what we have]. So we're looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they're going to secure what we're giving them with their rare earth and other things.

Note two things. First, the money angle. Trump is saying, ‘Hey, we fronted money for the war and we want it back.’ Putin will hardly be sympathetic. Second, Trump appears to be hinting that if the US gets these guarantees, collateral for more aid to Ukraine to “keep that whole situation going,” the US will keep the war on Russia going. Again, Putin is unlikely to be moved. At this point, as we’ll see, continued war is in Russia’s interest (as Prof Mearsheimer has pointed out). Macgregor will point out the problems with what Trump is saying.

DD: That was really interesting because this is literally the first time that Trump has even mentioned anything about basically getting paid from Ukraine. But it's not the first time the issue was raised. Here is a confidante of Trump's from back in November.

Lindsey!: Ukraine is still standing. This war is about money. People don't talk much about it. It's in our interest to make sure that Russia doesn't take over the place. We can make money and have a economic relationship with Ukraine that'd be very beneficial to us with peace. So Donald Trump's going to do a deal to get our money back, to enrich ourselves with rare earth minerals.

DD: Yeah--enrich ourselves! But Doug, as we were talking a little bit before we came on the air, they might want to slow down a little bit on this idea about getting rich on Ukraine and rare earths.

Mac: Well, Dan, setting aside for a moment the callous disregard for human life which is evident in the comments made by the president and, as you say, his sidekick Lindsey Graham, what we've got right now is a situation in which 1.2 to 1.5 million Ukrainian lives have been lost and destroyed. That doesn't seem to figure prominently in anybody's calculus. The notion that from the beginning this was about money, excuse me, is interesting but not really that plausible. If we go back and look at it, the business was always about harming Russia--which of course backfired badly. The only thing we've harmed is ourselves and, of course, we''ve fatally harmed Ukraine.

In other words, a demand for “equalization” as a bargaining chip with Russia not only is unrealistic but it’s also highly offensive. Macgregor doesn’t mention this aspect at this point, but Russia has also suffered losses—nothing like Ukraine’s but significant nevertheless. Trump’s words come across as whining in this context. It’s also utterly unrealistic.

But we need to understand what president Trump, I think, is referring to. [Rare earths ... go into microcircuitry, microchips, a lot of our more sophisticated weapon systems. Most of Ukraine's rare earth resources]--in fact, virtually all of it right now, about $7.8 trillion dollar worth of it--sits in the region of eastern Ukraine that is populated with Russians. The Russians already control it. So you can write off the rare earths that are there right now--unless you want to do business with President Putin, and that's an entirely different question. On the other hand, the remaining wealth of Ukraine is largely agricultural. That is in the west, and ukrainians still control that--except that, in reality, they don't, because Cargill, Dupont, and Monsanto have apparently bought up the rights for something in the neighborhood of 80 to 90% of the agricultural land in Western Ukraine. So I don't know what president Trump is expecting to get. ... Finally, let's keep something else in mind which is depressing. [Trump] is continuing to behave as though Russia is this existential threat to us, our enemy. It isn't. Now, he knew that four or five years ago. I don't know what's changed, but it appears that he signed on for the CIA - MI6 theme, which is that Russia is the enemy and has to be treated as such and viewed as such. You put all of this together, it's very hard for me to imagine a set of circumstances under which he could meet with President Putin that would be favorable to any sort of arrangement strategically between ourselves and Russia.

In that last portion, I believe that’s an example of Macgregor taking Trump’s words too literally. I think this is Trump trying to deal, but the problem is that he’s been unable to get Putin to budge so far and as a result has unwisely become offensive by portraying the US as somehow an agrieved party. This comes at a particularly unfortunate moment, because the Russian media has been playing up Ukrainian and NATO atrocities against Russian civilians in the Kursk area. The Russians are saying that the Brits in particular have egged the Ukrainians on in the hope of precipitating a frontal assault that would incur heavy casualties. Trump whining about America’s lost billions will make a very bad impression on the Russian public, who are viewing these atrocities on TV. It will also only toughen Putin.

By the way, I know you've been watching what's happened in Kursk oblast, where the Ukrainians sent in a force which was partially Ukrainian and also partially International, and they committed terrible atrocities up there, killing large numbers of Russian civilians. The Russians have shown it on television--basements full of bodies, buildings full of bodies, just wantonly murdering people. That is going to stop. The Russians have now committed Chechen forces to go in there, and I can tell you there will be no prisoners. ... So it's a matter of how far do we push the Russians and when do they finally pull the string and say, 'Enough's enough!' and lose patience. Thus far, thankfully for us, Putin has exercised enormous patience, [but] things are moving tragically away from us and in his favor.

In light of all of this, I want to briefly return to the issue of Western ownership of much of Ukraine’s best agricultural land—some of the best in the world. The combination of Ukrainian atrocities—egged on by the Anglo-Zionists—and Trump whining about wanting to get our money’s worth out of Russia’s Ukrainian brothers may offer the strongest reason yet for Russia to punish the West by going all the way to the Polish border. Perhaps I’m wrong, but it seems to me that, while Putin may overlook much in Trump’s rhetoric, Trump may have gone too far in this.

Obviously Trump wants to play to the American public and show what a great deal maker he is, but there’s no obvious reason why Putin should play along with that. In fact, there are many reasons for Putin and Russia to distrust the US—after all, Trump will only be around for four years but Russia has to live with the US as part of the global order for the indefinite future. This also provides an incentive for the Russians to simply push westward. And then where will Trump be?

As I write, Trump is meeting with Netanyahu. As with Russia, so also with the Middle East. Trump wants to get out looking like a winning deal maker, but he has a poor hand. If more war breaks out in the Middle East—which is the last thing Trump needs both with regard to domestic matters as well as with regard to deal making abroad—Trump will own it. Having forced Netanyahu to pause his genocide, everyone will know that any resumption received Trump’s go ahead. It was a halfway measure and an unwise one, attempting to split the difference between the Israel Lobby’s influence over him and human decency. More war is likely to end up being a broadened war with world economic impact. The best Trump can do at this point is probably to temporize, but it’s an unenviable position to be in when he’s trying to extricate himself from the mess of a war with Russia as well as manage a war with his own Deep State at home.

By the way, for an interesting discussion of much of the above, I suggest a listen to Prof. Mearsheimer and Judge Nap: Prof. John Mearsheimer: Can Trump Control Netanyahu? Mearsheimer points out two things right up front. First, he maintains that it’s too early in Trump’s administration for Trump to attempt any dramatic action in the Middle East. He also believes—unlike most other commentators—that Netanyahu may secretly prefer to keep the current status in quo going for a while. Second, he downplays the touted billion dollar aid package to Israel, pointing out that it will come out of already scheduled monies. In other words, he downplays the idea that we can see a definite direction in Trumpian policy so far.

On the other hand …

Trump To Restore 'Max Pressure' On Iran With EO Aimed At Driving Its 'Oil Exports To Zero'

Given that Trump has, er, trumpeted the past success of this policy of his, this doesn’t necessarily come as a surprise. However, the world is a very different place than it was during his first term. In particular, the Russia - Iran relationship is quite different now. The world cop role of the past is far less likely to be accepted. However, if this turns out to be another rhetorical ploy aimed at coercing a deal? But Iran hasn’t really proven to be coerceable in the past. This could end up being a tight rope act by Trump. We shall see.