Trump's Peace Plan For Russia

According to a new Reuters article the Trump team is floating at least three plans to make peace with Russia. Weirdly, all three yammer on about Ukraine—a situation that is rapidly swirling down out of control—rather than addressing the very clear proposals that Putin presented in his draft treaties way back in December, 2021. Basically, Trump’s peace plans for Russia amount to Russia pretending that America never was at war with Russia and so Russia should make concessions to Ukraine, which has lost. A lot has changed since December, 2021, and none of those changes suggest reasons why Putin should engage with any of these American face saving dodges.

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated

According to Reuters, Trump's team proposes three "peace plans" for the war in Ukraine. None of these plans include Ukraine joining NATO. The proposed plans are:

- Freezing current front lines (General Keith Kellogg's plan)

- Creating a demilitarized zone (Vice President Jay D. Vance's plan)

- Autonomous zones in eastern Ukraine (Former intelligence chief Richard Grenell's plan)

Trump is willing to provide more weapons to Ukraine only if peace talks begin and warns Russia of increased support for Kyiv if they refuse.

6:49 AM · Dec 4, 2024

None of that looks serious from a Russian perspective. Moreover, it appears doubtful that Congress would buy into a restart of flushing money down the Ukraine toilet after Mikey Johnson’s current stop. The Reuters article is fairly detailed and, from my reading the tweet above fairly represents the 3 plans that the article presents. Here is some of the additional discussion. I’ll say this up front—I’m glad to see JDVance in the mix:

The proposals by three key advisers, including Trump's incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Army Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, share some elements, including taking NATO membership for Ukraine off the table.

Trump's advisers would try forcing Moscow and Kyiv into negotiations with carrots and sticks, including halting military aid to Kyiv unless it agrees to talk but boosting assistance if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses.

This is obviously the wrong approach. Putin has repeatedly stated the truth of the matter—that the war is a war of America against Russia. Negotiations between Moscow and Kiev are pointless, from a Russian point of view, because Kiev is unable to offer the new European Security Architecture that Putin has demanded.

But Trump may find Putin unwilling to engage, ...

"Putin is in no hurry," said Eugene Rumer, a former top U.S. intelligence analyst on Russia now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.

The Russian leader, he said, shows no readiness to drop his conditions for a truce and talks, including Ukraine abandoning its NATO quest and surrendering the four provinces Putin claims as part of Russia ...

Putin, Rumer said, likely will bide his time, take more ground and wait to see what, if any, concessions Trump may offer to lure him to the negotiating table.

Duh! Why would Putin be in a hurry to help Trump save face? Nothing in his past dealings with Trump provides any reason for Putin to do Trump any favors—and Trump is the one who really needs peace. Further, Putin would be a fool to accept Trump’s format, which implicitly presents Russia as an aggressor and the US as a peacemaker. Problem for Trump: Putin’s not a fool. Putin will want to observe DC politics before even responding in any meaningful way—other than an outright rejection.

Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt noted that Trump has said he "will do what is necessary to restore peace and rebuild American strength and deterrence on the world stage."

And Putin should rush to help Trump accomplish that, because?

Trump would supply more U.S. weapons to Kyiv only if it agreed to peace talks. At the same time, he would warn Moscow that he would increase U.S. aid to Ukraine if Russia rejected negotiations. NATO membership for Ukraine would be put on hold.

Saying that publicly is an excellent way to get Putin to flatly reject any negotiations. Russia’s key demand is to be treated as the great power that it is. Demeaning threats will doom Trump’s much needed end to the war on Russia.

Ukraine also would be offered U.S. security guarantees, which could include boosting weapons supplies after an accord is struck, according to that proposal.

Another complete non-starter. Ukraine is part of the Russian civilizational area and Russia will not permit any outside meddling in Russia’s affairs. Period.

The Kellogg plan, which hinges on increasing aid for Ukraine if Putin does not come to the table, could face blowback in Congress, where some of Trump's closest allies oppose additional military aid for the Eastern European nation.

And Putin will want to watch this dynamic play out a bit.

"I don’t think anybody has any realistic plan for ending this," said Rumer, the former U.S. intelligence officer.

Certainly the Trump team has not come up with any realistic plan from extricating the US from its disastrous war with Russia—not for public consumption, at any rate. Putin, on the other hand, has had very realistic plans on the table since December, 2021. And now Russia is in a position to dictate terms. Funny how losing a major war puts you at a disadvantage—looking at you, Anglo-Zionists! Two other key factors that further disadvantage Trump. First, Russia has expended very significant amounts of blood and treasure, and Putin will not betray the Russian people by selling them short. Second, Putin knows exactly who the Anglo-Zionists are and why they can’t be trusted. Until Trump can internalize these facts, his efforts will be for naught.