Trump's Dilemmas, Part One

Words worth pondering:

Will Schryver @imetatronink

We are led to believe the course of empire is shaped by whom we elect. It is plainly not so.

There is a continuity of oligarchic power and policy stretching back many generations.

It imposes its will.

The trajectory of events is not amenable to the voice of the people.

Remember when Trump was going to be the peace president? That’s not working out so well right now. Let me repeat.

Going back to Trump 1.0 Trump’s strategy—he was quite open about this—was to do a deal with Putin. The idea was that Russia would sell out China so that Trump and the US would be able to “deal with” China. Unfortunately, Putin realized that once China had been “dealt with” the US would circle back to “deal with” Russia. So no deal. The result was that Trump piled sanctions upon sanctions on Russia and armed Ukraine to the teeth—sending Ukraine all the offensive systems that Obama had refused to send. As Trump later bragged. Until he pivoted to the war being Biden’s war. Funny. Or not.

Then four years later came Trump 2.0, but even before the election Trump explained his peace plan—the boneheaded Kellogg strategy. It ran something like this: Get Putin and Zelensky in a room and tell them they can’t leave until they make peace. If they don’t, they get whacked hard by Trump. If Zelensky is the problem Trump cuts off the aid. If Putin’s the problem Trump will pump Ukraine so full of weapons it will make Putin’s head spin.

Since the inauguration Trump has been breathing threats and blandishments alternatively—against Russia, Iran, Yemen, China, Denmark, Canada, etc. Nothing has worked. In fact, the problems Trump finds himself keep getting stickier. He’s been walking along a cliff edge, flirting with a plunge into war. He appears to have thought—maybe Israeli spy Mike Waltz sold him this story—that a short and sharp lesson to the Houthis would allow Israel to eventually complete their genocide without inconvenience. That has worked out very badly—and looks to be getting worse.

The reality is, the only actual leverage that the US has when it comes to “having lots of fun running the world” is its nuclear arsenal. Even Russia doesn’t want to bet that US sub launched nukes won’t work better than the ones the US gave the Brits. That nuclear leverage is probably the only reason our carriers remain afloat, in the last analysis. But that doesn’t allow for much flexibility, and that’s the danger with making threats and engaging in risky conduct. Sadly, being the peace president was always a ploy.

The latest from the Middle East:

War Intel @warintel4u

Ben Gurion Airport Closed After Yemeni Strike.

Runways are being cleared of debris.

Hebrew Channel 12 reports both Arrow 3 and THAAD systems failed to intercept the missile.

Houthis are warning whoever’s listening that Ben Gurion is a dangerous location—are they extending their sea blockade to an air blockade? This—the ineffectiveness of our AD against a single missile coming from 2000 km away—is really bad news for the US military, and Russia, China, and Iran are undoubtedly following this closely:

Patarames @Pataramesh

Basically Yemen proves that multilayered missile defenses, including  THAAD, can't reliably defend:

- Against single launch...

- ...of daytime launched missiles under risk of bombardment

- Of missiles not designed to reach 2000+km & due to lighter warhead  easier to intercept

(Lowered ballistic coefficient  lower terminal velocity)

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

So it's the 4th Ballistic Missile launch from Yemen in 48 hours.

What Americans should be concerned about is not the damage done by these missiles, but the fact that THAAD, ARROW fail to intercept them.

Lesson: THAAD can't defend Americans against Iran, the DPRK or China

Israel is making the usual threats. Will Trump allow the US to be dragged into a no-win war? If he does, he’ll have no one to blame but himself.

The Cradle @TheCradleMedia

BREAKING | Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reports, citing officials, that Israel will respond forcefully to Yemen's targeting of Ben Gurion Airport, and that after this attack, Israel no longer considers itself "bound by any restrictions."

No restrictions, eh? Does that mean expanding the genocide? Trump’s failure to rein in Israeli genocide coupled with his reckless rhetoric is putting him on a slippery slope to war.

Meanwhile, Israel is looking to expand its war in Syria, after getting some aerial pushback from the Turkish Air Force the other night:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING:

Israel's Channel 13 reports that IDF, will send out call-up orders to thousands of reserve soldiers tonight.

An invasion on southern Syria is possible.

Megatron @Megatron_ron 

BREAKING:  Israeli airstrikes on targets near Damascus, Syria, powerful explosions can be heard

And more sabotage in Iran? Are these terrorist attacks the work of the US supported MEK, perhaps given the go ahead and support by the now departed Mike Waltz?

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING:

HUGE explosion reported at Iranian power plant West of Tehran

Megatron @Megatron_ron

BREAKING:

Another massive explosion in Iran

An explosion occured at a motorcycle factory, leading to a large, currently uncontrolled, fire - Mashhad, Iran.

Who lost Japan? Look, I’m in general sympathy with the targeted use of tariffs, but not the Shock and Awe approach. Remember, Japan caved to the US years ago and relocated many auto factories to the US. They also cooperated on the monetary front by buying up our worthless paper. Who can blame them now if they’re ticked off?

Megatron @Megatron_ron

NEW:

Japan threatens to dump U.S. Treasury holdings if trade negotiations don't go well - Reuters reports

Japan the biggest overseas holder of the US debt held roughly $1.13 trillion in Treasury Securities.

Next is China with $784 billion, according to the US Treasury.

Is Trump pivoting to escalation against Russia, as he promised/threatened?

Brian Berletic @BrianJBerletic

US-Europe Waste No Time in Fully Restarting Proxy War with Russia

US-Europe have aided Ukraine in a number of attacks over the last day or so with Western intel assets guiding naval drones, cruise missiles, and other Western-provided munitions in attacks across Crimea and other Russian territory.

Western military commanders and assets are being used including surveillance drones to oversee the operations, and as the New York Times has since revealed, these strikes are planned and directed by US, not Ukrainian, commanders;

This follows failed efforts by the "Trump administration" to dupe Russian into a ceasefire European troops (as directed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth) could then use to create a long-desired buffer zone in Ukraine to freeze the conflict just as the US did in Syria following failed attempts to topple the government there;

Russia, for its part, never appeared to pause even for a moment and is likely fully prepared to continue advancing while weathering these Western-armed and enabled attacks;

It's unlikely the US-Europe have given up on the idea of a buffer zone, it will now devise a way to do it the "hard way;"

Hopefully this is a wake up call for Trump supporters - Trump not only tried to dupe Russia, he blatantly lied to his support base about seeking peace while surrounding himself with neocons who instead always sought to win their proxy war;

Don’t bet against this man:

Megatron @Megatron_ron

JUST IN:

Putin says Russia has the strength to successfully end the war in Ukraine even without NUCLEAR weapons. He also said that he "hopes it won't be necessary."