Trump/Iran; Is This What The SCOTUS Has Been Waiting For?

OK, before we get to the SCOTUS, we need to take note of a victory for Trump. Trump successfully stiffed Netanyahu—that seems to be the obvious takeaway from Trump’s media post and the lack of a joint press conference after the meeting. The Jewish Nationalist demands were, of course, totally unreasonable. They always are—it goes with the ideological territory. There are a variety of reasons for why Trump grew a backbone, despite the extreme Jewish pressure for war.

1. Trump’s polling is a disaster—and getting worse. The economy, Epstein, war instead of peace, genocide—it’s all bad for Trump’s polling. Below we’ll discuss pushback from Congress on tariffs. There are no positives.

2. The region, the Middle East, is up in arms against this and major countries—Turkey, Egypt (!), KSA, Pakistan—are forming a common front against Anglo-Zionism. That’s another disaster.

3. Russia and China appear to be all in in support of Iran. The degree of support they’re offering could contribute to an escalation of #4.

4. I’d be willing to bet that the US military has warned Trump that military action won’t get him what he wants and could result in significant losses/casualties. That could have very serious strategic consequences.

5. Everything and anything bad that results from 1-4 could spell the political end of Trump’s second term and guarantee impeachment.

Thus, Trump “insisted” on continued “negotiations” with Iran. That may just be a posture. There may be no need for a deal—the real point could simply be: no war. In point of fact, in his statement Trump doesn’t even promise war if there’s no deal. The bottom line is that this makes Trump look like he’s able to stand up to the Jewish Nationalists after all. We shall see, but for Trump it’s a reprieve.

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This has to be seen as an inflection point for the Trump regime [I have no idea why the link is red instead of blue]:

House votes to slap back Trump’s tariffs on Canada in rare bipartisan rebuke

Here’s the bipartisan part:

Six House Republicans voted for the resolution, and one Democrat voted against it.

The point is that this was the first of what will be a series of votes on tariffs. These resolutions will go to the Senate, where the word is that Dems are confident they can get them passed—back in October the Senate narrowly passed its own anti-tariff resolutions, and the tariffs have only gotten more unpopular since then. Trump, presumably, will veto them all, and he was quick off the mark with the usual threats:

“Any Republican, in the House or the Senate, that votes against TARIFFS will seriously suffer the consequences come Election time, and that includes Primaries!” the president posted on social media.

Everyone knows that tariffs are taxes and that under the US Constitution taxes can only be imposed by a vote of Congress. The case challenging Trump’s unconstitutional imposition of tariffs for any reason or no reason has gone to the SCOTUS, has been argued, and is only waiting—and waiting—for a decision. At the oral arguments it was clear that CJ Roberts, among others, recognized that tariffs are taxes. The entire tenor of the oral arguments was decidedly against Trump’s attempt to hijack Congressional powers. And yet we have had no decision, and precious little pushback—up till now—from Congress.

My suspicion is that the SCOTUS has been reluctant to go out on a limb in a dispute between the two political branches of government—that is, without support from one or the other of those two branches, Legislative or Executive. These resolutions may get vetoed by Trump, but they still express the sentiment of Congress and thus provide backing for the SCOTUS. In addition, the elapse of time has allowed the effect of the tariffs on consumer budgets to sink in among average Americans. That, too, provides backing for the SCOTUS if they rule in accordance with the Constitution. Anecdotally, I was buying athletic shoes this morning and the owner of the mom and pop shoe store I go to—whom I know to be conservative—expressed his unhappiness with price hikes due to tariffs. He pointed to a pair of Vietnamese made Saucony shoes (I buy American, btw) that had just gone up +$30, and even referred to “King Trump.”

We shall see.